watching the polls
Obama Gaining Ground in Montana, Poll Shows
By Matthew Frank, 10-19-08
A new poll of Montana voters shows that John McCain holds a four point lead over Barack Obama, 49 percent to 45 percent, further evidence of a swing in Obama’s direction in a state that hasn’t given its three electoral votes to a Democrat since 1992. McCain had a double-digit advantage less than a month ago.
Analysis from Daily Kos:
Obama’s surge in Montana come from an eight-point gain among Democrats, a four-point gain with Republicans, and a 14-point gain with independents. Unlike North Dakota, the Obama campaign never went dark here. It’s an inexpensive state, and Obama has had ads running in heavy rotation.
Like North Dakota, Montana’s three electoral votes won’t be the margin between victory and defeat. If he wins Montana, he will be well over 300 EVs. But it’ll be more evidence that conservatism has few strongholds left, that even states that went Bush by 19 points in 2004 are in reach, and that the dramatic political realignment in many parts of the Mountain West remains on track.
Because Montana appears to be in play, Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod said after last Wednesday night’s debate that Obama and his running mate Joe Biden were considering another visit to the state.
As for the gubernatorial race, the poll shows Gov. Brian Schweitzer ahead of Roy Brown 57 percent to 40 percent.
The Research 2000 poll was conducted from October 15 through October 16. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Click here for internals.
Montana’s polling trend from Pollster.com:
Go Obama! It would be so sweet if Montana went blue. I feel confident about the country and the county, but the state will be a difficult one to swing.
Comment By Cindy, 10-20-08If Montana people want to hunt and target shoot hand guns or rifles or for protection from grizzlies, wolves, mt. lions while backpacking don't vote for Obama.
If small towns with small business, which usually is about 70 to 80% will gross $250,000 a year, will have to lay off employees due to "spreading the wealth around to lesser income people", vote for Obama. With the lumber and other natural resource industries locked up in our state due to the endangered species act and wilderness areas can Montana afford to loose anymore jobs?
By all means vote for Obama, and then move to another state as one can't find a good job here. This leaves that much more for those of us who can live here as we will be kept by the "spreading of the wealth to low income" people.
Go Mitt!
Comment By Swirl, 10-21-08If you don't understand the tax structure that a candidate is stating, you should educate yourself before posting anywhere. Obama will tax an additional 5% onto the capital gains taxes to help out the middle class. What this means is that those individuals who walk away from their businesses with an annual cash-out of $200,000.00 or married couples who annually cash-out at $250,000.00 will pay an additional 5%. Do you really worry about how harsh that will be on them? This is business owners who have already made enough to pay their employees, pay suppliers, re-inventory, have their insurances paid for by their company and still are forced to take home over $199,999.99 per year. Yeah, you're right, we should feel sorry for them.
Comment By gooddogs, 10-21-08Cindy - the mistake you make is very simple, but one no legitimate businessperson would make. You state most businesses GROSS over 250,000. That is true but businesses are taxed on net revenue after all expenses and tax credits (some are generous, I know, I take advantage of them) are deducted. After that very few small businesses in small towns, like mine would pay any additional tax. Then there is the issue of taxation overall, who will pay for the obscene spending of the Bush years? Do you want your kids and grandkids to pay for our years or do you want to be an adult and step up to your own responsibility?
Comment By Dan, 10-23-08Congressional Quarterly just changed its race rating for Montana from "leans Republican" to "No clear favorite." http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/
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