From the Panhandle

Biking the Big Apple Beats Biking in Downtown Sandpoint

I missed posting from the panhandle last week because I was far from it. I was off instead on a sojourn to a place that might be considered the antithesis of rural north Idaho—New York City.

There are a lot of things to like about New York, but a lack of crowds and traffic is not one of them. This being the case, I was amazed at how comfortable I felt riding a bike in Manhattan. Okay, maybe not comfortable—the temperature was in the 90s and the humidity was about 300%--but at least safe.

The original idea was to rent bikes and ride along one of the city’s waterfront bike paths. The path along the southwest corner of Manhattan is part of a collection of exceptionally complete streets. 

Messing Around With Worly

Health Care Reform: Red vs. Blue = We All Lose

I grew up getting the news from my father who interpreted Walter Cronkite broadcasts for the rest of the family. Dad would accept the details with which he agreed, reject those he didn’t, and that became inarguable fact around our home. For example; hippies were murdering drug addicts, draft dodgers were sub-human cowards, rock music was for San Francisco homosexuals and all Democrats were communists. Life was pretty cut and dried at my house in 1960s Eastern Idaho.

I offer this background because it’s 2010, we have sweeping change in our nation with the Health Care Reform Bill that was just passed, and I have absolutely no idea what the hell that even means. There are too many slanted sources of information to wade through. I know what my Dad would say, “Obama? He’s a goddamn communist and I wouldn’t believe a word the bastard says.”

Sorry Dad, at this point in my life that kind of wisdom really doesn’t help me get to the bottom of one of the largest and gooiest pieces of legislation ever signed into law. 

The Idaho Group Blog

Economic Double Bubble, Toil and Trouble

With slow but steady improvement in the economy’s vital signs, two questions are gnawing at analysts’ brain pans.  First, is this a sustainable recovery with the power to fuel substantial job growth?  Second, what will happen when the “double bubble” ruptures and some $1.7 trillion in commercial real estate notes come due over the next few years?

Most economic prognosticators portend a sluggish recovery with continued job losses throughout 2010.  New job growth will be slow, they say.  Too many businesses are changing fast or forever gone, like GM’s Saturn Division.  We can’t expect the same jobs to reappear and be filled by the same folks who were laid off.  Plus, globalization and the Internet have changed the game.  Look for new jobs to develop in health care, education, government and within new or fast-changing industries.

As for the double bubble effect, commercial real estate values are down about 35 percent since the peak in 2007, according to Moody’s.  Unlike residential mortgages, commercial loans are much shorter term—usually five to 10 years.  The first $300 billion in commercial-backed securities will come due in 2010.  Obviously, many businesses are on their knees due to the slowdown.  So there is a shortage of cash to payoff real estate loans, especially where property values have fallen far below contract values, which would cause buyers to bring even more cash to the closing table to accomplish a refinancing.  Meantime, lenders have locked down their underwriting guidelines and all but stopped making commercial loans, despite claims that they are open for business.

The Idaho Group Blog

Weekend Essay: The Global Warming Debate

The radio news squawk lately has been about Global Warming, the latest in an endless supply of silly partisan battles.  As I hear one team arguing that a new Senate bill will create jobs and save the planet, I hear the other team telling us that same Senate bill will increase our taxes and crush the economy. Since we all side with the home team, it’s no wonder polls asking us – Global Warming, True or False? – are becoming red and blue in color.  And just like NFL football, I’m tired of the commercials…let’s get to the game!

We’re arguing a pointless debate.

Both sides are wrong because the very premise of the debate is flawed.

It’s not about “if” global warming is real or “who” is to blame.  How can anyone “know” that our planet is warming, let alone “know” humans are the cause of the warming?  To think that we understand how this living system we call earth operates is nothing but over-inflated human ego.  The fact is we don’t know what’s going to happen.  Every time we think we know what’s going on in nature, we get proven wrong.  Let’s stop the debate and get to the real problems.

This is my breakdown for all the proud-to-guzzle-gas-rednecks and all the entitled-Prius-latte-drinking-hippies….we’re going to have too many people on the planet soon and too few resources to keep our current economic system moving.