Bozeman News

Wheeler Center Conference

Experts Say Climate Change Will Change Montana Agriculture

By Susan Duncan, 5-30-08

In Montana, agriculture is a 1.6 billion dollar business, comprising 64% of the state’s land area. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on water supplies and the productive capacity of agricultural lands.

Speakers at the Wheeler Center Conference on “Climate Change in Montana: Impacts and Opportunities for Agriculture and Energy” at MSU in early May discussed the demands for water, food, and fuel on agricultural landscapes.

Will Roehm, President of the Montana Graingrowers Association, grows dryland wheat and barley on 5,000 acres near Great Falls. Due to decreasing rainfall, he has cut back on barley production and put more land in summer fallow. Timely rains, he points out, are more critical, than the overall amount.

“The risks of farming are growing,” he says. Drought has reduced crop yields in recent years and considering crop insurance is based on crop yield history, “farmers may find it hard to insure their current crop,” he said.

Market prices are fluctuating wildly from $20 to $8 a bushel. Four dollars a bushel was considered good a few years ago. Fertilizer (from natural gas) is up 300%. Long haul truckers that transport grain are paying $4 a gallon for diesel, the fuel farmers use also use in tractors for fieldwork. Energy policies promoting ethanol production (from corn) may cause competition for corn in both the food and fuel markets. Roehm thinks that effect will be temporary, as corn based ethanol transitions to ethanol from cellulosic sources (farm residues and wood chips).

All this means new crops may become more and more important. Northeast Montana is seeing a shift from grains to chickpeas, lentils, and peas. Several speakers affirmed that challenges of temperature, pests, and diseases can be met though genetically enhanced seed.

Steve Roth, President of the Montana Stockgrower’s Association ranches southeast of Big Sandy, Montana, where recipitation amounts vary widely. Over the years, he has invested in wells, spring developments, and pipelines to augment stockwater sources. Roth expects climate change to reduce forage production. He asserts, “To preserve the health of rangelands, cattle numbers will drop to meet reduced grazing capacity. Cattlemen will need smaller, more feed efficient livestock.” He predicts that urban preferences will dominate decisions about rangelands and water resources. 

Agriculture relies heavily on fossil fuels for fieldwork, fertilizer, irrigation, and long distance transport of agricultural products. Holly Hill from the National Center of Appropriate Technology (NCAT) in Butte says that agriculture contributes 27% of the greenhouse gases (GHG) in Montana – 35% of that from energy use and 30% from fertilizer production. NCAT is actively engaged in working with farmers and irrigators on biofuels projects, energy audits, and seminars. (See a list of upcoming tours at the end of this article.)

The destabilizing effects of rising energy prices are enough reason to explore alternative fuels.  But, the switch to more environmentally friendly fuels is complicated. Tough choices lie ahead

Whitney MacMillan, Chairman Emeritus of Cargill, Inc. is concerned about the diversion of food crops into fuel, and the rising costs of food, especially for the poor. He blames the 2005 Energy Bill that mandated 10% ethanol from corn. “That mandate,” he says, “required 20% or the U.S. corn crop be used to supply 5% of our gasoline needs.” The 2007 Energy Bill mandated 36 billion gallons of fuel from biofuels by 2020.”Though it capped ethanol production from corn at 15 billion gallons,” he noted, “ that’s 40% of the corn crop to supply 12% of our gasoline needs. The remaining 21 billion gallons is supposed to come from wheat, algae, wood chips, and corn stover (cobs) through technologies that are not developed yet.”

These mandates reinforce the point John Antle (an agricultural economist at MSU) made about the unintended side effects when governments subsidize specific technologies. Subsidies direct innovation to the “approved” technologies and away from creative “outside the box” solutions that may be more effective in the long run.

MacMillan thinks ethanol is still profitable but has problems. Ethanol provides lower gas milage in vehicles and is not well suited to small engines like outboards and snowmobiles. Clark Johnson, USDA State Director, Bozeman, said he is required to purchase flex fuel vehicles for the USDA motor pool. Though they can run on ethanol blends, ethanol is not available most places in Montana and if available, is not the lowest cost fuel, required by agency regulations.

MacMillan believes biodiesel has no future. It is unprofitable. It gels in cold weather. The quality can change in transit. He worries about how much energy it takes to make it verses its energy output. Neither ethanol nor biodiesel can be transported in pipelines, he points out. They have to go by truck, with additional emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). He sees no particular benefit to Montana from these two sources in the near future.

But MacMillan admitted that he had never heard of camelina – a biofuel crop of interest in Montana. Nikola Davidson of NorthWest Biofuels, a Seattle non-profit, countered MacMillan’s arguments with reasons to support ethanol (alcohol from starch) and biofuels (from vegetable oils and animal fats).” Through these fuels,” she says, “Montana can achieve localized energy independence that supports agriculture and rural economies. The fuel improves engine performance, protects air quality while preserving a healthful environment, and is technologically available today.”

She does not see a conflict between food and fuel production. Corn based ethanol produces 25% distiller’s grains for animal feed per acre. Soybeans provide 80% meal for livestock feed and 20% oil for biodiesel and other by-products. Canola and camelina produce feed supplements as well as oil. Worried about increasing food prices? What about the loss of 2 acres of agricultural land per minute to urban development? What about the 300 million people (equivalent to the total U.S. population) who move into the middle class in India and China each year? “In spite of 3% cost increases,” she claims,
“Kroger and Safeway have boosted profits by 10-18%.”

For Montana, Davidson sees great benefits from alternative fuels in the near future. She points to small-scale biofuel refineries as models that work. Four were in operation in 2003, verses 22 today. The refineries own the raw material, so they are vertically integrated. Camelina seed is less expensive. It can be grown on marginal land with low inputs and in rotations with other crops. It is adapted to Montana’s short growing season. Products include livestock feed and oil high in omega 3’s. Biofuels can also be made from recycled fry oil from restaurants.

Davidson also believes that Montana can participate in the ethanol boom. Distressed wheat that is low in protein, but high in sugars, can be used to produce up to 20-50 million gallons of ethanol a year. Montana has wheat straw and forest thinnings as a raw material for cellulosic ethanol. Municipal wastes can be converted to ethanol and methane fuels. Opper (from DEQ) added that Salt Lake City is harvesting methane from its landfill. Davidson added that Utah is growing biodiesel crops to fuel its DOT fleet on the medians of freeways.

Bob Quinn, an organic grain farmer and research scientist from Big Sandy, Montana, has experimented with camelina on his farm. A yield of 1200 pounds per acre creates 400 pounds of oil. He estimates he could provide for his farm’s diesel needs by growing camelina on 7% of his land area. Quinn considers biodiesel a local fuel - locally produced for on-farm or local consumption. With biodiesel, the cost of farm inputs decrease: Net profits increase. Quinn observes that by reducing GHG and preventing air pollution from fossil fuels, biodiesel is very compatible with the objectives of organic farming.

“Organic farming practices can offer a 50% reduction in GHG,” Quinn says. Soil building nutrients are grown on site (no commercial fertilizers). Food is grown and eaten locally, reducing transportation. “Organic farmers don’t grow commodities,” Quinn says. “We grow food as medicine for health. High omega 3 flax and hulless waxy barley show promise as new health promoting crops.” His research associate Jacob Cowgill is experimenting with growing potatoes, squash, corn, onions, and other vegetables without irrigation. Quinn would like to see a no-till organic cropping system

Changing conditions are a fact of life for farmers and ranchers. They seek ways to adapt to weather and markets, using new tools, seeds and cropping systems, cattle feeding and grazing systems, and now, alternative fuels.

Upcoming Farm Tours (ask for directions when you register):

Bob Quinn Farm, Southeast of Big Sandy, Friday, June 20, 2008, 10:00 AM
• Morning session: camelina production and processing
• Afternoon session: dryland cropping systems for small grains, oilseeds, and legumes; dryland vegetables and heritage turkeys.
Pre-registration required: $15 fee covers tour costs and catered lunch. Contact Jim Barngrover at (406) 443-7272 at AERO () . More on the Quinn Farm and other farm and energy tours at aeromt.org

Leonard Stone Farm, Near Geraldine, Thursday, June 26, 2008, 10:30 AM
• Four years of experience growing camelina and wheat in rotation.
• Updates on oilseed crushers, biodiesel processors, and the status of using camelina for food and feed in the U.S.
Pre-register: Call Sandy Courtnage at Montana Farmer’s Union, (406) 452-6406. Free lunch. No fee.

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