No Fires Here
Rare Mid-Summer Storms Douse Montana, Idaho
By Jonathan Weber, 8-07-09
This is usually the season for hot, dust-dry and smokey air here in Western Montana, with the occasional thunderstorms offering little in the way of precipitation but lots of fire-starting lightening. But it's been pouring rain here in Missoula for most of today, on top of a whole lot of rain yesterday, and concern about fires has now been replaced with concern about floods.Flash-flood and small-stream flood advisories are in place for much of Western and Central Montana, and more than two inches of rain have fallen in Missoula. Most of Idaho has also seen heavy rains - NewWest.Net Boise correspondent Jill Kuraitis reported yesterday that the thunderstorms there were the most dramatic she had seen in ages, and the lightening strikes were starting fires that were then immediately put out by heavy rain.
The forecast is for more rain, and then clearing by Sunday with more rain by the middle of next week. In fire parlance, it looks like this qualifies as a "season-ending event," and we're all pretty happy not to have to worry about wildfires for the rest of this summer at least. The one significant fire in Western Montana, the Kootenai Creek fire, will likely be all but out by tomorrow.
[End of article]
Since about 1895, U.S. Rainfall has been increasing at about 1.8 inches per Century. Additionally, the trends in glacier shortening and sea level rise began a century before the 60 year 6 fold increase in hydrocarbon use and the trend rates have not changed during that increase. Which means that hydrocarbon use is not causing the increased precip, glacier shortening or sea level rise.
Comment By Ada, 8-07-09Put down that crack pipe Mickey. The article is about a rain event in Montana and Idaho. WTF are you rattling on about glaciers and hydrocarbon use for?
Comment By Mickey Garcia, 8-08-09If you don't understand the connection, you probably don't understand the forces creating the weather or the climate.
Comment By Bob, 8-09-09Not sure what Mickey got into; but our road was flooded, had to take the truck as the car would not have made it.
Comment By ryan, 8-09-09mickey- your time line does not work out too well. there is only one century between 1895 and now so you can not accurately use that statistic. actually rainfall has decreased significantly since the 1950s. look at hydrographs from all over the countryfor the past 80 years and the trend has definitely been a decline in precip for 60 years. as far as global climate change goes, the link between hydrocarbon use and change is significant but more important are the astronomical implications of the milankovitch cycles, the oceanic oscillations and atmospheric perturbations. what is driving these forces is not yet known to us.
Comment By John Molloy, 8-09-09Regarding Ryan's comments
"but more important are the astronomical implications of the milankovitch cycles..."
And lest we forget, the rather obvious linkage to a currently quite inactive sun as well as tree ring studies that show that drier and colder, sometimes much colder being the norm. A spectacular example of such is the allocation of water from the Colorado River during the 1930's. Flow measurements were taken during the 1920's for the purposes of allocation, and "The Colorado River Compact" over-allocating its waters resulted from these measurements.
As misfortune would have it, compounding the idiocy of allocating by good measure above what was available even during that period of copious precipitation, tree ring studies later proved that those measurements were taken during the wettest cycle in over 400 years. Oops! Dry is "normal".
We are blinded by our arrogance, destroyed by our hubris.
And speaking of presumptions! Author Jonathan Weber posits the following: "In fire parlance, it looks like this qualifies as a "season-ending event" regarding the recent rainfall. What?
Though the re-hydration of the soil and plant material is welcome indeed, all these recent storms did was buy some time before fire dangers ratchet up again, at best perhaps a week. Forecast highs are predicted to be in the mid-eighties by tomorrow with that trend continuing for the predicted future. The N.W.S. Fire Weather Forecast does not suggest a high percentage chance of "wetting rains" by midweek. what is coming, as I say this time of year to my wife, "There's a 20% chance of scattered forest fires today."
The fire history (as we know it) of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem statistically demonstrates that the most dangerous period for fires in the region is from mid-August through mid-September. As we move towards the summer to fall transition period, the regions weather is characterized by the movement through of dry "cold" fronts that are very windy and laden with dry lightning. 70% of the fronts that pass through during that period exhibit those behaviors.
As Yogi Berra famously quipped, "It ain't over till' its over", and we haven't even hit the middle innings yet. I would suggest that a little more temperance be exercised in declaring the season ended when the All-Star game is yet to even be played.
"Batter up!"