State of the Rockies Project

Spring Snowpack Projected to Drop by over 60% at Utah Ski Resorts by 2085

By Bryan Hurlbutt, 4-19-06

Snowpack on April 1 is estimated to decline substantially at all major ski resorts in the Rockies according to a study recently released in the 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card. Projected snowpack losses range from 26% in Teton County, Wyoming (home to Jackson Hole), to 89% in Taos County, New Mexico, which could have devastating affects on the ski industry and communities in the region, not to mention regional water supplies. In Utah, Summit County will lose 61% and Salt Lake County will lose 84% of spring snowpack under the scenario.

The State of the Rockies Project hired ATMOS Research and Consulting to downscale the HadCM3 global climate model for the 8-state Rocky Mountain West, outputting temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in 1976 and 2085 in 12 kilometer grids across the region. State of the Rockies analyzed the data to assess climate’s future impact on the region’s water resources, tourism, and ecosystems. Although these specific findings are not necessarily what will happen (since modeling climate is a tricky endeavor), this is a very realistic scenario, using a highly regarded, middle of the road climate model. The report suggests that mitigating fossil fuel use is important to minimizing human-induced climate change, but climate change is already underway. Therefore, it’s time to start seriously considering the implications of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies. Click here for the Climate Change section of the report (PDF). Share your thoughts!
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Comment By Marion, 4-19-06

I love these doomsday forecasts that are so far in the future that no one will be around to remind them of what they said. I guess they learned from the global freeze folks who were forecasting a global freeze within 10 years....about 30 years ago. I think they are now the same ones predicting a global warming.
When you can accurately predict the weather for tomorrow, I'll listen.

Comment By Bryan Hurlbutt, 4-19-06

I'm in my young 20s, so it is possible that I will be around in 2085! That's not to say I'll be able to remember anything I'm saying today... But Marion brings up two important points: predicting climate is no easy task and one should always be weary of doomsday predictions.

That said, I'm not sure that this report is a doomsday prediction. This report does not show the baking of the Rockies until we all die from the heat and lack of water. It just shows a scenario in which we'll need to make some serious changes to the ways we live in and manage the region.

The report isn't trying to scare anyone into doing anything drastic. It just hopes to open our region's eyes to the best science has to offer right now while further dialogue on this critical issue and inspiring climatologists to continue developing there methods for predicting future climate.

Comment By Lorian, 3-27-07

Complete nonsense! Anyone who actually believes that it's possible to predict the weather 75+ years from now is a complete idiot. It's not even possible to accurately predict weather two weeks away. Unbelievable what stupid journalists will publish.

This article was printed from www.newwest.net at the following URL: http://www.newwest.net/main/article/spring_snowpack_projected_to_drop_by_over_60_at_utah_ski_resorts_by_2085/