just northwest of missoula
Black Cat Fire Runs Southwest, Crews Confident Lines Will Hold
By NewWest.Net Staff, 8-15-07
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| An airtanker drops fire retardant on the Black Cat fire near Evaro on Wednesday. The Black Cat fire was detected Tuesday afternoon five miles east of Frenchtown Pond and has since grown to 600 acres. BELOW: Although police escorted motorists along Highway 93 north of Missoula on Tuesday evening due to the close proximity of the Black Cat fire, motorists on Wednesday were permitted to travel freely through the area. BOTTOM: Montana Rail Link workers apply “slime” to the Marent Trestle near Evaro on Wednesday morning to help protect it from the fire growing directly across Highway 93. Photos by Anne Medley. | |
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Updated 9:30 p.m. MDT The Black Cat Fire near Evaro, north of Missoula and west of Highway 93, made a run Wednesday night to the southwest with a change of wind and was nearing the drainage to the north of Fred’s Lane.
No new evacuations were ordered and fire crews were confident the fire would hold in the drainage overnight behind retardant and contingency lines crews were able to get in early Wednesday, said a recorded message from the fire’s information officer Paula Rosenthal. Fire crews from the Frenchtown Rural Fire Department were working overnight to protect homes in the area.
Evacuations remain in effect for residences—at least 20—on the west side of highway 93, south of Bear Grass Mountain Road and North of O’Keefe. Homes on the east side of 93 were issued a pre-evacuation notice Wednesday. The fire remains more than a mile from the nearest homes.
Crews spent most of the day Wednesday on the fire’s eastern flank, the side closest to homes (although there are several homes to the north of the fire as well), building line as air support dropped water and retardant to slow the blaze from crossing Highway 93, Rosenthal said earlier Wednesday evening. Dozers working on the north side of the fire also got help from the two helicopters and one air tanker on the fire.
Rosenthal said the fire was holding at 600 acres before Wednesday night’s flare up.
A “short” (reduced staff) Type I incident management team from Colorado will arrive this afternoon and take over command Thursday, Rosenthal said. A Type I team is merited because of the fire’s complexity, she said—it’s threatening BPA and NorthWestern Energy power lines, a microwave tower site, a wooden railroad trestle, and a number of structures, plus its proximity to the highway.
The fire is under DNRC jurisdiction and it started about five miles east of Frenchtown Pond, said Lolo National Forest spokesman Boyd Hartwig.
It was reported about 2:15 in the afternoon Tuesday and was immediately responded to by aerial and ground resources from around the area, including engines and personnel from Frenchtown, Victor and Florence volunteer fire departments, Missoula Rural fire department, Lolo National Forest and DNRC. Three helicopters and one air tanker were also working the fire. Despite the effort, the fire continued to be erratic and active into the evening, Rosenthal said.
The cause of the fire is under investigation.
Fire officials are keeping an eye on the expected weather changes Thursday. The National Weather Service is forecasting a front passing over western Montana, which could bring severe thunderstorms.
We’ll update this story as we get more information. Check back at www.newwest.net/missoula.
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Comments
Regardless of how the fire started, this is yet another western Montana wildfire (Jocko Lakes and Chippy Creek being two others) that is burning extremely fast and hot through heavily logged and roaded lands owned and managed by Plum Creek Timber Company, as well as some heavily logged/roaded Lolo National Forest lands. The type of logging done on these lands only makes the forest hotter, drier and windier. Hopefully firefighters can get a handle on this one and protect homes in the Evaro area.
Fire will come to EVERY forest eventually, with or without man's involvement. You can count on it. So, careful fuel management and maintaining good access are key. Healthy forests will survive periiodic light burns pretty well.
Undetermined means undetermined. It does not mean 'might be human'.
My heart and prayers go out to the community.
There are dead trees throughout the canopy in that area. I've had many an opportunity to be in the trees in that area - and it was dry as tinder in early June.
The winter must sustain long periods of near 0 or below 0 temperatures to kill off beetle bugs - where you see the dead reddish brown trees, that is exactly the visual result of beetle-kill. Further - without cold winters to kill off the bugs, the only way to stop the spread is by logging that stuff out of there, otherwise it widespread kills until stopped by nature (cold.)
I was on top of the pass between Idaho and Montana, off of Lolo pass earlier this summer (late spring, actually) - and the bug kill on the Idaho side, as far as the eyes could see, was both amazing and heartbreaking.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/science/earth/14fire.html?ref=science
November 14, 2006
Studies Find Danger to Forests in Thinning Without Burning
By JIM ROBBINS
MISSOULA, Mont. - Thinning forests without also burning accumulated brush and deadwood may increase forest fire damage rather than reduce it, researchers at the Forest Service reported in two recent studies.
The findings cast doubt on how effective some of the thinning done under President Bush's Healthy Forests Initiative will be at preventing fires if the forests are not also burned.
The studies show that in forests that have been thinned but not treated with prescribed burning, tree mortality is much greater than in forests that have had thinning and burning and those that have been left alone. Another study, on Blacks Mountain Experimental Forest in Northern California, had similar findings.
The studies, combined with other recent research showing that climate change is reducing snowpack and making the fire season longer and more intense, have prompted researchers to urge the Forest Service to use prescribed fire more.
"We need fire on the ground," said Dr. Ronald H. Wakimoto, a professor of forestry at the University of Montana who studies fire. "The only thing that stops fires is previous fire or prescribed fire."
A study of a 500,000-acre wildfire in Oregon in 2002, called the Biscuit fire, showed that the mortality rate of trees in forests that had neither thinning nor prescribed burns was a little more than half. The study, published in late 2005 in The Canadian Journal of Forest Research, found that 80 to 100 percent of the trees in forests that had only been thinned died in the blaze, while 5 percent of the trees died in forests that had been thinned and burned.
A 2003 study of another large blaze, the Hayman fire in Colorado in 2002, published as a case study by the Forest Service, showed that fires killed 50 percent of the trees in a natural, unthinned forest but killed 90 percent in a thinned forest, because the fire on the ground was hotter. When thick stands of small trees are cleared and space is created between larger trees, it causes a mat of litter several inches thick, including pine needles, slash from thinning and other debris, to dry out. New growth of shrubs and grasses, stimulated by thinning, also adds to the fuel load. When a fire gets started, it burns hotter and moves faster than when it was slowed by thicker growth.
"The forest floor is hotter, drier and windier," Dr. Wakimoto said. "When we thin, we're not getting the shade, and the vegetation doesn't slow the winds."
He said thinning near urban areas was particularly worrisome. "If they don't treat the fuels on the ground, the fire will get to the homes faster," he said.
Thinning may create room to fight fires, he said, but it creates a false sense of security because serious fires can still happen.
Thinning is often done to prevent crown fires, which move through treetops, but unless crowns are 20 feet apart, which is usually not the case, surface fires can still create crown fires.
The most efficient way to decrease these fire risks is with prescribed fire, which can be difficult in areas with houses.
So-called activity fuels, the debris left by thinning, were a big part of the problem in the Biscuit fire. "Thinning needs to be done completely," said Crystal L. Raymond, a researcher at the College of Forest Resources at the University of Washington, "including activity fuels, which can be done with prescribed burning."
Forests around the West have adapted to frequent fires, which were set by lightning and for centuries by American Indians. But regular, minor fires have been thwarted because of increasing numbers of homes in grasslands and forests. When a fire does start, it feeds on accumulated fuel and is more damaging than smaller, recurring fires would have been.
Federal officials say they understand the role of prescribed burns but have not used them widely. "It's an issue of sequence," said Mark E. Rey, under secretary for natural resources and the environment at the Agriculture Department. "We'll follow the thinning with prescribed burns."
Thinning has been controversial, even when accompanied by prescribed burns, since the Healthy Forests Restoration Act was signed into law in 2003.
A 1996 federal study, the Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project, was conducted by a team led by Dr. Don C. Erman, emeritus professor of ecology at the University of California, Davis. Dr. Erman said thinning could be effective only if it was repeated as often as every two years, which would be prohibitively expensive.
"It's a treadmill you have to be on all the time," he said. Prescribed fire may extend the period between thinnings, he said, but not by much.
Prescribed fire can also be controversial, though for a different reason. A 2000 blaze in New Mexico called the Cerro Grande fire that started as a prescribed fire burned more than 40,000 acres and 400 houses near Los Alamos.
A report by the Office of the Inspector General at the Agriculture Department issued in March was critical of the Forest Service's management of the Healthy Forests Initiative, saying the program had no consistent analytical process to determine which areas were most at risk and did not set priorities for projects.
Mr. Rey said those things had been addressed. "They looked at early treatments," he said. "Many of the things the inspector general found are things we are aware of and that we've moved on to correct."
My prayers are with those effected by the fire. We are a tight community in Frenchtown. On a positive note: My heartfelt thanks to those young adults who drove around in their truck offering assistance loading / assisting families such as ours. Hats off to our Frenchtown High School Students! Pride in our community! Thank you!
Most everyone of the results says unknown or something similar.
"By Cathie, 8-16-07
The fire was started by lightening. Fact.
Undetermined means undetermined. It does not mean 'might be human'."
You cannot just make stuff up and call it a fact. When was the last time you remember lightning happening? I sure can't think of any recent.
By SHERRY DEVLIN of the Missoulian
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2007/08/17/fires/fire73.txt
Reviewing a variety of news articles (Trying to find updated information on the fire status) I have only found speculative information on the cause. If anyone has specific information - please post it here with the link to the site.
It was lightening.
http://www.newwest.net/index.php/topic/article/black_cat_fire_remains_active_friday/C329/L38/
Also, I have a friend very involved with the fire who confirmed it - lightning holdover. It's so sensational to speculate that it was arson and people love to jump to that conclusion for the shock value. But west of the Continental Divide, approximately 75-85 percent of fires are started by lightning.
Black Cat Fire may have been human-caused
Wednesday, October 17 2007
by John Q. Murray
Clark Fork Chronicle
Fire investigators are backing away from an initial assessment that the Black Cat Fire started at a specific scarred snag on the hillside above the Wye.
"A human-caused fire is possible," acknowledged an internal Department of Natural Resources and Conservation memo.
DNRC fire investigator Jamie Kirby said this week that she was updating her final report based on feedback from her colleagues.
Hearing that the Chronicle had received reports of persons near the origin at about the time of the fire, she encouraged residents with detailed, reliable information to contact her at 542-4321.
The DNRC still believes it has identified a single origin for the Black Cat Fire roughly halfway between Highway 93 North and Mill Creek, and still believes it is "probable" that the fire was caused by lightning.
But fire officials say they no longer believe the fire was a holdover from a lightning strike recorded in mid-July. They also no longer believe the particular small tree identified as the culprit was the tree struck by lightning.
"We did a little further examination and it wasn't a current lightning strike," explained Jim Costamagna, Fire Program Specialist with the DNRC. "It is an older scar. The tree is dried up and there weren't any fresh marks on that tree."
Though that particular tree was ruled out, the location of the origin and the lack of any evidence still strongly point toward lightning as the source of the Black Cat Fire.
"There was no evidence that it was human-caused," Costamagna said.
While no lightning strikes were documented closer to the August 12 start than the July 17-18 thunderstorm, that is not unusual, he said.
The lightning strike that ignited the fire may not have been recorded by monitors.
"We're not able to capture every lightning strike on our lightning maps," he explained. "Lighting doesn't strike straight down--it can come from a long ways away. The maps give us an idea of where to look, but they're not 100 percent conclusive."
At this point, Costamagna said, the lightning maps are more of an art than a science. "There's a certain amount of predictability. The science is good, but it's not perfect."
They have not yet positively identified a specific tree as the source of the fire. It is possible that the lightning struck the ground rather than a tree, he said.
"Sometimes it strikes the ground, so you may not find the strike," he said. "It hits and throws a spark out--you're not going to find that in the forest."
The internal DNRC memo states: "Southwestern Land Office has thoroughly reviewed the point of origin of the Black Cat Fire of August 12th, 2007. After extensive examination at the point of origin by the fire investigator, DNRC and other agency colleagues, we remain unconvinced that the lightning struck tree was indeed that, nor have we been able to determine that lightning was the definitive cause of this fire.
"While electronic mapping and scientific evidence of lightning does indicate a lightning strike in the area of origin of the Black Cat fire on July 17, in tracking the burn patterns of the area, it is the considered opinion of all of the involved personnel that without a doubt the correct point of origin for the Black Cat fire has been located.
"It is probable that the Black Cat Fire was caused by lightning. However, after thorough investigation, we have been unable to find the 'strike tree.' We have found trees that have had the tops blown out of them, but not the downward straight or spiral strike pattern from a typical lightning strike.
"Often times, lightning may strike the ground, without connecting with one of the living or dead 'antennas' out there, yet ending up with a lightning caused fire.
"Although access and fire prevention restrictions were in place at the time, a human caused fire is possible. While examining the site, and given the conditions at the time a 'holdover' fire is unlikely. The DNRC bases this hypothesis upon the fuel conditions that existed at the point of origin during the time period of July 17 through August 12 and the weather conditions during this time period.
"Historically, lightning 'holdover' fires occur in areas that are sheltered from the wind, during periods of lower fire danger than that which existed during the summer of 2007 and occur in areas of larger, less flashy fuels than those found at the point of origin. Our investigation continues though results at this time are inconclusive."