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PLUS, MY SCORE FROM LAST YEAR'S PREDICTIONS

Predictions: The Biggest Outdoor Stories of 2009

By Bill Schneider, 12-31-08

Is this a wild prediction? Wild Bill will do more fishing in 2009? Photo by Ron Solberg.

It’s that time of year again, when many of my peers in the writing biz reflect on what already happened and list the best and biggest stories of the year, but as I asked last year, how hard is it to look into the past and be a visionary? 

Being a forward-looking guy, I prefer to predict what will happen instead of reflect on what happened. It’s certainly more challenging and risky, as you can see from the following footnotes on what happened with my 2008 predictions.

Perhaps I’ll do better this year. Here are my predictions for the top outdoor stories you can expect in 2009.

Blues for the Greens. I predict the biggest story of 2009 will be how much President-elect Barrack Obama and the Blue Congress do for environmentalists who so strongly supported the Dems. Greens have already submitted wish lists to the transition team, and unrealistic expectation has already replaced rampant skepticism.

But I expect a big disappointment. All the same reasons environmental legislation is so controversial still stare us in the face, and many Dems, particularly out here in the New West and chief among them Obama’s picks for Agriculture and Interior, are quite centrist on environmental issues. The Dems can’t justify prioritizing pro-planet bills when faced with issues like the ongoing economic meltdown and health care crisis. So, greens, don’t set goals too high.

The Big Dog Show. The Wolf Chronicles will continue as a big story, but not the biggest this year. Proponents of delisting missed their chance to get it done under the Bush administration, mainly because of Wyoming’s inability to join the real world like Idaho and Montana have.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) will continue trying to delist the wolf this year, but with a greener tint than last year’s plan, and “control” hundreds of wolves along the way. Nonetheless, I predict that because of the inability of wildlife agency chiefs to shelf egos long enough to negotiate a truce with green groups, the Big Dog will still be an endangered species twelve months from today.

The FWS might propose delisting in Idaho and Montana only, keeping Wyoming wolves on the endangered species list (and making sure the Big Dog repopulates Colorado), but I doubt such a plan will fly because it seems like all politics and no science--and I doubt greens would accept partial delisting.

The Best Gun Salesman Ever. I predict gun control will be the littlest outdoor story of the year, and no news will be good news for gun owners. Regardless of unchecked paranoia that President-elect Obama and the Blue Congress will pass new laws banning certain guns and ammo, I bet nothing will happen nationally. Major eastern municipalities might try for stronger local laws, but nothing will affect gun owners in the New West.

Meanwhile, even though Pres-elect Obama has clearly proven himself to be the best gun salesman ever, I predict that not one single gun dealer will put up a statue of him in front of his or her store.

The Endless Wilderness Drought. Attempts to protect roadless lands will continue making news, but despite the efforts of some wilderness advocates, the continuing feud among green groups and embarrassing disinterest within the Montana delegation will keep the Wilderness Drought going--and not just in Montana, but Idaho and Wyoming, too.

The Cabela’s Controversy. Last year, I had the opposite opinion, but now I predict Cabela’s will continue in denial and refuse to make any substantive changes in its land marketing business. If the Billings store opens, it will suffer poor sales because of the controversy, but Cabela’s will never admit it.

I’ll report back at the end of the year on what actually happened. Now, for last year’s predictions:

• The FWS will try to delist the wolf, the delisting won’t survive court challenges in 2008. Score one for Wild Bill, but a lay-up.

• The Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act won’t pass. It didn’t, nor will it ever; one more for me; another lay-up

• The Montana congressional delegation will introduce a Wilderness bill based on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge compromise. Wrong. The draft BDP bill was too controversial as written to introduce and doesn’t even have support of most wilderness advocates.

• Cabela’s will make enough of the right moves in its trophy property business to convince critics to stop torturing the retail giant. Wrong.

• The Baucus-Crapo bill, the Fee Repeal and Expanded Access Act, will pass. Wrong, but 2009 could be the year.

• Congress will finally face the tragic reality of the Mining Law of 1872. Wrong again, but again, 2009 could be the year.
  
• Gas will hit $4 per gallon, but still no major change in our lifestyles. Right and wrong. Gas topped $4, and believe it or not, we drove fewer miles and stopped buying gas guzzlers. Will it last now that they (whoever “they” are) have brought gas down to less than $20 per fill up?

• The Yellowstone grizzly delisting proposal will still be in court. Right, and will I live long enough to see this change?

• Even more hunters (five in 2007) will be mauled by grizzly bears and more grizzly bears will die in confrontations with hunters. Wrong, bearly. In 2008, grizzlies mauled three hunters, one fatally, but these numbers still say: Hunters, carry bear pepper spray for your protection--and for the bear’s welfare. Out of 39 known grizzly bear deaths in 2008, 17 were hunting incidents.

• The National Rifle Association will continue supporting politicians who don’t represent the best interests of hunters and its rival, the American Hunters and Shooters Association, will continue to gain ground on the NRA. Right on.

• Repeat from last year. Wyoming will continue to ignore pressure from other states and sport groups to close elk feedgrounds or do anything to defuse the Chronic Wasting Disease Time Bomb.  Another win for Wild Bill, unfortunately. I could shoot this lay-up every year, but decided not to waste any more space on it.

• Another repeat. Market forces such as high energy and construction costs and soaring land prices will further slow urban sprawl. Right on, but will it last?

• The biggest outdoor story of them all, the Three Trillion Dollar War, won’t even be considered an outdoor story. Regrettably a big win for Wild Bill, but a big loss for the rest of the world.

Check back next New Year’s Eve for the results.

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