By Matthew Frank, 7-19-08
| Caption: Click the image to download the executive summary of Mountain Megas. Click here for the full report (PDF). | |
- The Intermountain West -- dominated by its five vast “megapolitan” areas -- has emerged as America’s fastest-changing, most surprisingly urban region.
The report cites the region's ongoing and surprisingly urban population explosion, its rapidly changing economy, demographic changes due to in-migration from other states and aboard, and that the boom will very likely continue -- the five megas are together projected to add nearly 12.7 million residents and more than 8 million jobs by 2040.
"The region is neither the Old West, nor the New West. It is the New New West, continuously unfolding."
- These changes have brought many benefits to the Intermountain West but they also are posing a series of complex, mega-scaled challenges.
The report cites inadequate transportation networks and water and energy systems and grids; the need to enhance research capacity and high-value industry clusters; the need for training and educating an increasingly diverse population; and, despite the existence of mountains and Indian reservations that have led to relatively high-density urban spaces in the West, the need to undo the legacies of auto-oriented development.
Muro adds: "The greatest of the design challenges is retrofitting the auto-scape, and turning a relatively dense but largely monotonous development field into a more varied and complex pattern." He called light rail "urban shock therapy."
- Given these challenges, the time is right for regional leaders and Washington to fashion a new partnership to surmount regional challenges and assert leadership in the nation and the world.
"Western leaders require a steady, supportive partner in the federal government to offer leadership on certain uniquely federal, border-transcending issues like inter-mega transportation, basic science research, immigration, and climate change responses even as it works more frequently to empower the rising megas of the West."
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I never fail to be amazed at the predictions of futurists who seem to ignore the present reality "on the ground" when talking about what's going to happen next. When someone says the West will add more than 12 million residents and 8 million jobs in the next several years, that person is simply projecting from past growth trends, not taking into account intervening variables like the sea change we have now experienced in our economic lives.
People wishing to move West to take advantage of new opportunities must first sell their own home, which has become increasingly difficult, and may stay that way for some years to come. Businesses at the same time have to create new jobs in these places, or there's no point in moving there. That is not happening either, and continues to be mitigated by international offshoring and outsourcing that is not going to go away anytime soon.
Unless you believe that all things are indeed cyclical, and that this is just another downturn that will be succeeded by an offesetting upturn, then you have to acknowledge the possibility that some changes more or less permanently change the landscape. Peak oil and climate change are two of these things; the end of the real estate game as we know it may be another.
A lot of this report seems to be based on the anti-auto anti-suburban planning babble of left wing visionaries who don't realize that a lane mile of highway or road is the most inexpensive form of public transportation and that the freedom to choose to go where you want when you want is severely compromised by bus and train schedules at a much higher cost per passenger mile. The idea that we'll save the planet by riding the train or bus is totally bogus and will become more bogus as automobiles convert to electric motors powered by fuel cells and batteries.
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