A roundup of the confusion
Field Day for Political Analysts
By Jill Kuraitis, 4-23-08
Trying to analyze yesterday’s Pennsylvania primary win for Hillary Clinton has political analysts jumping up and down like schoolkids with their hands in the air saying, “I know! I know!”
Conflicting commentary dominates the news cycle, with everything from she-won-but-it-doesn’t-matter to she’s-inevitable-get-used-to-it.
The conventional wisdom that Democrats do it again - drilled themselves into the ground without hitting water for the thirsty faithful who just want an electable nominee – contrasts with, of course, the line that Republicans have their guy and early panic among conservatives that McCain’s so-called liberal views weren’t acceptable has almost jelled into their typical, disciplined united front.
But analysis is more complex than conventional.
Dick Polman, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s political columnist, puts the assumed attitude this way: “Six weeks of bowling and Bittergate and Pastorgate and nonexistent Bosnian snipers....and for what? The Pennsylvania results have essentially changed nothing. There is seemingly no cure for the chronic Democratic migraine - and the fear, among so many members, that they are tearing themselves asunder.”
But at least one writer, Gerald Seib of the Wall Street Journal, thinks the Democrats’ long period of disagreement is an advantage because “there is an intangible benefit to fighting through all the primaries: Like two-a-day practices at a football training camp, the process develops a kind of toughness that is beneficial.”
Analyzing voter demographics in Politico, David Paul Kuhn has this: “There were few surprises in Pennsylvania, according to the exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for television networks and The Associated Press. Clinton held about 65 percent of white women and about 55 percent of the key swing bloc of white men, a strong showing though slightly weaker than her Ohio showing.”
But also this: “Young Democrats made up only 12 percent of voters, however. In comparison, fully 22 percent were age 65 and older. Clinton won more than six in 10 senior voters while winning a majority of all voters 40 and older.”
But Millenial Makeover thinks younger people will have more influence in the general election.
Tom Bevan of Time and RealClearPolitics bravely comes out in favor of confusion with: “So is Clinton’s 10-point win a “game changer?” Depends on who you talk to, I suppose. Obama supporters and the Obama campaign will argue that nothing has changed: Clinton is still trailing in pledged delegates, trailing in number of states won, and trailing in the popular vote.”
May 6 will bring primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which could be decisive. With momentum now at a baffled - and baffling - stall, the assumption that Obama is favored in both states is more than in question.
Read more confounding analysis at RealClearPolitics.
[End of article]North Carolina Jill. Obama already won South Carolina.
Its all good except for the poor traditional media trying to find a theme and continuing to make inane comments regarding trivial matters which the public will continue to ignore. Dems will continue to dominate the headlines towards Obama's eventual victory. And McSame twists in the wind.
Thank you. Corrected.
Comment By Tom von Alten, 4-24-08One interesting facet of the campaign is to watch the implication of one variation in Party Rules play out: awarding delegates by winner-take-all, versus proportional to the votes cast. The former is clearly a more decisive approach (even if its use in the general election occasionally requires intervention by a Supreme Court or two).
It's often said in the business world that a bad decision is better than no decision. Which I guess is the basis for the Republican's choice of how to award delegates?
Agreed Tom. Frankly I think the D method was genius. I'm not one who looks on the protracted race as a bad thing since Ds are dominating the headlines and McCain can't get any traction. I see the Republicans are starting to run attack ads on Obama which shows how scared they are of him. They would much rather run against Hillary. But they know they have to start now because Hillary won't be tough enough and they can do the math.
Comment By flounder, 4-24-08Why is there an assumption that Obama is favored in Indiana? From what I remember of Indiana it is basically Ohio with more cigarette stores and fireworks stands. And seriously, what is a 51-49 win in Indiana gonna prove?
Comment By bear bait, 4-24-08Hold it!! The burning question is that when Bush looked deep, deep into Putin's eyes, and saw his soul, did he also see him marrying a 24 year old gymnast, a girl essentially the same age as Bush's daughters?
I am still laughing. The honeymoon trampoline or was it a spring board? The need for some floor exercise time. Judges with paddle with numbers on them. "And the Russian judge gave Putin a 10.1!!!!" "I spent the summer at our retirement dascha with her flipping out over me."
And if you think our process is anymore refined, not dominated by super alpha males, you didn't look at the trophy brides earlier in the primary season. Fred Thompson's wife would fail a Coast Guard stability test. And Biden's hair plugs, all spaced like a Plum Creek thinning job, holding his very young children in his very old arms. Chris Dodd with his arm candy wife and nanny cared for kids. Even McCain with the stunning blonde AND her inheritance. McCain and Kerry. Those Navy guys know how to pick 'em. Ya just gotta love the egos that run the world.
So with this all in mind, Bill Clinton is coming to Oreygawn this weekend to advance his pride and joy. My first inclination was to hire someone to play the song that has the words "lady with the blue dress, blue dress on" over and over on one of those old time trucks with the war surplus speakers pointed port and starboard, like were around when I was a kid. Better sense says no.
I will tell you this about Bill Clinton. He has had protection around him his whole life. He has led a sheltered life. He never had a workaday job in his life. The reason I know that is he points his finger at people when he talks, and sometimes jabs that finger at them, right at their chest. In this end of the world, if you did that enough, someone was going to poke you, hard, in the nose. Drop you like a hot rock. That is a fighting pose, a threatening stance. That jabbing finger is an invitation to have your snot locker realigned. His is too straight, has never been hit. He continues to point and poke. He never learned that lesson, is less a man for it. And that is why many men do not find him able to lead, and have no inclination to elect his wife and have him around again jabbing that index finger in their collective chests. Hillary was the smarty pants spouse, and who needs Bill to play that role in another of the same old same old?
Nope not favored in Indiana. It'll be within 5 either way. But the one thing going for Obama there is that its ne corner is essentially part of Chicago and therefore Obama's home territory. They already know him and like him.
And nope, nothing will be decisive until the convention. Unless Obama wins them all handily.
This very long primary season was originally looking to be the height of boredom, now it is the best I can remember. Hope it continues thru the long, hopefully warm, summer.
Comment By flounder, 4-26-08Watch it Marion. The way you understand climate, if it is a warm summer you will switch from being a global warming denialist to being its biggest supporter. I mean you claimed there was no warming because some neighborhood kids beaned you with a snowball this winter, what happens when you fall asleep on the porch, shotgun in hand, and get a really bad sunburn?
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