Fireworks and Population Stats

Pioneer Days and the Decline of a Utah Majority

By Amy Seigel, 7-25-05

The idea of a state holiday being celebrated with more of a bang (literally) than the 4th of July is something entirely new to me as a relative newcomer to this state of tall mountains, beautiful red rock, and Mormon Pioneer Days. It is a strange thing to feel like the national day of independence is a mere precursor—a warm-up show of measly fireworks displays and dutiful fanfare—to the real celebration only 20 days away. All it takes is one glance at the official website of Pioneer Days, to realize that, for a majority of Utahans, this is the real celebration.

Amidst the fireworks, horse parades and assorted pioneer activities it’s hard to imagine that Utah’s Mormon population is in any danger of losing its majority status. However, according to an article in Sunday’s Salt Lake Tribune, the Church’s own tallies over the past 15 years indicate that the LDS segment of Utah’s population is slowly getting smaller. These usually top-secret membership statistics suggest that although the Mormon religion is expanding its worldwide following, local numbers are clearly waning. This slight increase in diversity is largely attributable to the state’s economic growth—more jobs bring more people of all races and religions—and dropping fertility rates—the average Utah woman is giving birth to 1.7 fewer children today than in the 1960s.

While such diversification should clearly be viewed as good thing, one has to wonder whether the influx of non-Mormons will significantly alter Utah’s political or social climate. As the most Republican state in the union, Utah is most attractive to those who already share the views, if not the faith, of its religious majority. In other words, it’s safe to bet that Utah will stay “red� for many years to come.

And while the Tribune reports that LDS members will no longer constitute a majority by the year 2030, one look at the preparations for today’s festivities should assure everyone that Mormon heritage is fully enmeshed with the state’s history and that the LDS influence on Utah culture and politics is in no danger of fading.

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