State of the Rockies Project
Spring Snowpack Projected to Drop by over 30% at Montana Ski Resorts by 2085
By Bryan Hurlbutt, 4-19-06
Snowpack on April 1 is estimated to decline substantially at all major ski resorts in the Rockies according to a study recently released in the 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card. Projected snowpack losses range from 26% in Teton County, Wyoming (home to Jackson Hole), to 89% in Taos County, New Mexico, which could have devastating affects on the ski industry and communities in the region, not to mention regional water supplies. In Montana, Flathead County will lose 34% and Gallatin County would lose 33% of spring snowpack under the scenario.The State of the Rockies Project hired ATMOS Research and Consulting to downscale the HadCM3 global climate model for the 8-state Rocky Mountain West, outputting temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in 1976 and 2085 in 12 kilometer grids across the region. State of the Rockies analyzed the data to assess climate’s future impact on the region’s water resources, tourism, and ecosystems. Although these specific findings are not necessarily what will happen (since modeling climate is a tricky endeavor), this is a very realistic scenario, using a highly regarded, middle of the road climate model. The report suggests that mitigating fossil fuel use is important to minimizing human-induced climate change, but climate change is already underway. Therefore, it’s time to start seriously considering the implications of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies. Click here for the Climate Change section of the report (PDF). Share your thoughts!
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One of the hallmarks of science is the recognition of uncertainty in every measurement, and especially in every model and prediction. One of the hallmarks of the media is seizing upon the single value with the most impact. This story is a classic conflict between the two (honors here go to the media). The report has indeed chosen reasonable estimates of CO2 that yield reasonable estimates of temperature change, but both have a significant uncertainty (20%?) associated with them. A 12-km grid is a great improvement on previous models, but is still inadequate to accurately characterize many of our mountain ranges and valleys. The largest single unknown in reconstruction and prediction of precipitation is the possition of storm tracks (remember the mid-1980's in Utah?) finally - the April 1 snowpack, while critical to late-season skiers, is not necessarily the best predictor of effects on skiing and ski areas.
All that said, the future will likely bring shorter ski seasons. Predictions, however, should never be reported to two significant figures when their uncertainty is likely to be 50% or more.