IDAHO WOLF PLAN
Ritualistic Killing, Not Science
By Guest Comment, Guest Writer, 3-11-06
By Ralph Maughan
Editor’s note: The following is a guest comment containing some new insight into Idaho’s handling of its newly acquired control of wolf management and the “public involvement” process I harpooned in this week’s column. Ralph Maughan is a long-time Idaho conservationist and expert in environmental politics from Pocatello. He has written several books and teaches political science at Idaho State University. His website, Ralph Maughan’s Wildlife Reports, is among the most informative for conservationists. Check it out.—Bill Schneider
Despite over 42,000 individual comments against their proposal to kill wolves in what most biologists say is a futile effort to increase the elk population in the upper Clearwater River of Idaho, the Idaho Fish and Game Commission is expected to submit a slightly revised proposal to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to do just this.
On March 3 the Commission met and considered the embarrassingly large outpouring of public sentiment against their proposal.
Not surprisingly, however, it looks like they will forge ahead, although the matter is supposed to be reviewed for its scientific adequacy by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service before it can be approved under the modified ESA "10J" rule under which Idaho is now managing the wolves. This gives Idaho a free hand now except for wolf reductions where wolves are having "unacceptable impacts on big game herds," which this proposal purports to be.
The Boise office of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will review the Idaho proposal, which was also faulted by the peer reviewers (neutral scientists in the field of wildlife biology).
Why would the Commission forge ahead? First, they convinced themselves that the input was from "outsiders," because most were sent through Defenders of Wildlife web site. However, hard copy letters, public testimony, and other email also opposed the proposal 2:1.
The answer is, I think, that blaming predators for fewer elk than in days gone bye is a long-standing, locally generated proposal that follows traditional thinking among political active sportsmen in the area (folk wisdom). The Fish and Game Commission is beholden to sportsmen and the governor's office. This won't change until there is new governor. The incumbent is retiring, and Idahoans will have a real choice in points of view on many subjects between Republican congressman Butch Otter (retiring to run for governor) and newspaper publisher Jerry Brady the Democrat.
Matters also won't change until local folks organize on wildlife issues to overcome the entrenched views and defeat a county commissioner or two and a couple of state legislators. The political weakness of people who don't support 1950s views about the purpose of wildlife is that they are not organized into local groups. That's why 42,000 comments can be dismissed. Defenders of Wildlife has many members, but they don't have local chapters of people willing and able to do political groundwork. If a group is locally organized, it's often easy to elect or defeat county commissioners, especially rural ones.
In the absence of local organization, the solution is going to court and showing a judge that the plan is not scientific. In fact, it's laughable. They collared 64 adult elk cows. 25 died or were killed over the period of study. Eight were killed by wolves. What would a politician say to a pollster who came in with results from interviewing just 64 people—"you don't get paid!" So it is easy to dismiss the "science" in principle, but it costs money, and in the meantime the state of Idaho and Montana are trying to work out a deal to overcome the legal fact that wolves are still not delisted from the Endangered Species Act because of Wyoming's truculence on the issue.
Idaho and Montana would like the Department of the Interior to say that wolves are delisted even though the original rule said it was all three states at once, or none at all. If Idaho and Montana are successful, review by USFWS would not be needed. No pretense need be made about a scientific proposal, although a court might still derail the "deal" that is struck.
Why does it matter, anyway? Maybe it doesn't. Idaho has over 500 wolves and this would reduce the total by maybe 30-50 wolves for 5 years.
The danger is this, killing carnivores is the easiest response to make to hunters who say there are not enough elk (or other game animals). Killing carnivores usually does not increase game populations, but it is action. People like to see action even if it is but ritualistic slaughter. In times past how many people were sacrificed to the gods? Very doubtful that nature was appeased, but little doubt those watched the sacrifice felt a whole lot better. Multiple sacrifices of bears, cougars, and wolves in new areas will make folks even happier.
The Idaho Fish and Game proposal is ritualistic killing, not science. They need a lot more data before it could be science, but budgets are set in the short run, and ritualistic endeavor usually works wonders.
Bill Schneider has written a great essay on the seeming pointlessness of public involvement. I tend to agree with him, but I can see several counterarguments. First, you or your group's participation in public involvement is usually needed to establish your standing to sue in a court of law. Secondly, losing the battle of numbers really hurts when the authorities are already against you. Third, once people see how disenfranchised they are you have the makings of a political movement if only someone will pick up the pieces and organize them.
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Comments
You list elk herds on your page that are thriving and over populated in Montana and Idaho, yet it appears that herds in wolf impacted areas are not doing so well, this herd and the northern Yellowstone herd come to mind. I have noticed that they didn't release the count of the northern herd this year, however it has decreased dramatically since the wolves were brought in. Why would this herd be expected to not be impacted? Hunting of wolves is a means of controlling them in Alaska where they have always been.
With regard to the Lolo/Clearwater herd. The population estimate has actually increased this year. Is that because there are fewer wolves? No. There are not that many wolves present to begin with and the numbers haven't increased to a great degree. The decline started before there were many wolves present in the first place and actually started before the reintroduction. People have been concerned about the habitat changes since the 1980's at least.
The main problem there is habitat that is not as suitable for elk as it once was. Three factors are involved. First, is the regrowth of thick stands of forest after the 1910 fires. Second, clearcuts have not mimicked the former burns and have created roads that give access to hunters and poachers. Third, spotted knapweed has invaded the area and made it even less productive than it would otherwise be for elk.
Think of it this way: The elk were at a highest population that the habitat could support. Along comes the bad winter of 96/97 that killed large numbers of elk. The habitat is not able to rebuild the same large population because it has changed. IDFG allowed the increase of bear and cougar hunting and the elk population did not increase. What makes you think that the elk population would increase beyond the capacity of the habitat?
The peer reviews of the proposal indicate that the elk population is limited by habitat not predation.
The biologists for IDFG tend to think that there will be little effect on the elk or the wolf population overall. That is why this is a politically motivated proposal.
I am not familiar with the Lolo/Clearwater area, but I have know a lot of G&F;biologists, and I trust the judgement of those managing that area. They do not have an agenda that I have been able to determine. Unfortunately the same cannot be said of wolf proponents.
Take a look at what is happening to the wolf/moose situation on Isle Royale. The moose population has decreased by more than half in 4 years, and the wolves are killing each other for territory/food.
The huge drops happen in both wolf and wolfless areas during hard winters. In the winter of 96/97 there were very few wolves in the Lolo/Clearwater and there was a massive decline anyway. Was that because of wolves? No. The same thing in Yellowstone that year. Look at the bison population. In 96/97 the population dropped by 2/3 due to DoL killing (1083) and winter kill (±1000) leaving ± 1000 animals. The Park Service claims that 500 bison have died from winterkill this year. The 18000 elk in the northern range was not sutainable. The 8000/9000 count has been consistent for the last few years and is at a sustainable level. I would assume that winterkill is going to take a large number this year. That isn't due to wolves. I have personally seen some winterkill this year in Yellowstone and surrounding areas.
The Lolo/Clearwater won't support a large herd of elk until the logging roads are closed and there is another big fire. Even then maybe there won't be large herds because of knapweed.
I'm sure you are aware that those wolves did totally eliminate the deer herd on Isle Royale. What makes you so sure the same cannot happen to the moose there? What makes you so sure that they won't eliminate elk in various areas, or does it really matter?
I frankly do not know the Lolo are, but I do generally speaking trust the F&G;biologists to know what is going on.
The moose on Isle Royale will always outnumber wolves. If the moose population drops below a certain density the wolves will starve. They cannot kill all of the moose on Isle Royal. It takes energy to accomplish something like that and where do the wolves get their energy? Moose.
Population dynamics and predator prey relationships would show that once a prey population gets below a certain point the resources of the prey increases and their health increases. When the prey density gets below a certain point wolves will either kill each other, starve, or disperse.
The problem in the Lolo is that the prey density is below socially wanted levels but the habitat has changed and can't support the populations that it once did. It never has had many wolves and the wolf population will decrease if the population declines further. Some people argue that the wolves won't allow the elk population to "recover" but the problem is that the habitat can only support a certain number of elk.
Remember that elk are adapted for the plains not the heavily forested mountains. Just because that is where we see them most often doesn't mean that is the best habitat. They would rather be where there is a lot of food (grass) not in the forest where grass doesn't receive the sunlight it needs to produce elk meat. Also the Lolo is fairly high elevation and there is very little winter habitat nearby so that is another limiting factor.
Elk, moose and deer evolved with wolves as predators so they can withstand wolf predation as a population. Only when the habitat can't support them in large enough numbers does a population dissappear from an area.
The wolf killing proposal was created top down not bottom up. The biologists were told to put this together because of politics and a lack of understanding by the general public about predator/prey/habitat dynamics.
The fact is, the wolf situation we have now is unlike any in history because of the near total protection they enjoy. They story hasn't been written yet, and everyone including wolfers are spinning it the way they want to believe it will go. There are no facts to rely on in a situation like has been set up, becaeu never in history has it happened like this before.
I don't know what happened to the deer on Isle Royale. If deer could reinhabit the island I'm sure they would. The problem with that analogy is that it is an island. It's not the same as comparing it to Yellowstone and the Lolo/Clearwater area.
By the way is there any shortage of deer in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota where wolves have been protected for over a decade? No. In fact they can't kill them fast enough because the habitat is very good deer habitat.
how do you ignore the overwhelming public comment on one issue, then in the next breath point to public comment as the determining factor on another issue (especially when the public comment still runs contrary to the vote)?
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when i hunt, i like to get out of my pickup and hike around for awhile...