Boise News

The Idaho Group Blog

With slow but steady improvement in the economy’s vital signs, two questions are gnawing at analysts’ brain pans.  First, is this a sustainable recovery with the power to fuel substantial job growth?  Second, what will happen when the “double bubble” ruptures and some $1.7 trillion in commercial real estate notes come due over the next few years?

Most economic prognosticators portend a sluggish recovery with continued job losses throughout 2010.  New job growth will be slow, they say.  Too many businesses are changing fast or forever gone, like GM’s Saturn Division.  We can’t expect the same jobs to reappear and be filled by the same folks who were laid off.  Plus, globalization and the Internet have changed the game.  Look for new jobs to develop in health care, education, government and within new or fast-changing industries.

As for the double bubble effect, commercial real estate values are down about 35 percent since the peak in 2007, according to Moody’s.  Unlike residential mortgages, commercial loans are much shorter term—usually five to 10 years.  The first $300 billion in commercial-backed securities will come due in 2010.  Obviously, many businesses are on their knees due to the slowdown.  So there is a shortage of cash to payoff real estate loans, especially where property values have fallen far below contract values, which would cause buyers to bring even more cash to the closing table to accomplish a refinancing.  Meantime, lenders have locked down their underwriting guidelines and all but stopped making commercial loans, despite claims that they are open for business.

Opinion: Elections

Refusing to vote, declining to vote, or not being informed enough to vote is a serious wrong.

Ever since our high school civics teachers pounded our heads about the right to vote, we all should know this. But apparently we don’t.

The turnout in today’s election is estimated at 20 to 30 percent. We’ll see how it turns out – Boise in particular has a hot city council race centered around support of a downtown trolley system – but based on history, that’s probably right.

“If you don’t vote, you can’t complain” is a fundamental concept of democracy and fairness. If you don’t help to plant the seed, pull the weeds, harvest the wheat and bake the bread, no soup for you.

The response that there is nobody you want to vote for is acceptable only if you plan to keep your mouth shut about any civic issue that could have been addressed by electing someone else. And if there was nobody else who came close to your views, you can always run for office yourself.

When you fail to participate in a democracy, you are turning your vote over to people who don’t have your values and issues in mind – they have their own.

internet technology

In addition to funding broadband projects in the states, particularly in rural areas, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, also known as the stimulus package, includes funds for collection of state-level broadband data, as well as state-wide broadband mapping and planning.

The Idaho Group Blog

The radio news squawk lately has been about Global Warming, the latest in an endless supply of silly partisan battles.  As I hear one team arguing that a new Senate bill will create jobs and save the planet, I hear the other team telling us that same Senate bill will increase our taxes and crush the economy. Since we all side with the home team, it’s no wonder polls asking us – Global Warming, True or False? – are becoming red and blue in color.  And just like NFL football, I’m tired of the commercials…let’s get to the game!

We’re arguing a pointless debate.

Both sides are wrong because the very premise of the debate is flawed.

It’s not about “if” global warming is real or “who” is to blame.  How can anyone “know” that our planet is warming, let alone “know” humans are the cause of the warming?  To think that we understand how this living system we call earth operates is nothing but over-inflated human ego.  The fact is we don’t know what’s going to happen.  Every time we think we know what’s going on in nature, we get proven wrong.  Let’s stop the debate and get to the real problems.

This is my breakdown for all the proud-to-guzzle-gas-rednecks and all the entitled-Prius-latte-drinking-hippies….we’re going to have too many people on the planet soon and too few resources to keep our current economic system moving.

Commentary

A massive job awaits Jonathan Jarvis, the man who became chief of national parks this month, according to a fine feature story by Todd Wilkinson (which was published today in the Flathead Beacon).

The new park service director, a 32-year veteran of the National Park Service, kicked off his new job by visiting the home of conservationist John Muir and taking his family to Yosemite National Park, Wilkinson writes. If Jarvis got some extra energy from the trips, that’s good, the story notes. Because he’ll need it.

Bob Wire Has a Point (It's Under His Cowboy Hat)

“You got to caaaaarve that punkin, you gotta caaaaaarve that punkin…” I’m belting out these words to the tune of Southern Culture on the Skids’ “Carve That Possum” when the kids get off the school bus. Their friends, doing their best Kilroy-Was-Here impression, watch me from the bus windows as it pulls away.

“Dad, you’re embarrassing me,” says Speaker, stamping a foot. At 11 years of age, she is highly susceptible to mortification. Rusty remains stoic.

“Sorry, kiddo. I’m just full of…Halloween cheer!” I whip a ten-inch chef’s knife out of my coat. “Do you know what night this is?”

Rusty gives me his best baleful stare. “Goat sacrifice?”

“No, but close. It’s pumpkin carving night! I’ve already picked out some pumpkins for you guys.”

PRATICAL TIPS FOR MAKING A GOOD CHOICE

So, you’ve finally decided to take that fishing trip of a lifetime--to Alaska, Canada, Patagonia, the Caribbean or another exotic location. Now, be sure you choose the right lodge.

The cost is always key, of course, but hardly the only concern. Regardless of your passion--bonefish, tarpon, muskie, salmon, monster rainbows or pike, whatever--you don’t want your long-awaited (and deserved, right?) vacation to turn into a stressful and costly disappointment.

If you’re a do-it-yourself type of guy, this column isn’t for you, but if you decide to stay at a fishing lodge and have a guided adventure, finding the right outfitter and avoiding problems along the way can be challenging. I’m hardly an expert, but I’ve stayed at a dozen or more lodges through the years.  Along the way, I’ve picked up a few tips that might be helpful.

From the Panhandle with Cate Huisman

The fourth annual Lakedance Film Festival moves a little later into the fall this year, enabling it to kick off on Halloween night with four horror films: In addition to the classics “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre” and “Night of the Living Dead,” two short films entered in the festival will be included, including “FM,” a locally produced film involving blood-curdling screams interrupting music being played on the radio.

Father-and-son team Fred and Trevor Greenfield started this festival in 2006, with the hope of encouraging a nascent film-making industry in Idaho. In 2008, with the support of local banks, it started a grant program to support filmmakers in north Idaho. From just three north Idaho films in 2006, the festival had grown to include 13 north Idaho films by 2008.

Environment

An initial hearing Tuesday on revamped cap-and-trade legislation from Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry, D-MA, and Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-CA) gave moderates a public mouthpiece that might spur concessions from party leaders down the road.

At the hearing in Boxer’s panel Tuesday, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus, D-MT, cited “serious reservations” about the bill’s requirement for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

Boxer replied: “The goal is very, very doable.” Kerry agreed but said the target could change. “We’ll see what happens on the floor on that,” Kerry said. “I’m open to talking with Max; we’ll see where we end up.”

Boxer said she wants her climate bill to continue to preserve EPA’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases despite complaints Tuesday from Baucus and Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa. “We have to keep the EPA in the game,” Boxer said. But, she added, “There are ways to make it more certain for people.” Specter challenged EPA Administrator Jackson at the hearing and Democratic leaders afterward to provide regulatory certainty.

“There’s a great deal to be gained by certainty so people can make plans,” Specter told Jackson. He also emphasized it is the job of Congress to lay out that roadmap for industries. “That’s really our job,” he said.

FOLLOWING MY SHOTS

UPDATED 10/27/09. See end of column.

Anybody who reads NewWest.Net regularly might be getting a little weary of reading about Senator Jon Tester’s “Jobs and Recreation Act,” S. 1470. So far, by last count, we’ve posted twenty-two articles and columns on the bill and its impact. This includes our own coverage and several guest columns, as we’ve tried to give each major stakeholder a forum to voice their point of view, including one from the senator himself. (Click here to read them all.)

But this bill keeps on giving out stories, it seems, such as these updates and follow-ups to earlier postings.