State of the Rockies Project
Study Suggests Substantial Snowpack Loss at West’s Ski Resorts by 2085
By Bryan Hurlbutt, 4-19-06
Snowpack on April 1 is estimated to decline substantially at all major ski resorts in the Rockies according to a study recently released in the 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card. Projected snowpack losses range from 26% in Teton County, Wyoming (home to Jackson Hole), to 89% in Taos County, New Mexico, which could have devastating affects on the ski industry and communities in the region. Additionally, the region’s river basins, which depend on spring snowmelt to supply water to the region’s farms and municipalities, would see similarly drastic losses. And ecoregions in the Rockies will see temperature changes in the range of 5-7 degrees Celsius, putting serious stress on species in the region.The State of the Rockies Project hired ATMOS Research and Consulting to downscale the HadCM3 global climate model for the 8-state Rocky Mountain West, outputting temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in 1976 and 2085 in 12 kilometer grids across the region. State of the Rockies analyzed the data to assess climate’s future impact on the region’s water resources, tourism, and ecosystems. Although these specific findings are not necessarily what will happen (since modeling climate is a tricky endeavor), this is a very realistic scenario, using a highly regarded, middle of the road climate model. The report suggests that mitigating fossil fuel use is important to minimizing human-induced climate change, but climate change is already underway. Therefore, it’s time to start seriously considering the implications of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies. Click here for the Climate Change section of the report (PDF).
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A good effort on a study that is widely needed.
I question the author's ability to defend the use of a downscaled global climate model by simply turning a few knobs and resizing the output grid to 12-kilometer resolution from a model that was originally developed at a resolution of several hundred kilometer. Were any other climate variable used to generate your results rescaled in the model to reflect the smaller spatial extent?
On top of that, can you statistically defend your predicted SWE changes over relatively small spatial scales (counties) from this still large 12 kilometer grid?
I don't question your conclusions that both low latitude and elevation snowpacks are in danger from a ever warming climate, but the means by which you produce your results.
This study did not simply interpolate to a 12x12 km grid. The downscaling method for the GCM output is based on historical climate data from individual weather stations.
Visit http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0404500101v1?view=abstract and http://www.atmosresearch.com/ for more info on the methods.
Your methods are still very much in question along with the statistical validity of your results.
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