Election Analysis
Rural Montana Voters Carried Jon Tester’s Victory
By Courtney Lowery, 11-16-06
Tester speaks to his supporters on election night in Great Falls. Photo by Mark Maher.
The obvious explanation for Democrat Jon Tester's win over Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in the Montana's U.S. Senate race lies in Tester's overwhelming success in the state's most urban counties -- especially the ones where he had a strong coterie of young volunteers and won big, notably Missoula. But digging a little deeper, numbers show Tester's win came largely from gains he made in the more rural counties -- and more specifically -- in the counties he actually lost.
In rallies leading up to the election, Gov. Brian Schweitzer often referred to his loss to Burns in 2000, likening the race to a bull he was able to ride for just seven and a half seconds. (In bull riding, you have to stay on for eight seconds.) "I know a guy who can stay on that dang bull from Missouri for nine and a half seconds … and that's Jon Tester," he said at one rally days before the election.
So what exactly enabled Tester to succeed where Schweitzer - who, remember, won the governorship in an election in which Bush swept the state - had failed? We compared the county-by-county results for this year's contest and the Schweitzer/ Burns campaign of 2000 - and the numbers show those proverbial two seconds on the bull came from one farmer's appeal to voters in some of Montana's most sparsely-populated -- and traditionally Republican -- counties.
Of Burns' 41 counties won this year, 37 were in rural Montana, which we'll define here as counties where less than 10,000 votes were cast. Of Tester's 15 wins, 10 are in the rural category.
In these 47 rural Montana counties, Tester grabbed 9,872 votes more than Schweitzer did against Burns in 2000. In the 37 counties alone where Tester lost, he gained 6,590 votes.
Now, compare those numbers with what Tester gained in the more populous counties of Cascade, Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Lake, Ravalli, Missoula, Silver Bow and Yellowstone. In these counties together, Tester gained 7,650 votes more than Schweitzer in 2000.
Burns won 41 counties to Tester's 15. Of Tester's 15, five were key wins in the nine urban counties where more than 10,000 ballots were cast. Comparatively, six years ago, Burns took 44 counties to Schweitzer's 12.
But the deciding factor is not about which counties were won or lost, it's about by how much they were won or lost.
The Rural Vote, Broken Down
Keep in mind -- with all these numbers -- that in almost all counties, turnout was higher in 2000, likely because it was a presidential election year. Statewide, 417,916 ballots were cast in 2000. This year, 404,302 were cast. (Also a quick caveat here: All these numbers -- gains and losses -- reflect the change in the margin between Burns and Tester this year over the margin between Burns and Schweitzer in 2000.)
Of the 404,302 ballots cast this year, voters in rural counties cast roughly 130,700. Even though that's less than one-third of the entire statewide number, collectively, these counties created one big swing vote.
Of the 10 rural counties Tester won, he took four from Burns: Hill, Mineral, Park and Sheridan. The other six were already fairly Democratic, going to Schweitzer in 2000 as well: Big Horn, Blaine, Deer Lodge, Glacier, Roosevelt and Rosebud.
The biggest swing in these 10 came in Hill County, where Havre is the largest town. Tester's farm is in the northern part of Chouteau County, near the Hill County border. In Hill, Tester made a gain of 1,166 votes and his second highest gain in percentage margin with 19.2 points better than 2000.
He also made up 17 percentage points in Sheridan County (which Burns also took in 2000) and won Mineral County by 16 percentage points more than Schweitzer did.
In Deer Lodge County (town of Anaconda), Tester won by a large margin (2,115 votes and 48 percentage points) but Burns actually gained 28 votes there over the 2000 race.
Tester also lost ground in Blaine, and Glacier County, slipping about 80 votes in each place compared to Schweitzer in 2000.
Of the counties Tester lost, and actually overall, he made the biggest jump in his home county of Chouteau. It made headlines last week when the final results showed Tester losing at home by 57 votes, but looking the margin in 2000, this year's loss doesn't seem so drastic. In fact, it seems to favor Tester.
Tester lost by 57 votes and 2.1 percentage points in Chouteau County this year, but in 2000, Schweitzer lost by 842 votes and 29 percentage points. Net gain, Tester pulled 785 more votes and 26.9 more percentage points than the last Democrat who gave it a try.
In Chouteau County in 2000, 2,925 ballots were cast. This year, 2,679 residents voted.
Tester also made meaningful gains in McCone County, where he pulled 15 more percentage points than Schweitzer did in 2000 and in Petroleum and Sweet Grass Counties, where he made up about 17 points in both places.
Burns still did increase his margin in 12 counties total. Of those, nine gains came in counties he won, including Broadwater, Fallon, Judith Basin, Musselshell, Pondera, Toole, Treasure and Wibaux Counties. His biggest gain came in Toole County, where he added 126 votes and 8.4 percentage points over his margin of victory there in 2000. Pondera County borders Chouteau County's Western edge and Toole is just a stone's throw away from that border as well.
The Urban Vote, Broken Down
In the more populous counties, Tester won the predictables, including the Democratic strongholds of Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Cascade and Silver Bow. He did lose ground, however, in Silver Bow, where he dropped 971 votes from 2000 and .4 of a percent, and Cascade, where he lost 1,772 votes and 4 percentage points.
Lake County was the one urban county Tester picked up from Burns. In Lake County, Tester gained 299 votes and 2.6 percentage points -- enough to swing the county from supporting a Republican in 2000 to supporting a Democrat in 2006.
In the urban counties Tester lost, he made important gains in Yellowstone (Burns' home county), Flathead and Gallatin Counties. In Gallatin alone, he gained 2,085 votes from the 2000 election, which added up to a pickup of 6.5 percentage points.
The Gallatin numbers get even more interesting when you look at the U.S. House race between Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg and Democrat Monica Lindeen. Rehberg won by 6,643 votes and 19 percentage points. Burns only won in Gallatin County by 182 votes and a half of a percentage point.
In Flathead County -- traditionally a Burns county -- Tester still picked up 954 votes and 1.9 percentage points over Schweitzer in 2000. That's big considering Flathead was Schweitzer's home county.
And then there's Missoula County, where an outpouring of college students and young voters helped Tester but then again, historically, Missoula is where Democrats win big.
He did make some large gains in Missoula County, but comparatively, not more than he made in some of the more rural counties, like Chouteau or Hill Counties.
Looking back on the 2000 election, the margin in Missoula wasn't the gigantic leap it seems at first blush. In 2000, Schweitzer took Missoula County by 20 percentage points. This year, Tester beat Burns by 29 percentage points. Overall, though, Tester picked up 4,094 more votes in Missoula County than Schweitzer did (with a lower turnout because 2000 was a presidential election year) in 2000, which is nothing to sneeze at.
But, it still doesn't put a dent in the boost rural voters gave Tester -- a few votes at a time.
Postscript: This is just one way to slice results from the election and what numbers show here is likely unique to this particular comparison between this year's race and Burns' 2000 race against Schweitzer. If you know of other glances at different comparisons, by all means, share them here in comments.
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Thanks for pointing that out ... I hadn't forgotten, but I did forget that not everyone knows the demographics specifically. I'll add that into the story.
Thanks Mark!
Courtney
In Colorado, the "rural vote" can actually be pretty neatly divided into three categories, with only one tiny county breaking the rule.
Rural Southern Colorado (San Luis Valley and Pueblo) is Democrat and can be thought of as New Mexico/Hispanic influenced.
Counties with mountain/tourism based economies vote Democratic.
Rural counties that are neither vote Republican. These largely have agricultural or exurban economies.
Meanwhile Denver gets the urban vote, the most affluent suburbs and exurbs vote Republican, and the middle class suburbs are a battle ground.
I suspect that something similar is going on in Montana. While I don't have a graphic to back me up, my suspicion is that Tester is doing well in rural areas where there is Native American and/or mountain/tourism based economies, while Burns did better in the Eastern rural counties which have a more agricultural base.
You're right -- the rural vs. urban is crude by nature, but I think it's still worth comparing.
I would also be careful not to compare Colorado urban/rural to Montana urban/rural. The demographics are quite different.
You're right in saying Tester did do well in rural areas where the demographic is Native American or the economy is tourism based. But, the compelling numbers I found were gains Tester made in counties like my home county of Teton. Teton is up and coming as far as tourism goes, but the large majority of the county is sill agriculture based. There, Tester still lost, but he lost by 229 votes and amost 6 points less than Schweitzer did in 2000. Of course, his gains in Chouteau County have something to do with it being Tester's home, but if you wanted a rural/agriculture county in Motnana, Chouteau's a pretty county to show. (Both Teton and Chouteau County are central Montana, which is different, however, from eastern Montana.)
On the Eastern side of the state, Burns did indeed maintain his stronghold. He made gains in counties like Judith Basin, Fallon, Treasure, Wibaux. One of his biggest gains was in Garfield County.
But, he also lost votes in other counties out there that he won. In Petroleum County, he lost 71 votes and 17 points. In McCone County (heavily a ranching area), he lost 189 votes and 15 percentage points.
So, I'm not sure I can make any hard statements on those counties, but they do show something interesting.
I have lots of data here, so if anyone has questions, let me know and i can look them up. the numbers are still swirling in my head and on my desk :)
Nice piece, Courtney. Having read an analysis this morning that credits the tribes for Tester's win, I want to point out that there were several counties with strong Native populations besides Glacier, Big Horn, and Roosevelt that Tester carried. Since we're talking home counties, I'll brag about my own - Rosebud, home to the Crow and the Northern Cheyenne. Also, Lake County Natives must have swung the vote there as it usually goes Republican. Most of the rural counties that went for Tester had Native populations. Of course, when the vote was decided by less than one percent, you can also point to the additional Democratic votes in Missoula as the deciding factor. I'll take it either way!
You're very right about the other Native counties -- especially Lake County. That was one of the bigger counties he slid -- and he picked up net, 299 votes and 2.6 points in that county over Schweitzer.
And, in your home county of Rosebud, Tester added almost six points over Schweitzer's margin.
(I just figured I'd share the numbers since I didn't get all the numbers into the story :)
And, Feral Cat -- thanks for the insight on Sweet Grass county -- I'd wondered what the story was behind those numbers.
I know there are lots of numbers out there and many ways to slice the vote. So, if anyone else knows of any more crunches out there, please share. My crunch was only between 2000 and 2006 and the revelations are unique to that breakdown. So, I'd love to see other comparisons breaking down other historical data -- and especially and demographic-centered analysis.
Thanks everyone for the thoughtful responses.
The way I read it is Tester was unable to win his home county...period. I'm not sure where Schweitzer's home county is and the question would be, did he win his home county in his bid for Governor?
Yep, I think you're right -- it is a little of both. My analysis is basically showing that when you look at Schweitzer vs. Tester or the climate in 2000 vs. the climate in 2006, rural voters gave the biggest gains. That's not to say that this year the election was not won by Tester's big wins in places like Missoula. Instead, it's showing that there's another way to slice the numbers.
Steve, I don't think you read the whole story. I never wrote that Tester won his home county, only that he made big gains there and lessened the margin by a big amount. Again, as I've noted several times, this is just way of comparing.
And, as to your question on Schweitzer's home county. You must have missed this paragraph about Flathead (Which is still a Burns county, he won here by 16 percentage points and more than 5,000 votes)
"In Flathead County -- traditionally a Burns county -- Tester still picked up 954 votes and 1.9 percentage points over Schweitzer in 2000. That's big considering Flathead was Schweitzer's home county."
Tester ran against Burns, not Schweitzer. Again, this is just one way of slicing the vote -- by comparing it to what Schweitzer pulled in 2000 and I think it's an interesting look at the race, which is why I took the time to do the comparison.
As to your question about the Tester's district, you have to remember that districts are not divided along county lines, so Senate District 15 -- Tester's old district, includes parts of Chouteau, Fergus, Garfield, Judith Basin, McCone and Petroleum Counties.
Republican Rep. Jim Peterson won the seat this election by 3,300 votes.
Liberty was one of Burns' big wins. Let me look back at the numbers and see if I see anything in them.
You're right, Tester got 1,252 votes this year in Teton County, according to the Secretary of State's numbers.
What I did was a comparison of margins, which I should have been more clear about. So Burns' margin was 728 votes in 2000 and 503 this year. (I was wrong in my comment above -- the difference is 225, not 229).
And, if it helps, the third party candidate in 2000, Gary Lee, grabbed 62 votes to Jones' 57 votes this year in Teton county.
Also turnout was higher -- about 229 votes higher in 2000, so that's why I also used the comparison of percentage point margins. So in Teton, Burns won by about 22 percent in 2000 and by 16 percent in 2006.
So, that's the number I'm using. I should have been more clear about that and will comb through the story to make sure I make that more clear. (I wish I would have had your Mom for math, that's for sure.)
As so what the analysis shows: I don't think farmers are eating tofu (jeez, can you imagine our Dads eating tofu?). Rather, I think your comments are spot on. My uncle Jim in Brady (old farmer-type Vietnam vet) said he felt like Burns had just been there too long and was hanging out with the wrong people. (Check out my after election column about that here.) And, like you, I always use my Dad as a litmus test. If you put Clyde in a room with Burns (or Schweitzer for that matter) they would have nothing to talk about. If you put my Dad in a room with Jon Tester, they'd talk all day about wheat, the weather, you know, farmer stuff. I think those big margins Tester made smaller in places like Teton County had more to do with that than it had to do with politics. I'm admittedly pollyannic about that, but just as you suggest, I like to think that voters in places like Teton County see more of the person and the policies (i.e. conservative rather than Republican) than they do the Big R's or D's by the name. So, I think he had that appeal, I know he resonated with my Dad -- but you're right, we'll have to see if it works out or not.
Ryan, it's wonderful to have your perspective here and please, tell your folks and your brother hi for me.
There really were no other issues for you? Abramoff was the just the tip of the iceberg. Too much has been made of the scandal, but in almost the opposite way. If you think that was the only reason the election turned out in Tester's favor, your sorely mistaken.
-Californiamontanacan
Despite the war and all the supposed “failings” of the Bush administration. Tester only got 3872 more votes than Schweitzer (population increase alone would account for this), but Burns lost 12,627 (despite population increase) votes from six years ago. This shows Montana isn’t changing, it is still very conservative and any untainted conservative could have beaten Tester.
Also, Tester was a great candidate and will be a great Senator. I think it's unreasonable to expect canidates to be experts before even getting elected. "what's your plan for Iraq?" Give me a break! Conviction (the good kind), aptitude, charisma, common sense, an open mind, and a grasp of the English language are what set tester apart for me and I assume, others.
And this whole GOP thing about them loosing, but the Dems not really winning...Jesus.Is that what happened in '04 too? "Yep. Old Conrad gave that one away. Guess folks finally figured out he was a racist biggot".
-Californiamontanacan
GREEN SOLUTIONS by Paul Stephens, CasCoGreens
Democrats lose decisively in Montana: With IRV, Burns is returned to the Senate
Finally, we get another good chance to show the Republicans the value of Instant Runoff Voting (IRV). It would have saved them in Montana, while in Virginia, the Independent Progressive candidate nearly cost the Democrats that state. With IRV, Republicans would still control the U.S. Senate. Perhaps because of better "family values", Republicans are more rational than the Democrats in not hating and resenting their political mentors. That could easily change, though.
The Libertarians will easily keep their ballot status in Montana, even though it cost Republicans control of the entire Senate of the United States. Stan Jones, who got more than 10,000 votes, might temporarily be the most hated man in America to Republicans in other states, if not Montana. We Greens will stand shoulder to shoulder with him, hoping to convince the Republican Lame Duck Congress (and next year's Montana Legislature) that it's time for a national change to Instant Runoff Voting.
Meanwhile, I'm sure Montana Democrats will be saying, "See? With IRV, the Republicans would have won! You'll never get me to support IRV!"
http://www.fairvote.org
Could they really be that stupid? You bet they could. There are few, if any, fair-minded strategists in the whole Democratic Party -- and certainly not in Montana. They are what the Objectivists used to call "concrete-bound." The James Carville mentality rules. They have no principles whatsoever. Whatever it takes to win in a particular race is their whole party philosophy, and it will be different in each individual case. But the one tendency which they will never wish to abandon is that they don't need to be fair to their opponents, or apply the same rules to themselves which they apply to others (unless they're part of the same "nuclear family"). We all pay for that lack of ethics on a daily basis.
In this respect, we believe the Republicans are better (although we'd be hard-pressed to prove it in this election!). They would rather lose in a fair election than win in a crooked one -- some of them would, anyway. It's what we used to call "sportsmanship" -- a forgotten concept, today, in sports as well as politics. And that was why they hated the Machine Democrats so intensely: Democrats didn't seem to have that sense of fairness. They reveled in their criminality and strong-arm tactics and connections.
By now, of course, the major parties are neither ethical nor fair. And that's why about half of eligible voters rarely vote at all, or if they do, vote very selectively and independently. Instant Runoff Voting would change all that. Everyone would be free, uncoerced, and enthusiastic about voting for their first choice. The reason that Greens, Libertarians, Constitution Party, or Reform Party candidates rarely win is that the two major parties devote most of their campaign resources to convincing the voters that they are the only two viable choices.
Remember "A vote for Nader is a vote for Bush"? More Democrats still believe that than believe in God. With Instant Runoff Voting, a vote for Nader would have been a vote for Bush if, and only if, the voter had specified Bush as her second choice, and few would have done that. Most Gore voters, on the other hand, might well have specified Nader as their second choice, and vice versa. A likely outcome would have been Gore winning by 55% of the first- plus second-choice votes, and Nader getting nearly as many -- he could have even won outright. A peculiarity of IRV is that if the two leading parties are closely balanced, an independent or non-partisan third candidate can easily win -- even if he only gets a small percentage of the first-choice votes.
More importantly, it changes the whole nature of the campaign. Democrats needn't fear candidates to the left of them, because if they're not pandering to the right wing, they'll get most Green or other Left votes as a second choice. Polls have repeatedly shown that only 30% of the electorate is actually in favor of the Bush/Cheney oil/coal, Christian Fundamentalist agenda. The others are voting AGAINST "tax and spend liberals", gun control, flag burners, and gay marriage -- none of which has anything to do with good government or sound foreign policy. Under these circumstances, a fiscally conservative, anti-war, pro-labor, environmentalist candidate like Ralph Nader would be a favorite to win.
For Greens, Nader was a far better candidate than Gore, but most of us would have voted for Gore as a second choice, and a lot more of us would have voted for him first-choice if he had run as an environmentalist and government reform person (his real positions). Instead, he concealed his virtues, and tried to appeal to militarists, racists, and anti-welfare people from the South, where he ended up not carrying a single state. Democrats need to learn to stop pandering. If you don't agree with something, don't do it and don't claim to be in favor of it. Trying to be "all things to all men" results in being nothing to nobody.
Voting is as often a negative as a positive choice. Montanans didn't so much vote for Bush as they voted against Kerry and Gore. And this time, a third of them voted against Burns rather than for Tester. The Republicans would have obviously won with a different candidate like Rehberg or Racicot. I have the Democrats' own word (or expressed fears) for that. This is a lesson which was also lost on Jon Tester and his campaign strategists.
False pretenses
A majority of Montana voters did not vote for Tester, who started his campaign for the Senate as an overwhelming favorite. Because of the campaign he ran, focusing on Burns' "corruption" with anti-Semitic overtones (against Abramoff & associates), anti-government and anti-Washington themes, opposition to amnesty and support for "sealing the borders," etc., liberals and Greens can rightfully feel that he won by running under false pretenses.
Even though Senator-elect Tester may believe some of these things on an implicit level, they are more the product of his media campaign and the Montana Democratic Party than they are his own views. Greens were especially outraged when the Tester campaign brought Gen. Wesley Clark to Montana, and Tester seemed to adopt his views on the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions and occupations, which he had previously opposed. He also joined the local chorus of military retirees and Malmstrom AFB boosters, and their perennial cry to save our nuclear Doomsday Machine (200 Minuteman ICBM's with 375kt nuclear warheads) and increase military spending overall. Tester actually had a TV ad which said "I will fight anyone who wants to close Malmstrom", which was taken to mean that he didn't want to convert it to peaceful, taxpaying, or even legitimate military purposes. Tester lost the support of most of the peace and anti-war voters at this time, and obviously gained not a single veteran's or military contractor's vote. In fact, the anti-war veteran's vote is probably the majority here in Great Falls, and most of them are Democrats. Tester's switcheroo resulted in Conrad Burns receiving most of the military vote in Great Falls -- something which he wouldn't otherwise have done. Burns made a similar mistake: he bucked the polls, and refused to question the Bush policy on Iraq. Had he done so (like some Republicans in other states), he would have easily won.
Besides the "Yellow Dog Democrats" (those who vote for anyone with a [D] after his name), the only vote Tester clearly won was the Independent vote. A majority of those who don't belong to a party, or whose party (like the Greens) was not on the ballot, voted for Tester. However, it was a much narrower victory than it should have been. One news story based on exit polls said that 30% of those who voted for Tester were less troubled by Tester's "liberalism" than Burns' corruption and "Washington ways." They were voting specifically AGAINST Burns, and these would have been Independents, Reform Party and Constitution Party voters who will always vote for an honest Republican. This includes such elements as the Militia and others who believe we have a "Zionist Occupation Government" utterly dominated by "the Israel Lobby."
At the same time, Montana Jews and liberals overwhelmingly supported Tester, and indeed were entirely responsible for his victory, along with the college town of Missoula and the "Mining City" of Butte, where Tester won by better than 2-1 margins. BUT THESE PEOPLE ARE DEMOCRATS ANYWAY! Some might have voted for a Green or Independent Progressive. In this election, it could have been 20%, given Tester's strong turn to the right on military, immigrant, gay rights, drug laws, and other issues where he pandered to people's fears and prejudices, but few would have wanted to risk a Burns victory. Had Paul Richards stayed in the primary race, we would have found out just how many such voters there are, and how many of them otherwise consider themselves Democrats. But Morrison distorted that "test," and the polls were obviously rigged to show that a green-progressive would get no support.
What we need is a Machine Democrat running against a Progressive Green in the primary. In most cases, the Progressive Green would win (as Steve Kelly did in 2002). Tester pretended to be a P-G in the primary (and thus forced Richards to withdraw), but proved to be just as much a Party man in the general election. It's either do that or be cut off entirely from Party support (as Kelly was). Again, it was the Democratic Party's strategy which was at fault, not Tester as a candidate. He was a good candidate made to look like a bad one, and it very nearly cost him the election.
When Kelly ran as an Independent against Pat Williams and a nondescript Republican, he got 10 % of the vote in a general election where Pat got about 60%, as I recall. This, I have argued ever since, is the real "voter's profile" in Montana -- 50-60% traditional Democratic and "pro-good-government", and 10-20% Independent Progressive who would be glad to support a Green or any similar agenda -- even against a solid Democrat like Pat Williams. Only 30% are actually die-hard right-wing Republican "obstructionists", Fundamentalist Christian, anti-environment (largely because they believe the world is about to end), and pro-police state, and most of these are against sending U.S. troops overseas to fight and die in senseless wars. They used to be against assaults on the Bill of Rights (like gun laws and the PATRIOT ACT) and other government intrusion in private life, but that view was distorted by the post-911 propaganda campaign. Again, Conrad Burns miscalculated badly by voting for, and refusing to denounce, the PATRIOT ACT. This was the best evidence that he is not a "real Montanan."
So, aside from the national Republican/Bushite propaganda, Conrad Burns was appealing to a constituency which did not exist. Nearly every die-hard Republican voted for him, because that's what they do, but beyond that brain-dead cadre, Burns had little support. Had the Democrats ran a normal liberal-progressive campaign, they would have easily carried practically every race, and Tester would have won by at least a 2-1 margin. Montana, of course, is a special case, and the only state this time where Republicans actually gained in the state legislature. This, alone, should be a "wake up call" to Montana Democratic strategists, except that they're apparently in a permanent coma.
After his compromised, stupid, and reactive campaign, Tester very nearly lost to a Republican who was almost universally disgraced and despised. In other large cities, Tester lost in Billings and Bozeman, and only carried Great Falls by 172 votes out of 30,000. (Great Falls is a Democratic stronghold, where the legislative delegation is overwhelmingly Democratic, and we often elect Democrats by a similar 2-1 margin in statewide races). Obviously, many Great Falls Democrats voted for Burns -- most likely because he was supported by senior military people here, and Tester proved he didn't understand the issues important to military people -- like political interference in military campaigns, pork-barrel budgets and wasted spending on useless weapon systems, cuts in Veteran's benefits, war profiteering from winless wars, nuclear proliferation, etc.
The Military-Industrial Complex likes wars and expensive weapons systems. ("War is good for business. Invest your son.") The soldiers who actually fight wars do not want to be there -- especially if it is an unjust and genocidal war. Great Falls voters are about 1/3 veterans, active duty and Guard soldiers and retirees, not military contractors and suppliers. The Chamber of Commerce "Base Boosters," of course, are overwhelmingly Republican, along with Baucus-style Democrats, and they support any and all pork-barrel spending, as well as more military spending overall. But Malmstrom has no legitimate military mission besides the Red Horse civil engineers. Otherwise, it is a Doomsday Machine -- a mission favored by Apocalyptic Fundamentalist Republicans, Boeing, and the nuclear lobby who profit from it. But it is not favored by the enlisted men (or even most officers) who "work" there. Obviously, Tester has no understanding of these issues, while Burns knew what to say to any particular audience or constituency.
Had Tester merely shown that he supports the troops (now and later, which Republicans haven't traditionally done) while opposing the military-industrial complex, nuclear proliferation, and oil wars, he would have carried most of the military vote. The appearance of Wesley Clark totally subverted this positive message, as well as being a slap in the face to the considerable Montana peace and justice constituency -- nearly all of whom would otherwise have supported Tester enthusiastically.
Burns voted against the Clinton-Albright attack on Serbia in which Wesley Clark was the Commander in Chief of the NATO forces. This war blatantly violated three out of 5 Articles of the NATO Charter, and effectively marked the end of NATO as a legitimate European institution (85% of Europeans opposed it, and several governments fell which had supported it. Nowadays, NATO is merely a front for American Oil Imperialism, and a chance for former Communist countries to ingratiate themselves with their new American masters). I would conservatively estimate that Clark's appearance in Montana supporting Tester cost him at least 20,000 votes, because that war was vastly unpopular in this heavily Slavic mining and smelter state. And Clark was the Clinton-DLC favorite (as well as Michael Moore's) in the 2004 Democratic primary. He may well be Hillary's VP in the 2008 election -- a recipe for certain failure if ever there was one.
The constant (and false) propaganda in Great Falls that Malmstrom is our "economic base," where the active duty troops count as "jobs", didn't help Tester, either, who expressed agreement with it, while most of these active duty personnel vote in other states. Burns got most of the military vote here because he is a veteran, and is known as a military booster and pork broker. Tester would have been far better off sticking to his promise to bring the troops home as quickly as possible, supporting universal health care, and reducing military spending overall. The military is a socialist system, and the arguments in favor of it can easily be applied to other areas of public policy. Military bases typically have better schools, better health care, and better community support services than their surrounding communities, and this is certainly true in Great Falls.
Universal Health Care
Adopting a military-style system of universal health care would reduce everyone's costs, while improving services for everyone but the very rich (who could still be allowed to upgrade quality from their own resources). The main advantage of universal health care is that it substitutes preventive medicine for heroic cures and marginal life extension, at a savings of 16-1. ("An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." In fact, the ratio is probably more like 100-1). And with cost-based pricing, medical costs would reflect the least expensive strategies, rather than the most costly to consumers, taxpayers, and private insurance companies. So-called "market pricing" practiced by health care corporations and drug companies is now legally permitted, and it is actually based on the cost of the next best alternative. For example, if a drug regimen is a substitute for $50,000 worth of surgery, the drugs are actually priced so that the patient will be billed just slightly less than $50,000, even if the actual cost of the drugs is only $500. Obviously, rigorous price controls for all medical products and services is the order of the day. Will Jon Tester support this? Let's make sure he does.
And lest we think that Tester's "rural populism" was actually popular in most rural counties, Tester lost in most of them by at least a 2-1 margin. In his own Chouteau County, which of course was his stronghold when he ran for the Montana Senate, he lost to Burns by 57 votes, and this doesn't include those who voted Libertarian. Isn't it strange that a third generation homestead farmer and President of the Montana Senate shouldn't be able to carry his own rural constituency against a corrupt, Missouri-born corporate sell-out? It's the best tangible proof of the counter-productiveness of his TV advertising and other Democratic campaign strategies -- especially bringing in Wesley Clark and Max Baucus, who are more hated by honest conservatives than Burns.
I've often said that given a choice between Burns and Baucus, I would vote for Burns. That's still true, and I'm sure it is for most Montanans. The reason that Baucus keeps winning is that he controls the Montana Democratic Machine, and his being a Senator is of great value to the Republicans. Next time, though, they will want to defeat him, if only because control of the Senate may again rest on the outcome of who is elected from Montana. Baucus would be wise to switch parties before the next election. He could do so, now, and thus restore a Republican majority to the Senate. Stranger things have happened. Maybe that would finally convince Montana Democrats that he should have been recalled long ago!
Even though Tester's victory in Montana marks a comeback for Democrats on the national level, they didn't do nearly so well in state and local races. Although the youth and Native American vote were widely recognized as being decisive, the margins are probably less than any earlier election (that is to say, more "youth" are voting Republican than ever before in Montana, along with many other states). In the 2004 election, only 25% of the Indian vote went to Republicans, and that was a big gain over earlier days, when Indians either didn't vote, or voted almost exclusively Democratic. This was largely the result of Senator McCaine's support for the Indian Trust Funds settlement, and local Republicans courting the Indian vote in the wake of Senator Baucus' frequent slights and insults to local Native groups and issues.
Burns did support many ear-marks for various Indian tribes because of his connections with Abramoff. And who's to say that these rip-offs were any worse than what Indians have suffered in the past? This time, Burns got 40% of the Indian vote, with the Little Shell leadership (4500 "landless Indians" based here in Great Falls) actually endorsing Burns and Rehberg. This was because the Republicans reached out to them and their past Chairman, James Parker Shields (who was also a local Republican boss), while the Baucus Democrats have treated all Indian tribes badly, including sponsoring prisons and nuclear waste dumps as "economic development" for reservations.
Republicans (plus 1 Constitution Party representative) will likely control both houses of the Montana Legislature, and most of us consider Gov. Schweitzer a Republican for all practical purposes.
Tester is now promising to represent only "middle class families" (not the rich and super-rich, corporations, minorities, or the poor), and certainly not the victimized, imprisoned, the unemployed, immigrants, etc. Fortunately, he is vaguely anti-corporate, and as an organic farmer, he will probably oppose GMO's and most corporate agribusiness subsidies. And he will presumably support minimum wage increases -- perhaps even "living wage" legislation, and contrary to some of his campaign rhetoric, he's not likely to vote for new "big ticket" weapon systems and foreign wars. It all depends on his "transition team" and other staff, and I don't know who that would be, or anyone on the short list. Hopefully, they'll include some environmentalists and military reform people. He promised me and other opponents of further coal development that he would be the strongest advocate for renewable energy in the entire Senate. This is a promise we expect him to keep.
In summary, it is very important to understand that this was not a victory for "democracy," and in Montana, at least, even the Democratic Party did not win. Instead, it followed the usual losing and self-destructive strategies. The party of Max Baucus and Schweitzer, war and PATRIOT ACTS, coal plants, agribusiness, and corporate welfare, did not deserve to win, and their past victories, for the rest of us, were worse than defeats.
Hopefully, the lame duck Republican Congress and the new Republican-controlled Montana Legislature will have the wisdom to implement Instant Runoff Voting and other conservative and ethical policies. All should agree that it's time to end the race to the bottom, and the destruction of our economy, environment, Constitution, and reputation among the other nations of the world. Republicans and Democrats are equally guilty, so it's up to them to either change their ways or abandon the "two party system of denial and blame" for a new vision and agenda -- preferably the conservative 10 Key Values of the Green Party.
-- Paul Stephens
I know this will start a firestorm, but Bush has a plan for Iraq (http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html) and we are about 2/3 of the way to completion. It is absolutely criminal how the biased media has fueled the impression there is no plan.
For a second I though we would be able to find some common ground. Then you throw out false terms like, “racist bigot”. Once again I am proven right that libs are actually far more likely to stereotype and pigeonhole people than conservatives. You all talk the talk of being open minded, but I rarely find a lib who walks the walk.
-Californiamontanacan
There's also a huge difference b/t being a Washington insider for the past 18 years and being asked if you have a plan, and asking a challenger. Burns has been there voting over and over on Iraq. He had far superior access to the administration, and I presume "intelligence". I'd rather have a supple thinker get involved, get informed, and then formulate a plan..... not bring a plan to a situation they have no idea about..... which pretty much sums up the Bush admins. approach to Iraq thus far.
-Californiamontanacan
Still waiting for your proof Burns is a racist. You better have the facts to back up such a terrible accusation. Libs have been falsely calling conservative racists for a long time and I am sick of it. Way more republicans voted for the civil right act and we don’t have a KKK member and the “moral compass” of our party.
The facts on Burns are well documented. I'm not going to play this GOP bs game where you deny occurences that have been documented the world over, and then chalk them up to "a liberal media conspiracy". The facts are there, face up to them.
-Californiamontanacan
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00B14F83D5B0C718EDDA90994DC494D81&n=Top/Reference/TimesTopics/People/B/Burns,Conrad
This is the last I'll post on this. Have a GREAT turkey day.
-Californiamontanacan
The Democrat party defended slavery in the 19th century and segregation for much of the 20th century. The governors who stood in schoolhouse doorways were all Democrats. The segregationist senators who filibustered the 1964 and 1965 Civil Rights Acts were all Democrats. The party that elected Klansman Bob Byrd as its leader in the Senate was the Democrat party. It was the democrats who shameless paraded a black woman around in an effort to trump up false charges against Clarence Thomas. It was democrats who illegally obtained the credit report of an African American Republican in an effort to dig up dirt. Bill Clinton’s mentor was William Fulbright a segregationist. On the flip side, Bush has appointed more minorities to higher positions than any other president. The last six years has produced the biggest increases in home and business ownership among African Americans. African American republicans like Ken Blackwell, Michael Steele (who was pelted with oreo cookies by democrats), and Lynn Swan were welcomed with open arms into the party during the last election. And if you want to go way back it was a Republican who freed the slaves.
Being a racist is far more than saying something stupid, it is how you act. But if you want to muddy the waters with just what people say: Brd has used the “N” word in public many times, Howard Dean implied to get blacks in a room the wait staff had to be invited, Steny Hoyer used the term “token” and “slavishly” about an African American republican.
I can go toe to toe with you all day on words, but actions should count for more in an “honest” debate. There are more than enough examples above for you to take a second look at your preconceived notations. Open your "open mind" and see the truth.