watching the polls
McCain’s Lead in Montana Dwindling, Poll Shows
By Matthew Frank, 10-09-08
John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Montana is shrinking, according to a poll released Thursday by American Research Group.
McCain is now up by five points—50 percent to 45 percent—compared to last week’s eight point advantage (in a Rasmussen Reports poll) and double-digit advantages two weeks ago (in polls conducted by Research 2000 and CNN/Time Opinion Research).
Poll details from ARG:
Sample size: 600 likely voters. Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points.
(For what it’s worth, ARG is considered by some to be a less-reliable pollster. Click here for one expert’s explanation.)
In 2004, Montana preferred Bush over Kerry by 20 points.
[End of article]Finally! Some remotely cheerful news!
Comment By Darbarian, 10-21-08How come you guys cut out the Ron Paul factor? "Other" is not Ron Paul. Paul got huge primary numbers in Ravalli, Flathead, Lake, Missoula, and Gallatin counties. On the whole spread, he earned a margin wide enough to easily take McCain's statistically buffered margin in this poll.
I'm not a Ron Paul supporter, but I do think leaving him out of the picture is a huge error on your part because he's on the ballot, and his supporters haven't gone anywhere. He will be McCain's undoing in this election.
Your poll has a 4 percent margin for error, and Paul definitely got a four percent showing in the primaries which means this poll is basically a waste of money and readers' time. I'm not slamming new west. That's true of all the other Montana polls that have done the same thing, even those at national news organizations who just didn't take the time to check with the secretary of state about Paul being on the ballot.
It is slightly misinforming to your readers though because it cuts out a candidate who is actually on the ballot. That's kind of a huge ommission.
I would expect better from every paper except the daily interlake. They are different.
The short bus should drive as fast or far as the long one. Sorry Frank.