Quick and Dirty Number Crunching
Democrats Surge (95%) in Montana Primary
In Montana, the "red-state-turns-blue" theory is on display after Tuesday's primary. Predictions about the Clinton/Obama race firing up Montana Dems holds true as the party sees a 95 percent increase in Democratic voters compared to the 2004 presidential primary.By Courtney Lowery, 6-04-08
Photos by Alexia Beckerling
Montanans went to the polls in droves for Tuesday’s primary, and predictions about an “energized” Democratic party were realized, surpassed even. Unofficial results show 181,986 Democratic ballots were cast, compared to 93,543 in the 2004 presidential primary, a jump of 88,443 Democratic voters and a 95 percent increase.
Overall, turnout was more than 45 percent, according to Secretary of State Brad Johnson’s office. And, that’s likely to climb a little higher as final tallies come in. If numbers hold, it will be the highest turnout for a primary since 1994 (when turnout statistics were higher before the National Voting Rights Act).
Sen. Barack Obama’s 102,544 votes (56 percent) surpassed the number of votes the entire Democratic field got in 2004, and Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 75,053 was more than John Kerry and John Edwards combined. Click here for the unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s office.
As the last primary voters of the season, Montanans seemed to relish the chance to, as several said, feel like Iowa or New Hampshire for once.
“It’s just been electric. That’s all I can say. Everybody, young and old, wants to vote and that’s the way it should be,” said Phyllis Vining, a volunteer in Missoula.
The attention both campaigns gave Montana—with multiple tours, advertisements and organizing—certainly paid off for the party but Obama’s thorough campaigning, via flocks of volunteeers, especially in the college communities of Missoula and Bozeman helped pump up the numbers.
Missoula gave Obama an overwhelming win with 66 percent of the county’s Democratic vote, and more than 14,500 more Democratic ballots were cast compared to 2004. But the surprise came in Bozeman and Gallatin County. There, Obama posted a 70 percent to 28 percent win; almost 9,200 more Democrats showed up to the polls, compared to the last presidential primary. Helena and the Bitterroot Valley also saw big turnouts for Democrats.
But some of the biggest boosts in Democratic voters came in Montana’s Indian Country and in the far rural reaches of the state. Big Horn County, home of the Crow Reservation saw a 326 percent increase in Democratic voters over 2004. Obama, who made a big splash visiting the reservation last month, got 77 percent of the 2,736 Democratic ballots cast there.
Phillips County (seat: Malta) was another big county for increasing Democratic turnout. There, the number of Democratic ballots cast went from 197 in 2004 to 693, a 252 percent increase.
Other counties showing big increases from 2004 were: Silver Bow (Butte), 212 percent increase; Gallatin (Bozeman), 168 percent; Lake (Polson), 164 percent; Ravalli (Bitterroot Valley), 150 percent; Valley (Fort Peck Reservation), 148 percent; and Missoula, 143 percent.
All told, 277,138 ballots were cast Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s office. Democratic ballots made up 66 percent of the total, while Republicans cast 34 percent. Here are the comparative numbers from 2000 and 2004 presidential primaries.
2008
Total Votes Cast: 277,138
D: 181,986 (66%)
R: 95,232 (34%)
2004
Total Votes Cast: 220,210
D: 93,543 (42.5%)
R: 112,747 (51.2%)
2000
Total Votes Cast: 223,419
D: 87,867 (39.3%)
R: 113,671 (50.9%)
Reform: 617 (.3%)
Stay tuned in the coming days as we dig further into the county-by-county numbers to see if predictions about the rural/urban divide between Clinton and Obama held true in Montana and as we talk to Democrats and Republicans across the state about what this all means.
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Good to talk to you - photos coming soon. In the meantime, here is an article about voter turnout in Montana.
Wassup with the IDENTICAL vote cast total for Republicainians in 2004 and 2000 primaries at 112,747 eggzacketully?
So who's to say if the "democrat count" is higher or the scam was played in a state that plays the pick up any ballot game?
I personally like being able to pick up any ballot, but to VOTE for who I want--not to SUBVERT the democratic process based on some mouthy ideological talk show host. My response to those R's voting for Hillary.... "HEY, THANKS for supporting the Democratic party! Your vote is appreciated!" Got some scowls and "I am NOT supporting the Democratic Party!". "But you are, you are voting on a Democratic ballot for a Democrat--Hillary no less! Thanks again!"
Lots of fun.
I do feel sorry for those independent voters people in states that require a party declaration and then they cannot vote in the primary.
Overall, from 2004 there was a 14% decrease in Republicans voting in the primary this year (and in 04 there was only one presidential candidate on the ticket by the time it got to IN and MT - just like this year).
So, it will be interesting to see what happens in Nov.
I fit the mold of the Republican voter - older, white, conservative, Christian woman - concerned about national security and our country's economic security - and that's exactly why I'm voting for Obama. John McCain and George Bush seem bent on taking us into a third war - and this time I don't think the rest of the world is really going to stand by while we make another pre-emptive strike. They won't have to fire a shot. Venzuela can shut off the oil (they supply 17% of our oil) and Chavez is sympathetic to Iran, China can shut off the credit card that George relies on to pay for the current wars (they have no interest in seeing their supply of oil drop by 40% as it did in Iraq after we invaded), OPEC can stop accepting US dollars for oil sales - as Iran did. Once other countries start shedding deposits of dollars (which has been happening in the past 2 years), the value of the dollar will start sliding really fast. Did you know that we are at 50% of the Euro as compared to where we stood 8 years ago. Once that starts happening - our dollar's value against the Canadian dollar will drop - and our number#1 supply of oil will escalate.
Not a single shot will need to be fired. When George or John declare war on Iran - nothing will be able to save our economy or our country then.
Think about it - do some research - then vote.