DOE Sees Boom in Green Energy

By Richard Martin, 12-15-06

For the last three decades the primary fact of the renewable energy business has been that reality, unfortunately, never lived up to predictions. That may soon change, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

In its 2007 "Annual Energy Outlook," the DOE's Energy Information Administration, the primary source of government data and forecasts on energy production and use in this country, says that consumption of green fuels by 2012 in the United States will "far exceed" the goal of 7.5 billion gallons set by Congress. Ethanol use alone will grow from 4 billion gallons in 2005 to 11.2 billion gallons in 2012, reaching 14.6 billion gallons in 2030 -- 8 percent of projected total gasoline consumption by volume. Along with more burning of biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), the EIA also predicts growth in nuclear power generation, expansion of coal-to-liquids technologies, rising demand for environmentally benign transportation technologies, and higher energy efficiency.

The bad news? Despite all these trends, barring dramatic change in laws and regulations, oil, coal and natural gas are still predicted to provide about 86 percent of total U.S. energy consumption in 2030 -- the same fraction as in 2005. And carbon emissions from those fossil fuels will continue to grow at about 1.2 percent a year.

In other energy news:

-- A long-awaited milestone in solar-energy technology has finally been reached: Using "multi-junction cells," which generate more power by capturing more of the solar spectrum, scientists at Boeing-Spectrolab, working with funding from the DOE, have finally reached a conversion efficiency of better than 40 percent. The commercialization of the cells could lower the price of solar energy to a level competitive with conventional production methods, according to experts. Most current solar panels have efficiencies in the 12 percent to 18 percent range.

-- The Intermountain Rural Electric Association, which has made no secret of its opposition to renewable forms of energy, has grudgingly agreed to allow its members to buy renewable-energy credits. While the IREA, whose directors earlier this year voted to give $100,000 to a Virginia scientist who claims that global warming is not caused by emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, will not shift its own production away from coal-burning power plants, members will be able to pay an extra $5 monthly to support the production of wind and solar energy by other utilities.

-- Aiming to make Denver the "balanced-energy capital of the West," the Colorado Energy Coalition is launching a marketing campaign to portray the Centennial State as the nation's R&D and business nexus for renewable energy development and energy conservation. Formed by the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp., the CEC is expected to take a leading role in the renewable-energy efforts promised by Gov.-elect Bill Ritter. [End of article]