ELECTIONS 2006

The New - Blue? - West

By David Frey, 11-09-06

Who would have guessed the Senate’s balance of power would come down to a cliffhanger in a GOP stronghold like Montana? But there was Democrat Jon Tester squeezing past stalwart Conrad Burns and erasing Republicans’ lock on power.

In conservative Colorado, Democrat Bill Ritter grabbed the governor’s mansion, trouncing Rep. Bob Beauprez, a one-time sure bet, as Democrats added to their statehouse lead, too.

In Wyoming and New Mexico, Democratic governors easily glided back into office. And throughout the West, Democrats engaged in squeakers they didn’t always win, but they gave chase to Republicans in territory usually considered safely red.

Their growing strength comes as the party weighs Denver against New York for its 2008 convention. Western Democrats hope for a Mile-High fete, not just to highlight their muscle, but to focus attention on Western issues often overlooked.

Western Democrats clearly benefited from the anti-GOP tide that swept the country, but some observers believe they may have also been riding a wave of their own.

“I think really the West becomes a laboratory for Democrats to understand how to appeal to Independent voters and moderate Republicans,” says national Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh.

“What is exceptional is that Democrats in the West, like Montana and Colorado and other places, were able to win in places that have historically been Republican,” Marsh says. “So as Democrats look back on this election to learn lessons about how to expand opportunities for Democrats in 2008 and beyond, I think everyone needs to look to the West – in Montana and Colorado and other states – to see specifically what caused Democrats to prevail in the most Republican of places.”

Part of a trend?
To be sure, Western Democrats benefited from GOP frustrations that aided Democrats nationwide. Concerns about Iraq, corruption and scandal resonated in Nevada as much as New York. And, to some degree, all politics really is local. In Montana, Burns was tainted by his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, giving an edge to Tester, a pro-gun organic farmer. In Colorado, Beauprez’s lackluster campaign careened to the right while pro-life former Denver district attorney Ritter captured the middle ground.

“It probably is a mistake to read too much into this,” says Bob Brown, senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana. A Republican, Brown is a former Montana state Representative, Senator and secretary of state. He ran unsuccessfully for governor two years ago.

“People think it’s just time for a change,” Brown says. “I think this election, coupled with a tide that is rolling across the country, gives Democrats more strength across the Rocky Mountain West than they would have had otherwise. But I think it’s way too premature to say it’s a change of politics in the Intermountain West and 10 years from now it’s going to be way more blue than it is now.”

Republicans, too, claimed plenty of victories across the West. Idaho’s Bill Sali survived Democrat Larry Grant’s challenge for Congress. Rep. Jim Gibbons grabbed Nevada’s governor’s seat. Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch returned for a sixth term.

“I think it’s premature to draw the conclusion that we’re suddenly seeing a resurgence in prairie populism,” Brown says.

A Western Wave?
Across the hallway, Daniel Kemmis sees more at play. A former Missoula mayor and Democratic speaker of the Montana House, Kemmis, also a senior fellow at the Center, believes Democrats have been more in tune with changes sweeping the West. By capitalizing on issues like growth, they’ve won Independents and moderate Republicans. Meanwhile, concerns about the West’s energy boom and White House threats to public lands have prompted some Republican allies like ranchers and outfitters to break ranks.

“Democrats have been paying closer attention to some of the changes taking place in this region, and I think they have managed to present a program that voters believe is more promising in terms of being able to meet the challenges of change in the region,” Kemmis says.

Heading into the 2000 elections, the West was solidly in Republican hands. No Democratic governors. Three Democratic Senators. A handful of Democratic Congressmen. Most statehouses were solidly Republican.

“What’s happened since then is a fairly steady march across the region in a more Democratic direction, and (Tuesday’s) election is jut on more step along that trajectory,” Kemmis says.

The West’s Democratic Senators grew by two. Democratic occupy governor’s mansions in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona – a blue swath from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.

Red, Blue or Purple?
But more than red territory turning blue, maybe the West is just purple. Westerners pride themselves on an independent nature, and in many areas, moderate Democrats donned cowboy hats and boots to win over rural voters. Brian Schweitzer became Montana’s first Democratic governor. Sen. Ken Salazar took Colorado. His brother, Rep. John Salazar, handily won reelection Tuesday.

In Garfield County, Colo., where unaffiliated voters outnumber Democrats or Republicans, independent Gary Gagné found himself voting for Democrats. “We need somebody who will take a look at the natural gas industry and what they're doing to surface owners in western Colorado,” says Gagné, who joined an Election Day rally for Democrats in downtown Glenwood Springs.

“Clearly part of the reason that Democrats have won in some of these key races is because they’ve run candidates with a profile that seems to work in the West,” Kemmis says. “But it is also very clear that in the long run what’s going to matter is not image but substance, and I don’t know that the key question there is one of moderation. I think it’s much more a question of effective governing.”

Marsh, the Democratic strategist, agrees. Democrats’ success in the West may lie less in their pro-gun or pro-life views, their cowboy hats or their cowboy boots, than in their pragmatism. “They’re problem-solvers first and partisan second,” she says.

If Democrats hope to hold the West, and the rest of the country, they may need to do something Westerners know well: roll up their sleeves and get to work.

“I think the real test is going to be how well the Democrats govern,” Kemmis says. “If when they win office they’re able to govern in ways that do in fact meet the challenges facing the region, facing these communities, they will have earned the right to be reelected. They’re going to be held to that test.”

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