U.S. Drivers Hit the Brakes

By Richard Martin, 12-16-08

In a report that will doubtless find its way to the highest corridors of power in Washington, D.C., the Brookings Institute concludes that Americans’ love affair with the automobile is ending.

For the first time on record, U.S. vehicle miles traveled declined year-to-year in 2007, the study, entitled “The Road...Less Traveled,” finds. “America is experiencing its longest and steepest drop in driving, signaling a permanent shift away from reliance on the car to other modes of transportation,” write study authors Robert Puentes and Adie Tomer.

What’s more, this decline predates the current economic downturn and the huge run-up in gas prices of 2007-08. “The number of miles that Americans have traveled in their cars started to slow as far back as 2004 - long before the extreme fluctuation in gas prices and the start of the economic recession - and has been falling since 2007.”

Brookings cites a number of factors that have contributed to the slowdown, including growing environmental concerns, the availability (and appeal) of alternative modes of transport, the rise of denser urban cores – and the limits of motorists’ tolerance for traffic jams, long commutes, and high gas prices.

“The American driver has hit a wall,” said Robert Puentes in a statement. “We are now driving the same distance per year as we did in 1998.”

At a time when the political will for tackling global climate change is peaking and when the incoming administration will be looking for ways to stimulate the economy, the findings have far-reaching policy implications. For one thing, with vehicle miles starting to decline, revenues from the gasoline tax are dropping as well. Among the authors recommendations: raising the federal gas tax, repealing the “gas-guzzler” tax exemption for SUVs and light trucks, and, ultimately, a carbon tax.

Interestingly, some states in the Mountain West are leading the trend: the top three states in terms of declining miles traveled in the last two years are Nevada (down 7.3%), Idaho (7.1%), and Colorado (7.1%).

Those improvements are in sharp contrast to developments elsewhere in the region. “The only states with a jump up in driving (total VMT) since 2006 are North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.”