WARREN'S WORLD
Winter Snow Forecast According to Al Gore
By Guest Writer, 12-05-07
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If you are to believe Nobel Prize winner Al Gore, who also received an Academy Award for his documentary about global warming, everyone should immediately sell any ski or snowboard equipment they own and give up their futile search for powder.
To that scenario I say, “Forget it, Al!” All weather is unusual and the snow will show up and everyone will forget all of the doom and gloom of last winter.
How about this Sun Valley, Idaho, snowstorm?
The day before New Years in 1947 the rain pounded down on the roof of our small trailer and woke me up in the parking lot of Sun Valley. It was so warm that it rained all the way up to 8,000 feet at the Round House. When it cleared up it stayed below zero for the next 28 days and there wasn’t a cloud in the sky. It got way down to 39 below zero for two of those days. If that happened this winter, Al Gore would say, “That warm storm was because of too many emissions from automobiles.” I don’t think so. We did, however, have to ride down on the Exhibition and River Run ski lift for almost a month because offset edges had not yet been invented. Snow conditions are what fell out of the sky and skiing was the way it was…
After many years of traveling the world, everywhere I’ve filmed the weather was always unusual. Do I think the unusual weather conditions during the last decade are based solely on internal combustion engines?
A resounding, “No!”
When Greenland was first visited many years before Columbus accidentally drifted into the Caribbean, Greenland had already been inhabited, farmed and named Greenland because it was totally green. Otherwise they would have named it Iceland. There are dozens of things besides internal combustion engines that affect the weather. For example: In about 1940 an American oceanographer discovered how to predict European weather as long as six months in advance. He was even able to predict what the weather would be like for the invasion of France during World War II.
His theory: The weather in Europe during the winter is greatly controlled by the temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico the summer before. The warm water flows out of the gulf and becomes the Gulf stream where it goes north, finally curving east and collides with cold artic air. How warm it is radiates and causes the atmosphere to warm up according to the temperature differential. This raises or lowers the snow level when the storms swing south and begin to hit the ski resorts of Europe.
If my hypothesis is correct, the same thing can be said for West Coast winter weather. It is dependent on how warm the Sea of Japan gets during the summer before. If it was above average the snow level will rise because the Japanese current that goes north and is diverted by the Aleutian Islands to go south and controls West Coast weather.
Last summer was one of the coldest on record because the Japanese current was unusually cold. (This Japanese current theory is one of my own and subject to more investigation.)
On Oct. 23, 2007, I talked with Mike Wiegle in Blue River, British Columbia, and he already had nine feet of snow up where he lands his helicopters so that you can ski down.
Arapahoe Basin, Colo., had the earliest opening in its history. It was very crowded on opening day in early October so a lot of people were able to make turns and wreck their skis and snowboards on 10 inches of snow with occasional 11-inch rocks.
There are many other factors besides Al Gore that affect the overall temperature of our planet. Of great significance are solar flares and cosmic radiation. One solar flare explosion can be the equivalent of several dozen atomic bomb blasts. When the radiation collides with the earth’s atmosphere, it causes more clouds to form and they lower the overall temperature.
So put all of this information together and chances are you will be making your winter reservations at the same time based on when we had them last year. Scientific evidence relating to potential snow conditions is completely irrelevant to your winter vacation plans.
So get out in the garage and tune up whatever you will be riding on this winter, get your body in shape and try not to get freaked out by Nobel Prize-winner Al Gore. Even though he did invent e-mail and the science of global warming in the office of his air-conditioned, 22-room home, that is fortunately a very long way from any ski resort. Or, at least, it’s a short flight in his private jet.
For more stories and stuff from Warren visit warrenmiller.net
As a suggestion, when a column appears in more than one publication and at different times, I would appreciate New West alerting its readers to that fact when they present it.
Turning a negative into a positive, how about skiers creating a "captive carbon offset" company that would invest in snow making equipment? This purchase of indulgence for their pastime seems similar to what Gore is doing buying offsets from his own company.
I'm sorry to see Warren Miller stooping to smear... the interesting "patterns' he described are likely quite accurate, especially the impact ocean currents have on local "weather"... and by observing those relationships you can predict what weather is in the immediate 2 years... "climate" is a whole new discussion. In fact, if the worst case scenario plays out (and it may not, we can hope!), then those very ocean currents will be the major cause of the change. Already we are seeing cold water convection influences on the Gulf Stream, just look at the increasing loss of coral reefs!!! Saline water is getting more fresh and water levels are rising in the oceans -How about the sloughing of the Gulf of Mexico shorelines? - if the natural currents in the ocean begin to change you're gonna have a corresponding change in the weather in a lot of places... the models show that that event is very likely, albeit maybe not imminent in our lifetime...my point is, be careful sir, Al Gore is just the messenger, there are many knowledgable people who contributed to his movie who also see the writing on the wall... Mr. Miller, you didn't do yourself any favors writing this... perhaps you're envious that Al Gore's movie has more viewers and makes more money than yours... or perhaps you're simply in denial and will remain there until it's too late.
Comment By Jay J, 12-05-07Warren - I'm sorry to hear that even YOU are harping on the old BS about the Medievil Warming Period and how this proves NO Global Warming by Human activity. Yes, there was a natural warming period - there have been colder periods caused by volcanic eruptions, BUT the present situation IS caused by increased human activity, due to industrialization, over population, uncontrolled developing 3rd. world nations and MORE! Even IF this is a natural warming period - it effects of humans will INCREASE the severity of ALL the side effects!
Comment By Brad, 12-05-07Warren, thanks for the injection of sanity...with these "experts," to disagree is to "smear," end of argument! Who would dare oppose anyone as brilliant as...er, the politician guy?
Comment By Jay J, 12-05-07No - this is NOT the END of Arguement. To disagree is not to smear, but to bring up hack evidence (against real scientifically provable evidence) or to personally attack someone's home (Warren YOUR home in the exclusive ski resort is so far from GREEN it is ridiculous - plus those sponsor's vehicles in your films) is to SMEAR!!
If you don't LIKE the results of a Scientific study - that is your right- it doesn't make the science wrong.
This is a silly article--Warren Miller taking personal shots at Al Gore. Climate change is not about Al Gore, it's about the science, which Warren doesn't appear to know much about. His personal weather anecdotes about storms in Sun Valley are meaningless. It's about longterm climate, not weather. Weather will always throw us unusual events, but climate shows trends. I'm open to hearing the theories of climate change skeptics, but this is pretty lame.
Comment By Craig Moore, 12-05-07Jay, you are right. The beat goes on. Here is some of the latest science: http://www.usc.edu/uscnews/stories/14288.html
>>>>>>>
Clues to End of the Last Ice Age
09/27/07
USC College researcher shows that deep-sea temperatures rose 1,300 years before the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, ruling out CO2 as driver of the last ice age’s meltdown.
by Terah U. DeJong
Photo/Dietmar QuistorfIn contrast to what is often inferred from the geologic record, carbon dioxide did not cause the end of the last ice age, a new USC study published in Science suggests.
“There has been this continual reference to the correspondence between CO2 and climate change as reflected in ice core records as justification for the role of CO2 in climate change,” said paleoclimatologist Lowell Stott, the study’s lead author and a professor of earth sciences at USC College.
“You can no longer argue that CO2 alone caused the end of the ice ages.”
Deep-sea temperatures warmed about 1,300 years before the tropical surface ocean and well before the rise in atmospheric CO2, the study found. The finding suggests the rise in greenhouse gas was likely a result of warming – but not its main cause.
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Causation is tricky at best. Claims to knowing that man-made CO2 is the CAUSE just doesn't jive with the warming momentum already underway since the last Ice Age. Is it a factor? Of course. If man-made CO2 were eliminated would the world be in a state of stasis without climate change? Of course not.
NewWest...Seriously? This is what you got for your "SnowBlog". Wow...before Warren goes bashing Gore, you should see his pad up at the Yellowstone Club..who is calling who rich here? Jesus...Thanks for the effort, but I'll read else where...
Comment By Brad, 12-06-07Warren earned his!
Comment By Joel Sanda, 12-06-07I wonder if Mr. Miller knows his citation "The warm water flows out of the gulf and becomes the Gulf stream where it goes north, finally curving east and collides with cold artic air" is the basis for climate change theory - still? As for one's ability to "predict European weather as long as six months in advance" the invasion of Normandy had to be postponed a day because of ... bad weather that wasn't what was predicted.
Comment By Greg Mon, 12-06-07Warren, you're an idiot who needs to get his facts straight. For example, A-BAsin opened in early October this year on entirely man-made snow! One run at that, of water sprayed into the air on a couple of cold nights. Furthermore, nobody is making the argument that changes in the weather are due soley to the use of internal combustion engines. The facts however, clearly state that man-made emissions have increased greatly over the last few decades, potentially exacerbating a natural warming cycle to the point where serious changes in weather and climate may occur.
Do your comments have anything to do with the fact that the film company bearing your name is sponsered by Jeep?
Stick to ski movies Warren. You're not a scientist.
It is a sad day when the guru of outdoor filmmaking takes pot-shots at a man who has risked a little of something to bring to the forefront hard scientific (backed-up, not less) facts about the immediacy of our environmental situation. Warren, what have you risked up at the Yellow Stone Club?...I doubt you will lose your sponsers if global warming gets us all...then again, maybe you will-I think you, Mr. Miller have entirely missed the point!
Comment By Brad, 12-06-07As Dr. Gray say's, "the argument hasen't even begun." Gore's "risk," other than being mistaken for a human," is getting on/off his jet, eating too much, over-sleeping...
Comment By Craig Moore, 12-06-07Nicole, regarding the scientific facts that you refer to a UK court seems to think iGore's film is propaganda, not science. See: http://www.newparty.co.uk/articles/inaccuracies-gore.html
>>>>>>>>>>
Inaccuracies in Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth
The decision by the government to distribute Al Gore's film An Inconvenient Truth has been the subject of a legal action by New Party member Stewart Dimmock. The Court found that the film was misleading in nine respects and that the Guidance Notes drafted by the Education Secretary’s advisors served only to exacerbate the political propaganda in the film.
In order for the film to be shown, the Government must first amend their Guidance Notes to Teachers to make clear that 1.) The Film is a political work and promotes only one side of the argument. 2.) If teachers present the Film without making this plain they may be in breach of section 406 of the Education Act 1996 and guilty of political indoctrination. 3.) Nine inaccuracies have to be specifically drawn to the attention of school children.
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Gore's position is closely aligned with the vast majority of climate specialists and scientists on this issue. However, there are some of merit like Dr. Gray at CSU who strongly disagree. Warren Miller fails to add meaningfully to the debate. Sadly, he seems to believe his lying eyes. That and his smart ass personal attacks fail to accomplish anything but adding more bulldung to the heap that, if not adding to global warming, still stinks. This kind of public debate leaves me swatting at flies and hoping for a good high country snow to smother the noise. Outlive the bastards indeed.
Comment By Tim Sharp, 12-06-07I have enjoyed some of humor in Mr. Millers ski films and books, and enjoyed an interview he did with our local public radio station, this article however reeks of obfuscation. Shooting the messenger is an old tactic that may make the writer feel good, smart and important, but Mr. Miller will not be around to see the effect of inaction on this very important issue. The science is conclusive, though some points are still not fully understood. Forward thinking is called for based on the knowledge we now have, and inaction is folly.
Getting this society to start thinking about how we can use energy more efficiently is as hard as pushing Warrens` Jeep out of a very deep snow bank he is driving us into. Mr. Miller please help push or get out of the way!
this is sad.
Comment By Pete, 12-10-07Stick to making sweet films and avoid the thinly (or not so thinly) veiled political cracks.
Why are you and so many conservatives obviously worried about those who raise awareness regarding lowering our emissions and harmful effects on the environment? Why are you scared? What intimidates you so badly about this that you have to cut down a man trying to spread the good word of green and conservation?
I'm officially never buying - let alone watching - any of your movies ever again. This is disgusting, disturbing and pretty low if you ask me. You should be embarrassed with yourself. Thanks for showing your true colors
Pretty lame, Warren.
Come with some real scientific facts, not your stories of anomalies through your short lifetime.
-> http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17853
-> http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
Certainly, those of us who live in the Arctic have different stories of anomalies in our short lifetimes.
Warren your movies started getting bad about ten years ago, and now your inteligence has gone with it. You probably wrote this article while doing voice overs for a new Warren Miller film that will be about two minutes of actual Warren Miller footage, and the rest filled with stuff from real ski film companies like Poorboyz, but, oh wait, you dont even do your voiceovers. Its just old quotes that are taken from past movies, and a terrible "guest narrator" that tries to tie your random quotes and random action together. Well now I'm just ranting. My main point is that your whole greenland thing at the start wasn't true at all. Iceland was settled first and they called it iceland because that did not want people inhabiting such lush GREEN land, then they created Greenland, a realy icy island that is several times bigger than iceland, so people would migrate there believeing it was green. If you took this much time researching a simple fact, I assume you spent that much time researching your argument. Warren start following your peers like Greg Stump and realize when its over its over. If you leave the game, you will allow people to buy Matchstick, Rage, Plehouse, Poorboyz, Level 1, and other good ski film company DVDs, for half the price they would spend on one ticket to your movies.
This article was printed from www.newwest.net at the following URL: http://www.newwest.net/snow_blog/article/winter_snow_forecast_according_to_al_gore/C458/L41/