Blue, Not Purple

By Richard Martin, 10-23-08

	Caption: Together we can re-paint the place

Among lefty Denver/Boulder politicos these days there are two predominant emotions: elation, with the feeling that producing an Obama victory in Colorado could well tip the entire election to the Democrat, and dread, as in “How are we going to f**k it up this time?”

In a sense it’s no surprise that Colorado is now listed as “Lean Obama” in most national electoral-college projections; since the 2004 presidential election the state has gone deep-blue, electing a Democratic governor and a legislature with both houses now controlled by Democratic majorities.

Not only is Colorado likely to vote Democratic for president on Nov. 4, but also the two most prominent congressional races could both break for the Democrats as well. Mark Udall now has a solid lead over Republican Bob Schaffer for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, and incumbent Rep. Marily Musgrave is locked in a tough race against an unknown Democratic challenger, Betsy Markey.

(On the other hand, a brand new crop of Nader-Gonzales signs has cropped up in recent days along U.S. 36 heading south out of Boulder, in silent witness to the possibility that the far left could conceivably once again snatch a Democratic defeat from the jaws of victory, as in 2000.)

Both candidates continue to slog it out in Colorado, with McCain returning on Friday and Obama appearing in Denver on Sunday. But for all the talk about the Mountain West turning purple, and producing a new hybrid politics beyond the dominant parties, the fact is that Colorado – the most urban of the Rockies states – is turning Democratic far more rapidly and decisively than any political expert would have predicted just two years ago.

The Colorado Independent reports that the latest data from the Secretary of State’s office on party affiliation reveal a startling fact: among “active voters,” Democrats outnumber Republicans in the Centennial State.

“As of Saturday, Colorado voter registration rolls showed 876,498 active Democrats, 870,435 active Republicans and 789,200 active unaffiliated voters, according to the secretary of state’s office,” reports the Independent’s Jason Kosena. Counting active and “inactive” voters (people registered but non-voting in recent elections), the Republicans still have a slight advantage. That accords with demographic trends: many of the more recent migrants to Colorado tend to be both more progressive and more politically active than longtime residents.

Sen. John McCain, of Arizona, is faring poorly in his home region, notes polling analyst Nate Silver on The New Republic Web site: “He now trails Obama in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, all three of which went to George Bush in 2004.”

Silver reviews the familiar explanation for this tilt, including demographic shifts, distrust of Beltway insiders, and disaffection with the war in Iraq. “The region that had once appeared to harbor the most potential for McCain,” he concludes, “might now contain the states that tip the balance of the election toward Obama.”

But the shifts in Colorado go beyond the 2008 presidential election. If indeed we are seeing this year a major national realignment comparable to Kennedy’s victory in 1960 and the rise of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the West is likely to be a bellwether for a dramatic shift toward Democratic principles and candidates, with Colorado on the leading edge. If that happens, it’s possible the Democrats could solidify their ascendancy for a generation.