GOP BLUES
Hispanic Vote, Transplants Helped Democrats Rise in the West
In the West and across the country, Republicans are in crisis.
By David Frey, 7-02-09
For the first time in a century, the mountain West has more Democratic senators, and more Democratic congress members, than Republicans.
That’s part of a shift across the region and the nation, say a pair of Stanford University professors, that has the Republican Party in crisis.
“There is no silver bullet for Republicans,” says Doug Rivers, professor of political science at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. “For the short-run, the news is pretty bad.”
The West is still consistently Republican territory, say Rivers and his colleague, David Brady, who spoke on Wednesday at the Aspen Institute’s annual Aspen Ideas Festival, an annual gathering of leaders and thinkers. But the GOP grip on the region is waning.
Even in states where Barack Obama couldn’t beat John McCain, he enjoyed strong gains over Democratic contender John Kerry four years earlier. Obama outperformed Kerry by 6 percent in Montana, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and New Mexico and by 5 percent in Wyoming.
The West’s congressional delegation went solidly blue, flipping the situation from 26 years earlier. Back in 1983, the West had 15 Republican senators and seven Democrats. This year, it has nine Republicans and 13 Democrats.
It’s the same story in the House. Democrats rose from 8 in 1983 to 17 this year. Republicans tumbled from 15 to 10.
What happened? In part, Hispanic voters made up a stronger portion of Western voters, they say, and they came out strongly for Obama. In part, liberal transplants came to the West, shifting the voting patterns.
But part of it seems to be a crisis in the Republican Party, where once solid portions of the GOP platform are tumbling away. Opposition to gay marriage is waning among the public, they say, and while Democrats seem willing to compromise, many Republicans aren’t. Same with abortion. Democrats have been more willing to back anti-abortion candidates than Republicans have been to back pro-abortion candidates.
Immigration is a hot-button issue for many Republicans, but they warn it could be a losing issue as Hispanic voters grow. And religion, a centerpiece of the GOP, is on the wane among the public.
Even on issues like taxes and global warming, Republicans are distancing themselves from the mainstream, they say.
“The best hope of the Republican Party is that the Democrats overreach,” Brady says.
As the nation turns bluer, Republicans will have to turn to independents for success, he says.
“I’d say (to Republicans), don’t count too much on 2010,” he says. “Start working on 2012.”
This all begins to swing back beginning with the 2010 mid-terms. Obama can continue to administer economic pain. Fine. Even those idiotic "moderates" so lusted after by both parties will return to the fold because they'll be disillusioned by Obama's overt fiscal fascism. But, democrats can enjoy the party (both definitions) for another year anyway. Happy 4th of July.
Comment By TK, 7-02-09Your numbers are inconsistent. When you count senators you count 11 western states, including the coastal three. When you count House members you count just the 8 interior West states. Even there it appears your number of Republican House members (10) is wrong and should be 11. Your lede talks about the Mountain West having more Republican senators than Democrats for the first time in a century. The Mountain West currently has 9 Republican senators and 7 Democrats. Last time I checked California, Oregon and Washington weren't part of the Mountain West.
Comment By Dave Skinner, 7-02-09TK,
This is NEW West. We need NEW perceptions and NEW realities, and doncha know, perception is reality in the NEW west.
Keep voting Democrat and we will see amnesty legislation over and over again. I am tired of it. I am tired of seeing millions flaunt our laws. White, black, brown, green whatever, if you are working in this country illegally, you are stealing a job from a legal person. Democrats were suppose to be the party of the average joe, but you see how far their loyalty to the true Americans go!
Comment By Daryl L. Hunter, 7-04-09Carter gave us Reagan and Obama will provide a good reason for the west to return to its conservative base very very soon.
Government Motors, socialism medicine, ACORN, GPS milage tax, cap and trade, bastardized Keynesian economics, Value added tax, the pull back of energy production will all provide westerners ample reason to pull the conservatives back to power.
As usual, conservatives are deaf, dumb, and blind. Pay attention to the demographics, which reflect fundamental changes. There's no going back to the good old days, which, having lived through them, I know weren't all that good.
Now's as good a time as any to learn Spanish, Gringos.