Analysis: This Year’s Election a Win-Win for Montana

By Robert Struckman, 8-28-08

The presidential election this year is a win-win for Montana, said Bob Brown of the Center for the Rocky Mountain West in Missoula.

Both candidates will enter the presidency with some knowledge of western issues, and maybe with Montana on their minds, said Brown, a Republican and former Montana Secretary of State, early Thursday.

Most of the attention has come from Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who has visited Montana five times so far this year, which Brown suggests will have made a real impact on him.

“So he’s more interested in Montana issues and has some personal experience here,” Brown said. (Over the Fourth of July weekend Barack and Michelle Obama came to Montana and stayed with Gov. Brian Schweiter, so the nominee hasn’t simply flown in and out but spent time on the ground. Obama also spent the night in Billings this week.)

Although Montana leans conservative in presidential elections, Obama has the state’s longtime progressive ethic in his favor.

“There’re a couple things worth remembering. Historically, Montana has not been a very Red state, to use the modern terminology,” Brown said. “We’ve elected only two Republicans to the U.S. Senate,” one in the 1940s and then Conrad Burns in the 1980s and 1990s. “Democrats have been most of the last century. Republicans have only been very competitive for the past 25 years.”

Montana seems to be returning somewhat to the traditional pattern, he said.

Brown thinks Obama has a realistic but slim chance to win Montana, especially if Republican candidate John McCain continues to take the state for granted.

“I think he should visit Montana,” Brown said. Even if he doesn’t, McCain will bring his knowledge of the West.

If Obama wins?

“He’ll know more about Montana than past Democrats have. It’s a win-win for Montana,” he said.

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