Top Real Estate Economist’s Advice: Patience

By Jonathan Weber, 10-05-09

Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics in Los Angeles is one of the few economists to have predicted the housing bust, and we’re delighted to have him once again as a keynote speaker for NewWest.Net’s Real Estate and Development in the Northern Rockies conference, Oct. 12-13 in Missoula.

Chris is a fantastic presenter, and this year he’ll be opening the conference at 4:30 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 12, with a special session at the MCT Center for the Performing Arts in downtown Missoula. We have a limited number of tickets available for Chris’s talk and the opening reception only: these are priced at $39. (Visit www.NewWest.Net/realestate or call 406-829-1725 to register).

I chatted with Chris this morning about his current assessment of the national real estate market and the economy as a whole.

“We’re living in a world of extreme uncertainty,” he says, noting that it remains unknown what further actions the government might take to bolster the housing sector, and whether interest rates will remain for long at their current historic lows.

For the short term, Thornberg is not terribly sanguine about the national housing picture. “We had a little surge in interest [in houses] over the summer, with tax breaks and low interest rates bringing people into the market,” he says. “There is pent-up demand. But the pent-up supply is enormous,” and may get worse as foreclosures continue to flood the market with low-priced inventory.

“The recession for now is over, so I am not dour from that perspective. But I’m worried about what comes next,” Thornberg says, noting the potential for the economy to slip back into recession yet again. “The most important part of getting out of this mess is patience. Everybody has to chill.”

And what about the Northern Rockies? How is this region doing compared to other markets around the country? For that, you’ll have to come see Chris speak at Real Estate and Development in the Northern Rockies!