STATE OF THE ROCKIES

Report: Unsettling Climate Changes Hover Over Ski Industry

By Tonya Poole, 4-14-06

Thursday's panel discussion on climate change brought together scientists, environmental advocates and policy specialists pros to combine data and commentary on the hot (literally) topic of climate change. Not to be interchanged with global warming, climate change refers to both cyclical and provoked changes in temperature, moisture and other climactic factors on the earth's surface and in the atmosphere. Moderator Matthew Reuer of the Colorado College environmental science program led the discussion, which ranged from light-hearted commentary to heavy-duty data analysis in exploration of what the Rockies can expect from above and below over the next several decades.

Panel members included student researcher Gregory Zimmerman, Colorado State Climatologist Roger Pielke Sr., UC Boulder Professor of Environmental Studies Roger Pielke Jr., and Aspen Skiing Company's Director of Environmental Affairs, Auden Schendler.

Panel Recap
With glaciers retreating at alarming rates, polar sea ice declining at a rate of almost 10% each decade and unprecedented levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, there's little doubt: we're in the throes of substantial climate change. And what it means for us as a region will become the topic of increasingly critical conversations between climatologists and policy-makers. Reuer pointed to Hurricane Katrina as one of the events of our time that awakened many of us to the issue and to the increasing intensity of tropical storms, coinciding with higher and still rising sea surface temperatures. It's not the worst we'll see in our own lifetimes, if predictions are accurate, and panelists stressed the importance of supporting leadership that is aware of and committed to acting on the issues of global climate shifts.

Zimmerman presented data on the rise in levels of gases that contribute to the warming of the earth's surface and atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Since pre-industrial levels were measured, the amount of atmospheric concentrations of methane alone has more than doubled. Using “business as usual” and “reduced emissions” models, he demonstrated the changes we can expect to see throughout the Rockies through the year 2085. The projection for both summer and winter temperature increases were profoundly affected in the reduced emissions model, avoiding increases by as much as 5°Celsius or more in some areas.

Shifts toward a warmer climate will affect water resources, ecosystems, tourism and, in many ways, quality of life across the Rockies. Reduced snow pack means not only reduced tourism dollars in the winter season, but reduced run off in spring and summer months – a natural process Colorado's front range depends heavily on for 50-80% of its water during drier months. Zimmerman's presentation noted that migration and hibernation patterns of species across the board would be altered, requiring mass adaptation (and dangers of extinction to those not able to adapt) and fire hazards across the region would increase. Towns dependent primarily on winter recreation would be left to struggle – with sampled projections of up to 89% loss in snow pack in Taos and similarly devastating numbers for other areas of the region.

“The first step is that we need to realize that climate change is the real deal,” said Zimmerman, stressing that successful transition and adaptation on our own part means we then need to begin to change our behavior and resource management techniques accordingly.

Pielke Sr. provided a scientific look at the natural and human forces affecting climate change, and discussed components of the climate system and its offenders. Carbon dioxide, aerosols and land cover changes (largely due to development) were identified as the biggest culprits. Pielke Jr. stepped up to talk about the role of science in public policy, and, consequently, the politicization of science – as research and development in the U.S. continue to be a $130 billion dollar industry. Using the conundrums of science and legislation surrounding issues like Preble's Mouse, he illustrated how, in a great many cases, public opinion and conclusion tends to be formed less by what constitutes good, solid science and more by how a given position connects to each of our ideologies and political belief systems. Often, those tendencies can hold back the pursuit of practical solutions and, in this case, preparation for change.

Ski-industry environmental expert Auden Schendler spoke about the winter recreation industry's long road ahead toward sustainability and preparation for a new economy – one that embraces energy-efficiency and smart use of resources. Illustrating his key points with a variety of impressive examples, Schendler demonstrated how he and the team at Aspen Skiing Company have taken the reigns and created North America's most sustainable, “green” resort – one that not only consumes less energy and decreases emissions, but saves a substantial amount of money in the long-run for multiple win/win outcomes. He continues to serve as an active advocate for environmental responsibility in the industry.

“We all have a soapbox,” Schendler said in closing, “and we should use it.”

Discussion: Whether through natural or artificial triggers, our world is changing. How do we best prepare for what's ahead, and what might it mean to live and work in the Rockies with little to no vitality remaining from a badly-crippled winter recreation industry?

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