NewWest.Net/Politics

A Western Primer on the Western Primary

By Greg Lemon, 6-08-07

Mitt Romney is coming to Montana in late June, but he may be the only presidential candidate to campaign in Big Sky country this year.

Though many of the Rocky Mountain states have pushed up their primary and caucus dates in the hopes of having more influence on the races, many other states have pushed forward as well. A front-loaded primary schedule, and the failure of the states to come together around a long-standing effort to create a regional primary, has put the smaller states in the Rocky Mountain West back where they started: too small to matter much in the nomination process.

At the same time, though, the region is likely to play an important role in the general election as one of the few parts of the country that isn’t clearly red or blue – and that could help bring some candidate attention even during the primary season. With the Democratic National Convention happening in Denver next August – and the Republican Convention taking place not too far away, in Minneapolis – the region doubtless has a higher profile this election cycle than in the past.

Frustrated by a primary season dynamic in which the candidates who do well in a few early contests are able to lock things up before most voters even go the polls, states have been inching their primaries and caucuses forward for the past few election cycles. This year, the floodgates broke: South Carolina and Nevada moved their events into January - a month that traditionally has been devoted to New Hampshire and Iowa - and heavy hitters Florida (late January), and New York and California (early February) have jumped to the front of the line as well.

In theory, candidates are nominated by the delegates at the national conventions. Nationally the Democrats have 4,361 delegates, and the Republicans have 2,517. States have various methods of choosing delegates – primary elections, or local meetings known as caucuses, with various kinds of rules. Here’s the run-down on the delegate selection process in the Rocky Mountain West.

• Arizona primaries (both parties), February 5. Delegates: 67 Democratic and 53 Republican.

• Colorado caucuses, spread out over several months, starting with precinct caucuses, then county assemblies, followed district and state conventions. Democratic precinct caucuses are held Feb. 5. The Democratic state convention is planned for May 17.  On the Republican side, the precinct caucuses will be held February 8, the state convention is scheduled for June 7. Delegates: 71 Democratic and 46 Republican.

• Idaho. Democrats will hold district caucuses on Feb. 5, though delegate preferences may not be known until the Democratic state convention on May 27.  Republicans will hold their primary May 27. Most of the delegate preferences should be known after the primary, but official determinations will be made at the state convention on June 12. Delegates: 23 Democratic and 32 Republican.

• Montana primaries (both parties), June 3. Delegates: 23 Democratic and 25 Republican delegates.

• New Mexico. Democratic primary Feb. 5, Republican primary June 3. Delegates: 38 Democratic and 32 Republican.

• Nevada caucuses, Jan. 19. The final allocation of Democratic delegates will be at their state convention, April 19. Final allocation for Republicans will be at their state convention, May 1–3. Delegates: 33 Democratic and 34 Republican.

• Wyoming. Democratic county caucuses March 8, state convention in May 24. The Republicans will chose about half of their delegates at the county conventions on January 22. The remaining will be chosen at the state convention, May 8–10. Delegates: 18 Democratic and 28 Republican.

• Utah primaries (both parties), Feb. 5. Delegates: 29 Democratic and 36 Republican.

(Check out the www.thegreenpapers.com for more nuts and bolts on the presidential primaries and caucuses.)

The schedule is certainly a disappointment to Western political leaders who had hoped that a regional primary early in the schedule would force presidential candidates to pay attention to the issues and the people of the Rocky Mountain West.

In a recent essay in Montana Agenda, a University of Montana publication, Daniel Kemmis and Bob Brown, both fellows at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West in Missoula, discussed the concept and its history. The idea was first championed in the late 1990s by then Utah Gov. Michael Leavitt, but it didn’t really gel. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, now a candidate who clearly would have benefited from the regional primary, resurrected the idea in 2003.

The idea was to get the regional primary in place by the 2008 elections, with all the Rocky Mountain States scheduling their primaries and caucuses early and on the same day. The concept required broad bi-partisan and state cooperation, however, and that didn’t happen for the 2008 election.

A handful of Rocky Mountain States did move up their primaries, but their moves were effectively nullified by so many other states moving up.  Some states, like Montana failed to move their primaries up at all.

In terms of influence on the outcome, Nevada may be in the best position: the state caucuses are after Iowa’s but before the New Hampshire primary, and Richardson in particular is hoping that a strong showing in Nevada could give him some momentum.

But with New York and California both voting on Feb. 5, the conventional wisdom is that the races will be effectively over after that. said

“The minute you see the mega states move up I think the chances are fairly good that by the first week of February you’ll know who the nominee’s going to be,” said Jim Duffy, a partner in the Washington D.C. based Democratic media firm, Storther, Duffy and Strother. “It just becomes a different campaign.”

Of course, it’s possible that if the race is extremely close and candidates are still competing after February 5, they’ll be chasing every delegate then can get. For voters in the Rocky Mountain West who want to have a voice, that’s probably their only hope.

The front-loaded primary schedule will also increase the importance of raising large amounts of money as early as possible, since a TV blitz is the only real way to be competitive in the big states. Candidates may not come West looking for votes, but they may well show up looking for money. That in some ways is the real primary race.

Like this story? Get more! Sign up for our free newsletters.