Changing Minds
Why Obama Is Fighting to Win Montana’s Three Votes
By Robert Struckman, 8-03-08
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| Caption: An Obama volunteer talks to a Montana voter. (Great Falls Tribune photo/Ryan Hall) | |
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Montana’s political landscape and its role in the national political scene is changing, and nowhere is it more evident these days than in Barack Obama’s campaign.
His campaign, headed by a savvy political character who cut his teeth in campaigns in the Big Sky, has six fully staffed offices and plans for more.
Some 10,000 voters have signed up to volunteer for his campaign. His media crew is running television ads across the state. His is a serious bid for Montana’s three electoral votes. It’s the first real push by a Democrat in probably 50 years.
The best piece of reporting on this subject so far - and the only one to ask why - is Obama’s high-profile push in Montana draws comparisons to McCain’s low-key approach by Kim Skornogoski in the Great Falls Tribune.
A top Obama official told me not too long ago that there are many ways to reach 270, the magic number of electoral votes needed to win the White House.
Here’s a statistic worth considering: Al Gore had 269 electoral votes without Florida in 2000. He didn’t need that state’s bonanza. If he had redirected his efforts - and cash - to any other state, he could have squeaked out a victory.
But apparently Gore’s campaign thought about politics the way so many East Coast political writers do.
Consider the likes of Blue-Staters Run Through It, by Douglas Belkin in the Wall Street Journal last week.
(But first, would anyone help me to ban any reference to the “River Runs Through It?” It may be a nice piece of writing, but please.... No more.)
Belkin’s analysis is that Montanans are like blocks of wood. Unchangeable. Only by moving those cord piles can you change the voting tendency of the state.
Belkin counts 200,000 college-educated newcomers and 100,000 fewer Montana-born hicks, and that explains the state’s Democratic governor and two U.S. senators. His 10-cent view of Montana’s political past misses its egalitarian, populist base, its contrariness and its isolationism. Most of all, he misses the ability of Montana voters to change their minds.
Why is it so hard for some people to think that voters can change their minds?
In the end, Montana may well disappoint Obama on Election Day. One poll has Obama and John McCain running neck-and-neck.
Still, I hope Obama’s campaign will convince future national candidates to at least fight for votes in states like Montana.
[End of article]It's hard to envision Obama being much of a fighter when he ducks mano-y-mano debates with a tired old man. See: ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hjmksVl2byqc_-Lkbri0QQWkgUwgD92AFT400
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic candidate Barack Obama on Saturday backed away from rival John McCain's challenge for a series of joint appearances, agreeing only to the standard three debates in the fall.
In May, when a McCain adviser proposed a series of pre-convention appearances at town hall meetings, Obama said, "I think that's a great idea." In summer stumping on the campaign trail, McCain has often noted that Obama had not followed through and joined him in any events.
Obama's reversal on town hall debates is part of a play-it-safe strategy he's adopted since claiming the nomination and grabbing a lead in national polls. Advisers to the Illinois senator, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss strategy, say Obama is reluctant to take chances or give McCain a high-profile stage now that Obama's the front-runner.
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There's a vast difference between fighting and pandering for votes.
When you are dealing with emotional cripples, it is a good idea to submit to that kind of thinking, craigie; but when you are trying to remain rational, you ask yourself--what is in it, actually, for me..?
Comment By Tom, 8-03-08You talk about republicans being uneducated hicks, yet we find that most high school dropout third generation welfare recipients are liberals. Is there something with this picture?
Comment By Susan, 8-04-08To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Craig is calling McSame a "tired old man". Playing by the Wes Clark rules, I believe Craig just denigrated McSame's military service. You see, he is old because he's been around since Vietnam and he is tired because he was a POW.
Comment By i guess i vote Obama, 8-04-08I'm not much for Obama, but McCain is a empty suit, a bag of skin. The guy can't even control the kind of campagin he runs.
Obama does not represent me perfectly, but at least he can stand on his own, command a vision. I'm sick of corporate/special interest tools in washington.
flounder, Obama's unwillingness to meet McCain, mano-y-mano, in a Lincoln Douglas style debate is troubling. If he lacks the courage to openly debate McCain without benefit of a protective moderator, how on earth is he prepared to meet with world leaders and talk to our enemies as he has promised to do?
Comment By Cindy, 8-04-08Maybe one ought to take a good look at Obama's voting record. All of you who like to hunt, say good bye to your guns. Those who want lower gas prices, he will vote against any development of rescources in this state, thus higher property taxes (money for schools, roads, services etc have to come from somewhere). He voted for pregnant children not telling parents about having abortions across state lines, yet schools can't give aspirns, hospitals can't do surgery without parents consent, (ironical). Higher taxes for us all if one figures out his tax scene correctly, and jobs will become more scarce than they are now.
By all means vote for this man and then suffer the aftermath.
Cindy, I agree that someone has to pay for schools, roads, etc. I wish someone had done it before you went to school, so you would have learned to spell.
It is common for the person losing in the polls to demand more debates. This election is no different, with McSame demanding a bunch of town halls. Of course McSame has to throw out librarians and black people from his town halls, so this is a situation where McSame is shaking in his Depends that his bluff isn't called.
flounder, what a sleazy load of bull. At an event a black reporter was asked by the Secret Service, without the knowledge or consent of the McCain people, to remove himself from the backstage area. To charge McCain with this is sleazy politics. If there is something else you were referring to please advise.
Last week Obama tried to play the race card against McCain and couldn't back it up. Can you do any better?
Yes. "Strict constructionist judges" is a term that was used by Strom Thurmond and his buddies that meant judges that would not enforce civil rights laws. So anytime a Republican uses this term, he is "playing the race card".
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/b8529d0e-381e-4a29-9c39-6a57c7e182c9.htm
Cindy, I hunt, I'm going to vote for Obama, and I think you are full of it.
Always the same old claims from you people. "He's going to take your guns, He' going to raise your taxes." you're like Chicken Little and The Boy Who Cried Wolf rolled into one.
He ain't going to take anyones guns. And it's Bush's fault the economy is tanking. The whole idea with the Bush tax cuts that benefit the top was that it would stimulate the economy (the whole trickle down economics thing). We'll it didn't. It clearly doesn't work. So what the hell do I care if taxes are raised on folks making more than 250,000 dollars a year? ... I just did the math and I'd have to make SEVEN TIMES what I do now before that would effect me. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Your right-wingers rhetoric is tired and worn out.
my father was a republican his entire life. very loyal to the party.
he never made much money but he never wavered from his support for Eisenhower,Nixon, Reagan, Bush and W. I watched him die with poor vets benefits and watched as the company he worked for 35 years left him with no retirement.
republicans represent the rich and no-one else. I am ready for change and I hope to see it this November. the middle class needs to get mad about being treated like fools by these aristocrats and their sycophants. McCain wants your vote so he can make his friends rich, just like W. not this time. not this bear. not if my poor independent vote has anything to say about it.
problembear you write: "republican represent the rich and no-one else. I am ready for change..." Last May the D's pushed through the $300+ billion Farm Bill. It was ladened with all sorts of pork benefits for major D contributors such as wealthy corporate farmers, biofuels industry, and timber interests. Obama spoke about it in glowing praise on his own website. Needless to say that Ill. is a corn producing state and about one-third of the corn crop goes to biofuels these days. Obama has NO record of opposing special interest legislation where it benefits D benefactors. He has NO record of fiscal responsibility of any kind. Sorry! I know a lot of people who have committed to Obama and look to backfill reasons for their decision...and it just doesn't matter to them if those reason don't hold water.
It leaves me scratching my head why anyone commits to any candidate more than 2 weeks before the election so as to keep an open mind as things sort themselves out. We just never know when a John Edwards type issue may pop out and call into question just who is this candidate and why have they earned loyalty and a vote. Just my $.02.
hey craig, glad to hear from you again. McCain just has the sorry dead eyes of a man who has sold out his soul. Obama looks like the future. McCain just reeks of more of the same- and i just don't think the country can take much more of the same in the white house anymore. as far as congress goes- i don't think we have had good leadership from that body in the past 30 years or so. i don't look for that to change unless we change the ethics standards of the lawmakers- and i really think the white house is the place to look for leadership on that. doesn't seem like we've had much leadership from the current white house on ethics lately and since McCain hugged and kissed W years ago, the only choice for me would be Obama. just call it a gut feeling.
Comment By Craig Moore, 8-09-08problembear, I truly appreciate your point and your gut. What I have been telling people is that none of these guys walk on water or are going to change the entrenched party structure and their servitude to special interests no matter what the rhetoric. What is important to me is that we don't let politics come between relationships which are built on more lasting and honest bedrock. A few votes this way or that will not change a darn thing. Hard feelings though over nothing is a waste. My problem with Obama is that he has no record of leadership on tough issues that people are hoping will lead to real change. Just isn't there. I see him more as a smooth talking puppet than the puppet master. That being said it's a crap shoot either way.
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