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Election Analysis

Rural Montana Voters Carried Jon Tester’s Victory


By Courtney Lowery, 11-16-06

Tester speaks to his supporters on election night in Great Falls. Photo by Mark Maher.

The obvious explanation for Democrat Jon Tester's win over Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in the Montana's U.S. Senate race lies in Tester's overwhelming success in the state's most urban counties -- especially the ones where he had a strong coterie of young volunteers and won big, notably Missoula. But digging a little deeper, numbers show Tester's win came largely from gains he made in the more rural counties -- and more specifically -- in the counties he actually lost.

In rallies leading up to the election, Gov. Brian Schweitzer often referred to his loss to Burns in 2000, likening the race to a bull he was able to ride for just seven and a half seconds. (In bull riding, you have to stay on for eight seconds.) "I know a guy who can stay on that dang bull from Missouri for nine and a half seconds … and that's Jon Tester," he said at one rally days before the election.

So what exactly enabled Tester to succeed where Schweitzer - who, remember, won the governorship in an election in which Bush swept the state - had failed? We compared the county-by-county results for this year's contest and the Schweitzer/ Burns campaign of 2000 - and the numbers show those proverbial two seconds on the bull came from one farmer's appeal to voters in some of Montana's most sparsely-populated -- and traditionally Republican -- counties.

Of Burns' 41 counties won this year, 37 were in rural Montana, which we'll define here as counties where less than 10,000 votes were cast. Of Tester's 15 wins, 10 are in the rural category.

In these 47 rural Montana counties, Tester grabbed 9,872 votes more than Schweitzer did against Burns in 2000. In the 37 counties alone where Tester lost, he gained 6,590 votes.

Now, compare those numbers with what Tester gained in the more populous counties of Cascade, Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Lake, Ravalli, Missoula, Silver Bow and Yellowstone. In these counties together, Tester gained 7,650 votes more than Schweitzer in 2000.

Burns won 41 counties to Tester's 15. Of Tester's 15, five were key wins in the nine urban counties where more than 10,000 ballots were cast. Comparatively, six years ago, Burns took 44 counties to Schweitzer's 12.

But the deciding factor is not about which counties were won or lost, it's about by how much they were won or lost.

The Rural Vote, Broken Down

Keep in mind -- with all these numbers -- that in almost all counties, turnout was higher in 2000, likely because it was a presidential election year. Statewide, 417,916 ballots were cast in 2000. This year, 404,302 were cast. (Also a quick caveat here: All these numbers -- gains and losses -- reflect the change in the margin between Burns and Tester this year over the margin between Burns and Schweitzer in 2000.)

Of the 404,302 ballots cast this year, voters in rural counties cast roughly 130,700. Even though that's less than one-third of the entire statewide number, collectively, these counties created one big swing vote.

Of the 10 rural counties Tester won, he took four from Burns: Hill, Mineral, Park and Sheridan. The other six were already fairly Democratic, going to Schweitzer in 2000 as well: Big Horn, Blaine, Deer Lodge, Glacier, Roosevelt and Rosebud.

The biggest swing in these 10 came in Hill County, where Havre is the largest town. Tester's farm is in the northern part of Chouteau County, near the Hill County border. In Hill, Tester made a gain of 1,166 votes and his second highest gain in percentage margin with 19.2 points better than 2000.

He also made up 17 percentage points in Sheridan County (which Burns also took in 2000) and won Mineral County by 16 percentage points more than Schweitzer did.

In Deer Lodge County (town of Anaconda), Tester won by a large margin (2,115 votes and 48 percentage points) but Burns actually gained 28 votes there over the 2000 race.

Tester also lost ground in Blaine, and Glacier County, slipping about 80 votes in each place compared to Schweitzer in 2000.

Of the counties Tester lost, and actually overall, he made the biggest jump in his home county of Chouteau. It made headlines last week when the final results showed Tester losing at home by 57 votes, but looking the margin in 2000, this year's loss doesn't seem so drastic. In fact, it seems to favor Tester.

Tester lost by 57 votes and 2.1 percentage points in Chouteau County this year, but in 2000, Schweitzer lost by 842 votes and 29 percentage points. Net gain, Tester pulled 785 more votes and 26.9 more percentage points than the last Democrat who gave it a try.

In Chouteau County in 2000, 2,925 ballots were cast. This year, 2,679 residents voted.

Tester also made meaningful gains in McCone County, where he pulled 15 more percentage points than Schweitzer did in 2000 and in Petroleum and Sweet Grass Counties, where he made up about 17 points in both places.

Burns still did increase his margin in 12 counties total. Of those, nine gains came in counties he won, including Broadwater, Fallon, Judith Basin, Musselshell, Pondera, Toole, Treasure and Wibaux Counties. His biggest gain came in Toole County, where he added 126 votes and 8.4 percentage points over his margin of victory there in 2000. Pondera County borders Chouteau County's Western edge and Toole is just a stone's throw away from that border as well.

The Urban Vote, Broken Down

In the more populous counties, Tester won the predictables, including the Democratic strongholds of Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Cascade and Silver Bow. He did lose ground, however, in Silver Bow, where he dropped 971 votes from 2000 and .4 of a percent, and Cascade, where he lost 1,772 votes and 4 percentage points.

Lake County was the one urban county Tester picked up from Burns. In Lake County, Tester gained 299 votes and 2.6 percentage points -- enough to swing the county from supporting a Republican in 2000 to supporting a Democrat in 2006.

In the urban counties Tester lost, he made important gains in Yellowstone (Burns' home county), Flathead and Gallatin Counties. In Gallatin alone, he gained 2,085 votes from the 2000 election, which added up to a pickup of 6.5 percentage points.

The Gallatin numbers get even more interesting when you look at the U.S. House race between Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg and Democrat Monica Lindeen. Rehberg won by 6,643 votes and 19 percentage points. Burns only won in Gallatin County by 182 votes and a half of a percentage point.

In Flathead County -- traditionally a Burns county -- Tester still picked up 954 votes and 1.9 percentage points over Schweitzer in 2000. That's big considering Flathead was Schweitzer's home county.

And then there's Missoula County, where an outpouring of college students and young voters helped Tester but then again, historically, Missoula is where Democrats win big.

He did make some large gains in Missoula County, but comparatively, not more than he made in some of the more rural counties, like Chouteau or Hill Counties.

Looking back on the 2000 election, the margin in Missoula wasn't the gigantic leap it seems at first blush. In 2000, Schweitzer took Missoula County by 20 percentage points. This year, Tester beat Burns by 29 percentage points. Overall, though, Tester picked up 4,094 more votes in Missoula County than Schweitzer did (with a lower turnout because 2000 was a presidential election year) in 2000, which is nothing to sneeze at.

But, it still doesn't put a dent in the boost rural voters gave Tester -- a few votes at a time.

Postscript: This is just one way to slice results from the election and what numbers show here is likely unique to this particular comparison between this year's race and Burns' 2000 race against Schweitzer. If you know of other glances at different comparisons, by all means, share them here in comments.



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