Guessing at Idaho’s Economy

By Sharon Fisher, 1-04-07

What is arguably the most important part of the state budget setting process started today with the first meeting of the 2007 legislative session's Economic Outlook & Revenue Assessment Committee. While it's not nearly so well known as the Joint Finance Appropriations Committee -- with which it shares a room, a structure, several members, and a number of presenters -- it's the work done by this committee that enables JFAC to do its job. After all, they can't spend the money til they know how much there's going to be, can they?

But it's a challenge. Due to the way that Idaho structures its fiscal year -- July to July -- the committee is estimating what the economy will be from six to 18 months from now. And the various presenters all have their own perspectives -- and their own axes to grind. Plus, the committee gets to find out how well it did a year ago when it went through the same process.

Members of the committee are some of the creme de la creme of Idaho's legislature, and a number have been on the committee for at least half a dozen years. Like JFAC, it includes both senators and representatives. Co-chairs are Senator John Goedde and Representative Scott Bedke; also on the committee are Senators Brad Little, Brent Hill, Robert Geddes, Shawn Keough, and Mike Burkett (the lone Democratic Senator, who did not attend today) and Representatives Mike Moyle, Dennis Lake, Ken Roberts, Bert Brackett, and Democrat Nicole LeFavour, who also holds the honor -- by virtue of having the highest estimate -- of having the projection closest to the actual revenue, two years in a row.

(Yes, Goedde, Bedke, and Geddes are all on this committee. Listen carefully.)

Starting today at noon, and extending through Friday, the committee examines data compiled by the legislative budget staff and presentations from a variety of Idaho industries to make its projection. Today the committee heard from an economist from Wells Fargo, the Department of Commerce and Labor, the real estate and construction market, tourism, and agriculture; tomorrow the group hears from Micron, foresters, the medical industry, retailers, investors, and tax experts. (See the schedule, and note that you can listen to a live streaming Webcast.)

The members of the committee will submit their estimates on Monday, just before Governor Butch Otter gives his State of the State address, which will provide his projection. (Incidentally, the Governor's projection -- by being the most conservative -- has been the most far off for the past two years.) Next Thursday, the committee will meet again to create a report that it will submit to JFAC on January 16th, and JFAC will then vote on what the final projection will be. [End of article]