Spring Snowpack Projected to Drop by 50% at Colorado Ski Areas by 2085

By Bryan Hurlbutt, 4-19-06

Snowpack on April 1 is estimated to decline substantially at all major ski resorts in the Rockies according to a study recently released in the 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card. Projected snowpack losses range from 26% in Teton County, Wyoming (home to Jackson Hole), to 89% in Taos County, New Mexico, which could have devastating affects on the ski industry and communities in the region, not to mention regional water supplies. In Colorado, Routt, Grand, Eagle, Summit, Pitkin, and Gunnison counties are all projected to see losses of around 50%, and San Miguel County (home to Telluride) would see a loss of 82%.

The State of the Rockies Project hired ATMOS Research and Consulting to downscale the HadCM3 global climate model for the 8-state Rocky Mountain West, outputting temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in 1976 and 2085 in 12 kilometer grids across the region. State of the Rockies analyzed the data to assess climate’s future impact on the region’s water resources, tourism, and ecosystems. Although these specific findings are not necessarily what will happen (since modeling climate is a tricky endeavor), this is a very realistic scenario, using a highly regarded, middle of the road climate model. The report suggests that mitigating fossil fuel use is important to minimizing human-induced climate change, but climate change is already underway. Therefore, it’s time to start seriously considering the implications of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies. Click here for the Climate Change section of the report (PDF). Share your thoughts!

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