My Page: Pete Talbot

Rehberg v. Baucus?

If you haven’t recovered from the 2006 midterm election: too bad. The 2008 election is already creating a buzz.

We’ll leave the presidential contest to the national prognosticators. Here’s what Montana political consultants, bloggers and gadflies are saying about our 2008 statewide election.

There are two schools of thought. One is that Montana Republicans are finished, for a while. Where will they find a sacrificial lamb to go against popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer in ’08? And can any Republican beat four-term Democratic Senator Max Baucus?

Then there are the pundits who say we’re still a red state. [more]

Commentary

I almost feel sorry for Sen. Conrad Burns. Almost. It’s the morning after the election and I’m sitting next to him at the coffee shop in the Billings Hotel and Convention Center, site of the Montana Republican Party’s election night extravaganza. Burns is playing with his granddaughter and fielding phone calls. He’s not morose but you can tell, in his heart he knows he lost.

I almost feel sorry for his staff. Again, almost. They’re taking it a lot harder than Burns. I’ve worked campaigns and a loss can be crushing. These folks worked hard for their candidate and came close – oh so close.

But here’s the real story. It’s a few hours earlier, around 4 a.m. I’m at the 4B’s Restaurant, corner of Grand and 24th. I’m eating a chicken fried steak with lots of gravy. Patrick, the guy behind the grill, recommended it. Suki, my server, is holding court. She wants to know about Patrick’s club-boxing bout Thursday night, downtown. [more]

On the Ground: Elections

BILLINGS - Sen. Conrad Burns hasn’t spoken yet, but the crowd is already thinning at the Republican election-night party in Billings. It looks like Burns could be done. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) keeps his seat, as predicted.

And maybe Burns’ Democratic challenger, Jon Tester, is going to change the face of the U.S. Senate. We may not know until early Wednesday.

Folks are passive here, like maybe they expected these numbers. Here in Yellowstone County, the swing county in Montana, the latest tally (40% reporting) is Tester with 51% to Burns 47%.

They hate Missoula at this Republican soiree but it wasn’t just Missoula County that voted for Tester, some of the other it big counties in the state – Cascade, Lewis and Clark, and Silver Bow – voted for him.

Former Governor Judy Martz just said it isn’t over. [more]

Election NIGHT

BILLINGS -- Initial Montana election results should be in shortly after the polls close at 8 p.m. These will be the absentee ballots that election departments around the state started counting at midnight last night.

County elections officials say the first numbers from today's voters will be in around 9:15 p.m. Statewide results should follow closely thereafter. Then another batch will be released at 10 p.m. to placate local news producers. Governor Schweitzer predicts Montanans will know who the winners are by 10 p.m. However, spokesmen for Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and challenger Jon Tester (D) campaigns, Jason Klindt and Aaron Murphy, respectively, are predicting a late night.

Turnout here in Billings has been heavy. Yellowstone County election administrator Duane Winslow says his office has been "very, very busy."

"More people than the last presidential election," he added.

For recent results on the Tester/Burns race, click here. [more]

Senate Race

Jon Tester will need some magic in the Magic City to win Montana’s U.S. Senate race. As Montana’s political pundits say: as goes Billings, so goes the state.

Billings is sending a mixed message. Both the Billings Gazette and Outpost endorsed Democrat candidate Tester over Republican Senator Conrad Burns. Yet a very unscientific poll conducted on the Gazette’s web page had, at last count, 51,350 (64%) for Burns, 23,469 (29%) for Tester and Libertarian Stan Jones with 5027 (6%). And while this might not reflect real voter preference, it could reflect who has the better quick-response political machine. Having the president come and stump for the incumbent five-days-out from the election, in Montana’s largest city, doesn’t hurt the Burns campaign either.

Another unscientific indicator is the yard sign war. Driving around Billings, Burns definitely has the edge but not by that much. (Driving around Missoula’s urban core last week, it was hard to imagine that Tester even had an opponent, there was such a dearth of Burns signs.) What are the voters in Billings saying? It's all over the map. [more]

Column By Pete Talbot

Missed the Lindeen/Rehberg debate last Friday night in Poplar (pop. 881)? You're not alone. No major media outlet covered it.

That's the way under-the-radar Rehberg likes it. Because at two weeks out, the race for Montana's sole U.S. House seat has the potential to heat up. Blame it on other Congressmen's missteps but many once-secure Republican incumbents are starting to get nervous.

The Monica Lindeen (D) and Dennis Rehberg (R) contest pits a grassroots candidate against an incumbent going for his fourth term. The polls have Rep. Rehberg ahead 20 points, so Rehberg's strategy of staying out of the limelight seems to be working. [more]

Peace In, Not Out

For 18 years, a peace sign looked down on the city from Waterworks Hill. Actually, it was a 30-foot by 30-foot microwave reflector. But late one night in May 1983, four men and two women from the NSLF (North Side Liberation Front) scaled the structure and painted the ubiquitous peace sign.

It has been up and down (literally) since then but most recently, it came down for good when Qwest bought the spot. But now there’s talk of a new peace sign. But what will it be made of and where will it go?

The Jeanette Rankin Peace Center has formed a committee that is circulating a petition to gain public input and brainstorming the best form for the new sign to take. So far, 118 people have signed the petition including Missoula’s mayor John Engen.

“The goal is to have a permanent, visible sign of peace in whatever form it may take,” said Betsy Mulligan-Dague the center's director, “and to honor the old sign.” [more]

Guest Column

Annie Cathey is 37-years-old and has worked for the Motor Vehicles Department in the Missoula County Treasurer’s office for seven years. She makes $12.22 an hour.

“It’s a slap in the face, “ she says of the anti-union ads that were launched this week in Montana. The TV, radio and newspaper campaign portrays department workers as overpaid, lazy and nasty. Annie wants to know who’s behind the ads and “if they’ve ever stepped foot in our office.”

Montana isn’t the only targeted state. The advertising campaign is also running in Oregon, Nevada, and Michigan. Three of these four states have initiatives on the November ballot that cap state spending. The fourth state, Michigan, is in the process of certifying signatures for a similar ballot initiative. [more]

Western Montana Fair

Anybody wanting to relocate to the Missoula area should be required to go to the Western Montana Fair. It should be a law.

The fair represents that slice-of-life that defines a region. If you’ve ever been to a county fair, anywhere, you know what I’m talking about.

Take the family. Go to the rodeo, ride the rides and see the arts, crafts and vegetables.

There are plenty of animals too: pigs and rabbits and cows. You can watch a 4-H kid, with obvious pride, brush out his ewe. [more]

GUEST COMMENTARY

Sex, love, marriage and civil rights: this was the debate in a committee at the Democratic Party’s platform convention last weekend.

And while it wasn’t the only issue discussed, it was indicative of how a political party crafts its message.

The background on this debate is as follows: An amendment to Montana’s Constitution making it illegal for same-sex partners to marry was passed in 2004 by 66 percent of the voters. At the convention, a resolution was proposed to try to overturn this constitutional amendment.

The debate was heated. [more]