Boise News

Prognostications on the Idaho vote

Even in Idaho, It’s About Iraq

By Contributing Writer, Unfiltered 11-06-06

Guest opinion by Jane L. Freund

I chuckle when people ask me what I think is going to happen on this Election Day. I have been involved in politics for over 40 years and have long stopped being the typical voter. Yet some folks may call me an “expert,” which is flattering, but it is a relative term. I believe that pollsters are only as good as their last survey, campaign managers as their last campaign, and political prognosticators as their last prediction.

Rather than rely on my “expertise,” I decided to talk with (or more appropriately listen to) voters whom I did not know. Because I will be out of town on Election Day, I decided to vote absentee and find out what’s on the minds of the voters. After all, they’re the real experts.

The line to vote absentee extended out the door Monday with poll workers saying the whole process would take about 45 minutes. I struck up a conversation with the folks by me in line and was surprised at what I heard. I expected to hear concerns about a variety of different issues; instead one subject was right at the center of their reasons for voting: Iraq. Given the significant number of Idahoans who are in Iraq and the fact yet another Gem State soldier died there today, the visibility of the Iraqi issue is not surprising. What took me aback was that all other issues were secondary to the voters I met.

The concerns I heard were for the young people. One voter, Cecilia, has four brothers who have been in four different wars beginning with World War II. One brother died in Vietnam. One grandson is in the military and another will celebrate his 18th birthday on Thursday by registering for Selective Service. Another person with whom I chatted, Herman, said he didn’t usually vote in midterm elections but is concerned about the possibility that his nephews and nieces and their children might have to fight in Iraq.

So I roll in those and other conversations with the knowledge that high turnout in non-presidential elections usually (but not always) means dissatisfaction with the status quo. Then again, at times in our history, the word “Idaho” could be defined as “political anomaly.” Remember that Gem State voters sent Frank Church and George Hansen to Washington DC in the same Congressional delegation. In 1988, while George Bush was trouncing Michael Dukakis for President, Idaho Democrats pulled off some major upsets as the Idaho House Majority Leader , Idaho Senate President Pro Tem and another prominent Idaho State Senator all went down to defeat.

Now having laid the groundwork, let me say that my “expertise” about this election is best summarized with the following equation:

High turnout + voter dissatisfaction + political anomaly + Red State = Democratic gains but not sweeps in Idaho. Here’s what I think will happen in this Election:

By the time the polls close in Idaho, Democrats will have already claimed the U.S. House.

Control of the U.S. Senate will come down to the hotly contested Tester/Burns race going on next door in Montana. Tester will win.

Idaho Democrats will take at least one of the three “big” prizes (two Congressional seats and the governor’s spot). The national press will use the Democratic victories in Idaho as an example of the extent of Republican losses. (“Even in the red state of Idaho, Democrats won.”)

In the down-ticket statewide races (lieutenant governor, treasurer, controller, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction), Republicans will win four of those seats, with the Democrats claiming the other two spots.

Democrats will pick up at least two legislative seats in Ada County and two more in other parts of Idaho. Democrats will also win a handful of new county level seats across Idaho.

So goes my take on what will be a memorable political year both in Idaho and nationally. We’ll see what kind of political prognosticator I turn out to be!

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