A DECENT RECORD, BUT NOT EXACTLY A VISIONARY

Did My 2007 Predictions Come True?

By Bill Schneider, 12-27-07

It seems to me that predicting the news is a little like predicting the weather. You can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job. I hope the same is true for me.

Last December, I made some bold predictions on what outdoor news you might hear in 2007 and promised to report on if they came true. Here’s my report.

Prediction: Brother Wolf will still be the Top Dog in 2007 and continue as the top outdoor story. In fact, the multi-headed controversy growing out of the 1996 restoration project will become so pervasive in the news that even wolf fans might get tired of it and go back to reading the comics.
Report: The wolf continued as a big story, if not the biggest, but as the year progressed, it sometimes slipped off the front page. And I’d say people are getting weary of hearing about how evil the wolf is.

Prediction: And I’ll really go out on a limb and predict that the wolf population will continue to grow in 2007. Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne will push hard for delisting. Idaho and Wyoming will propose aggressive reductions in wolf numbers. EarthJustice will sue both states and the feds over delisting and control plans. And at the end of year nothing will have happened except that we’ll have more wolves.
Report: Pretty close. Enviros are a little slow on filing the lawsuits, but the rest was spot on.

Prediction: Federal wildlife officials will forge forward with plans to officially delist the Yellowstone grizzly population. EarthJustice will drag this victory akin to the whooping crane and bald eagle and use it as an example of why we need the Endangered Species Act.
Report: True.

But the Big Bear won’t be nearly as controversial as the Big Dog.
Report: True.

Over at the Forest Service, the entire Recreation Site Facility Master Planning process (RSFMP) will reach the level of controversy it deserves. Then, it will either implode from pressure from the new Blue Green Congress or, I fear, succeed as planned. I see the RSFMP as a planned “negotiation” between the Bush Administration and us, the people who use and value public land. Faced with the threat of thousands of campgrounds and picnic areas closing or being privatized, we’ll be happy if it turns out to be hundreds instead of thousands, which has probably been the real plan all along. I call this the Gas Pump Dynamic. Prices go from $1.50 to $3.00 and then go down to $2.25 and we’re happy because gas prices went down, right? Oil companies get exactly what they wanted all along, and we accept it.
Report: Not quite true. Yes, regrettably, hundreds of campgrounds did close or were privatized. The process of minimizing and privatizing outdoor recreation on public lands became as controversial as predicted, but the result was better than predicted. Senators Max Baucus (D-MT) and Mike Crapo (R-ID) introduced a bill to repeal the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act of 2004, the law that makes all this insanity possible.

Prediction: Also following the Gas Pump Dynamic, we’ll continue to accept the new and ever-increasing recreational fees to park, camp, picnic, hike, bike, climb, fish, hunt or even drive through our public lands because that’s how we are. Certain members of Congress will complain about recreational fees, but they will not make it a priority that results in a reversal of our current downward spiral towards commercialization of our public lands.
Report: Half true. Fees continued to increase and proliferate, but I am delighted to be wrong about Congress not noticing and making it a priority. Witness the Baucus-Crapo bill.

Prediction: Even in the aftermath of the Great Elk Escape, the Idaho Legislature won’t do anything meaningful to control the spread of game farms and move closer to becoming another Texas. Frustrated elk hunters will start the process of passing a ballot initiative to save elk hunting in Idaho.
Report: Sad but true, the Idaho legislature did nothing. More sad, though, Idaho elk hunters did nothing. No ballot initiative proposed to date, and even though I’ve inquired several times, no current plans to do so. Game farmers won the war in Idaho.

Prediction: The Nation of Wyoming will continue to ignore pressure from other states and sport groups to close state-run elk feedgrounds or do anything to defuse the Chronic Wasting Disease Time Bomb. And efforts to control CWD infestations in other states like Colorado and Wisconsin will continue to fail.
Report: True. But in a classic do-as-say-not-as-do exercise, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department did encourage residents not to feed elk and other big game animals.

Prediction: We’ll see a major, regional Wilderness bill introduced into 110th Congress, but it won’t pass, but one or two small quid pro quo bills might pass.
Report: Half true. The Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act was introduced and didn’t pass, but no smaller bills were even introduced. More on that in coming weeks.

Prediction: Market forces such as high energy and construction costs and soaring land prices will start to slow rural sprawl that is incrementally destroying wildlife habitat throughout the New West.
Report: If this came true, it was only slightly and not obvious.

Prediction: Gridlock between natural allies for Wilderness, mountain bikers and hikers, will continue if not intensify, helping keep the expectations for any major Wilderness legislation low.
Report: True.

Prediction: Educational programs will start making some progress towards developing a sharing attitude among motorists and cyclists on our paved roadways.
Report: In my personal experience, it seems like this might be true, but no way to calculate or prove it.

Prediction: And finally, I predict that the biggest outdoor story of them all won’t even be considered an outdoor story. The Trillion Dollar War will continue to suck federal and state wildlife and natural resources agency budgets dry and affect wildlife management and outdoor recreation in more negative ways than we could count.
Report: So sad and so true, and I made a slight miscalculation on the cost. From now on, I’ll more correctly call it The Three Trillion Dollar War.

[End of article]

Comment By Jerry, 12-27-07

Gee...to think I had coffee with a prophet this morning.

Comment By Robert Hoskins, 12-28-07

Bill

Regarding lawsuits over wolf delisting, we have to wait until the Fish & Wildlife Service officially delists wolves to begin legal action. We expect this action to occur in February or March of 2008.

Otherwise, you're on target with wolves. Further, the oligarchs of Wyoming not only have no plans to close elk feedgrounds, they are expanding elk test and slaughter to two more feedgrounds (Scab and Fall Creeks) in the Pinedale Elk Herd area--if they can get the roads plowed into the feedgrounds. The program is costing thousands of dollars PER elk to operate and the biologists are sick and tired of it because it's useless. However, the local oligarchs--the ranchers--are perfectly happy, because here's another example of the control they wield over the Wyoming G&F;Department.

There's not much to look forward to with conservation in 2008. The black hats are winning, the brown hats (mainstream conservation groups) are brown-nosing the the black hats, and the white hats (such as the Buffalo Field Campaign) have no money to do what they're doing. They've done so much with so little for so long that they do it as if they're photosynthetic.

RH

P. S. Yes, I am commenting again, for the time being.

Comment By Jerry, 12-28-07

The buffalo field campaign has no money? The last 501(c)(3) form 990 filed 12/2006 shows them with assets of $200,903.00. They are also listed as having an annual income of $20,135.00 per year.

In my book that does not really qualify as having no money.

Comment By Robert Hoskins, 12-28-07

Having to support 30-50 people in the field in winter and spring on such limited funds constitutes in any reasonable person's book extreme poverty.

Such a foolish, ignorant comment.

Comment By Jerry, 12-28-07

My Buffalo Field Campaing financial data I stated is incorrect. The correct annual income is $210,135.00 and the total assets are listed as $980,823. My feable typing skills strike again. All information IS from 12/2006 IRS form 990 for 501(c)(3) organization named Buffalo Field Campaign. They also participate in a consortium of sorts that combine funds to "deal" with "certain" issues. So I truly do not think $$$ are an issue.

Comment By Jerry, 12-28-07

Hey Robert,

Why the name calling? I am by no means ignorant nor am I foolish. As a contributor (didn't know that did ya) to the Buffalo Field Campaign (anonomous donation from Private Trust) I do really want to know where my money is going. Not trying to throw stones here, but my SAR team 12 Team Members operates on $15,000.00 per year. We buy own own gear, pay for all our own fuel...and we cannot bill for SAROPS. I do admit that researching Buffalo preservation, mating habits, etc. does cost money, perhaps lots of it, but I really do feel (as a contributor)that I really do get annoyed with pleas of impoverishment and could ya send more money.

In the future could you do me and therest of us a favor? Could you please cease the name calling and insults...we all have views on topics. Let us all be adults and allow views, differing or not to be freely posted...but leave the insults and name calling out of the discussion.

Comment By Mary Anna Clay, 1-06-08

Folks,
Had to almost die of laughter. Reading through articles and comments. As far as the Grey Wolf conteversy, never indingenous to Wyoming, a Hybrid species. The article my husband and I read, in one of his hunting magazines, says it all. For those folks, that think the out of doors is a petting zoo. Must of grown up in the city where they haven't a clue, purchase milk in the grocery store, no such things as cows and dairy farms. Comes packaged in a plastic bottle. Anyhow, what I loved in one article, was the comment, send the folks who are still championing the "kind" wolfs, decimating elk, deer herds, threatning rancher's livestock, and oh oops, us homo sapiens, send them out in the wilderness with a pork chop tied around their neck.
Mary Anna
P.S. Should never have been reintroduced, definitely should be taken off the "endangered species list". Didn't belong there in the first place.

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