Senate Race
Billings Sending Mixed Messages on Burns - Tester Race
By Pete Talbot, 11-06-06
Jon Tester will need some magic in the Magic City to win Montana’s U.S. Senate race. As Montana’s political pundits say: as goes Billings, so goes the state.Billings is sending a mixed message. Both the Billings Gazette and Outpost endorsed Democrat candidate Tester over Republican Senator Conrad Burns. Yet a very unscientific poll conducted on the Gazette’s web page had, at last count, 51,350 (64%) for Burns, 23,469 (29%) for Tester and Libertarian Stan Jones with 5027 (6%). And while this might not reflect real voter preference, it could reflect who has the better quick-response political machine.
Having the president come and stump for the incumbent five-days-out from the election, in Montana’s largest city, doesn’t hurt the Burns campaign either.
Another unscientific indicator is the yard sign war. Driving around Billings, Burns definitely has the edge but not by that much. (Driving around Missoula’s urban core last week, it was hard to imagine that Tester even had an opponent, there was such a dearth of Burns signs.)
What are the voters in Billings saying?
One Burns supporter said of his candidate, “Conrad won’t mess with my guns.”
There’s no evidence that Tester would mess with this guy’s guns either, but if that’s the perception in Yellowstone County, Tester could lose some votes.
“Burns has some problems,” said another Burns supporter, “but I know where he stands.” This person didn’t know enough about Tester to consider voting for him, he added.
A Tester supporter, who happens to work for the fire department, said everyone she works with is voting for Tester. Burns’ berating of firefighters at the Billings airport this summer probably didn’t help the Senator’s support with the public safety crowd.
My Republican brother-in-law said he’s voting for Tester. “Conrad’s an embarrassment,” he added.
So opinions are all over the map and it’s anybody’s guess who will take Yellowstone County.
I’ll be in Billings on election day and at Burns’ election night soiree at the Billings Motel and Convention Center. I’ll keep you posted.
[End of article]
You've got to be kidding me? Are you quoting the Billings Gazette poll? If you believe 75K+ actual Montana voters used the poll, I've got a bridge to sell you.
Comment By pete talbot, 11-06-06Jay,
What I was trying to illustrate -- not that successfully, obviously -- is that the Burns machine somehow got a bunch of votes for this "poll." If this same machine can get its core voters, plus independents and swing voters to go to the polls, then Burns could take Yellowstone County. Win Yellowstone County and you're more than halfway there.
Pete
I watched that web poll myself and it was manipulated. After only a couple days Burns had 20k while tester was at 5k. I believe some rightwing blog posted a link to it or someone was able to cheat the cookie that prevented a person from voting multiple times. I have a vision of some Burns loyalist voting on that web poll for hours on end. Considering the on-line comments to the Gazette stories the numbers just weren't credible. Still I doubt any Democrats will boycott the Gazette because of an unfavorable poll.
Comment By californiamontanacan, 11-07-06I don't know that you will get too many Burns folks reading New West, much less answering your question. Yes, yes yes, some. But not many when compared.
In that spirit, I think the Independent should be a flip flop format... Libs on one side, Cons on the other.
-Californiamontanacan