Column: U.S. Senate Race

LaRocco Releases Poll

“If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were independent Rex Rammell, Republican Jim Risch and Democrat Larry LaRocco, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?”

By Jill Kuraitis, 7-01-08

Internal polling for former congressman Larry LaRocco, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, shows he trails opponent Lt. Gov. Jim Risch by 15 percentage points, plus or minus 4.5%.  Risch had 43%, LaRocco 28%, Rammell 6%, Other 6%, and Undecided 18%.

But when voters were read LaRocco and Risch’s stance on issues, LaRocco took the lead at 40 to 37 percent, with the same margin of error. Rammell was 5%, Other 5% and Undecideds dropped to 13%.

The poll was conducted between May 20 and 25 by Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.  500 likely Idaho voters were questioned.

As I wrote yesterday, President Bush’s disapproval rating came in at 54% in LaRocco’s poll – the first time a majority of Idahoans disapproved of the job Bush is doing.  With a 4.5 margin of error, that could be as high as 59.50% or as low as 49.5%.

Surprisingly, more than one-third of those polled either didn’t know of, or had no opinion of Risch, who was briefly governor two years ago and has been lieutenant governor for five years.  More than half didn’t know or have an opinion of LaRocco.

Asked to review Risch’s performance for his job as lieutenant governor, 49% said he did an excellent or good job while 31% rated him as fair or poor.
For his job as governor, 42% rated Risch as excellent or good while 38% rated him as fair or poor.

Risch’s general unfavorable rating was 23% and LaRocco’s 20%.

Applying the margin of error to head-to-head numbers for LaRocco and Risch produces two widely different scenarios: the candidates could be as far apart as LaRocco 10.5%, Risch 47.5% - or as close as LaRocco 32.5%, Risch 38.5%. That and Risch’s relatively low job approval numbers could give encouragement to the LaRocco campaign.

Poll respondents were asked which issues were most important to them:
Jobs and the economy, 21%
Energy independence and gas prices, 17%
War in Iraq, 12%
Health care and prescription drugs, 9%
Social Security and retirement security, 7%
Taxes, 7%
Education, 5%
Homeland security and terrorism, 4%
Illegal immigration, 2%
Ethics and political corruption, 2%
Budget deficits, 2%
Farming and agriculture, 2%
Mortgage foreclosures, 1%
Other, 3%

The Risch campaign has been asked to comment but has not yet responded. An update will be posted here once they do.

[End of article]

When was the last time any of us saw Jim Risch – in our town, on TV, or anywhere? This might account for the fact that one third of us didn’t even recognize his name, but let’s face it – for a man that lied about a tax cut in a statewide ad, he should have been able to pull at least half the state to approve of his job as governor. He didn’t even come close. This just proves that we aren’t as gullible as he thinks, and don’t take to being lied to or insulted on television. These numbers show just how weak the Republicans have become in this supposedly red state, and how LaRocco’s chances for a Senate seat just keep getting better.

I can't believe more people don't know who Risch is. I guess it just shows that the guy actually might have to do something if he wants to get some recognition. Other than, you know, shooting Rammel's elk.

I'm shocked that health care was only fourth on the list, but then, with gas prices this high, it's hard to think in the long term. At least terrorism was seventh, which means maybe we can finally move on.

All these stats are great for the energy of a campaign, Mr.LaRocco seriously needs articulate in public speeches his differences from Mr.Risch and the solutions he wants to accomplish for Idahoans and America. An articulate intelligent democrat should easily appeal to democrats, centrist republicans and maybe a few true fiscal conservatives.

The constant old school negative attacks on Mr. Risch are to easy and to often that people are starting to ignore this old school democratic whining strategy. Mr.LaRocco articulate the solutions on Energy, Health Care, Education, Government for the People not corporate interests.

LaRocco now assumes with Ms. Cerami an unwavering support from contemporary progressive democrats (who are the future) without addressing progressive policies, such as; he promotes lobbyist activities and he was a lobbyist, LaRocco & Associates, Inc, which merged with Fleishman-Hillard, he then headed the big time Washington lobbying shop that did millions worth of business, clients included insurance companies, oil and gas technology and health care interests. His son was quoted "Lobbying is a big and growing part of the Washington scene," Matthew LaRocco says, "like it or not."

This is a big concern that will be used against him as he attacks Risch’s financial support and corporate connections. LaRocco must come out, denounce K-Street, lobbyist money, ability to influence congress and should immediately stop accepting all PAC money.

Democrats must help prop up Mr. Rammell and keep his campaign funded and hope his campaign can siphon off votes from Risch.