Bozeman News

Obsession or Hobby

Predicting the Weather: Will it Snow?

By Alison Grey, 11-17-07

Lulu Pass Weather Station. Photo courtesy of Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

It’s Weather Channel season. Whether we love the station or love to hate it, it’s that time of year again where we await the ski season with impatient anticipation. The channel is set on permanent and we check weather Web sites religiously, searching for the next low front to move through the Rockies and bring those vital storms.

We analyze past years, look deeply into patterns throughout the country and attempt to predict the powder in our neck of the woods. And of course, we want forecasters to predict the powder that we want. Don’t tell us it’s going to be a warm season with little hope of powder days. Argh.

When it storms, we love the Weather Channel. When the snow doesn’t come, we hate it. Yet, we can’t turn it off.

“It’s interesting to me how folks complain about the weather forecast, but they still check it every single day,” said Ron Johnson of the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. “If you bought an album you didn’t like, you’d listen to it a couple times, but you’d get rid of it. With weather, people will listen to it every day and hate it.”

There’s a lot of talk, effort and thought that goes into powder and trying to predict whether it’s coming or not. Most of us ski addicts, sleep, dream and live for that white fluffy goodness. So much so, that it completely alters our life plans, whether that be professional or personal. We’ll forfeit anything for powder.

With such sacrifices being made by ski bums across the Rocky Mountain West, there’s a lot riding on the snow, so it makes sense that weather becomes a major facet of our existence.

While we can control most of aspects of our daily lives, Mother Nature aint one of them. So, our next best option is to make the Weather Channel a constant fixture on our televisions and try to predict the powder.

After an unpredictable, and less than stellar, season last year, will this year be the big one we’ve all been waiting for? We all want to know: Will it snow??!!

While there is a lot of talk and effort that goes into predicating the weather, Johnson believes that long-term forecasts are about as accurate as flipping a coin.

For example, look at the wacky weather situation we encountered last year. As early as October, we were skiing powder, but by December all of that snow was gone, then it puked again in February. No one could have predicted such a bizarre bi-polar season, said Johnson.

This year, the pre-season couldn’t be more different, with tropical temps descending upon Montana and pushing our ski season further and further back. In the Bridger Range, there is only a 4 to 8-inch base, two to three storms short of skiing, said Johnson.

Is this normal for November when looking at long-term weather patterns? What does this mean for our ski season this year?

Apparently, this year is not so odd in the grand scheme of things. Johnson said it’s not so unusual to have warm fall temperatures. Apparently, there have been much worse, drier and warmer, Novembers than this in the past! What? Really??!! Apparently, it is so.

While the weather has been a little wacky the last few years, with winters that are starting later and springs that are a little warmer, Johnson can’t say if this is the results of global warming or simply a few off years. 

Still, the fact that this November is not the worst one in the course of this region’s history, gives us powder people some hope that our ski season is not all lost. 

And, Johnson says that this year, according to the overall jet stream and weather patterns, Montana is open for snow storm opportunities and low pressure systems that were not here last year.

There are possible storms, that could happen, and these predictions are better than last year. Still, weather is a fussy thing, and that could all change in the long road, so don’t count on it, he said.

With all these highs and lows, ups, downs and maybes, weather prediction becomes a psychological battle, a love story of sorts, said Johnson.

People will look deeply into the weather forecast and see what they want to see, not necessarily what is the truth. If they want it to snow, they will look for powder predictions and elevate a storm’s probability, whereas, when it comes to warmer drier conditions, they will be less likely to accept these predictions as a reality.

“When folks don’t like what’s happening now, they will look for any glimmer of hope in the long range,” he said. “Our judgment and perceptions are altered by the past trends and what we’re looking for as opposed to what will actually happen or what we want.”

Apparently, simply leaving it up to Mother Nature and fate is not enough. We latch onto computer models, analyze previous years and look deeply into the data that tracks high and low fronts as a means to find some means of control over the weather.

Still, even with all the fancy technology, beyond a couple days, you just won’t know for sure, said Johnson.

Maybe it will snow, and maybe it won’t. Get used to it. That’s the weather.

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