In Montana, a Lot on the Line for Both Parties

By Robert Struckman , 11-03-08

	A rally for Democratic candidates in Missoula Monday. Photo by Graham Coppes.

While Montana’s Republican Party has scaled back expectations over the course of this political season and Democrats seem primed to win big—both parties have a lot to lose on Election Day.

If Barack Obama beats John McCain in Big Sky Country, and a blue wave washes over Montana’s statewide offices and the legislature, it could well be interpreted that the state’s voters granted a resounding endorsement to Democrats and thumped the state’s modern Republican Party.

“If we lose both of those, that will obviously be a very hard blow to the Republican Party in the state, no doubt about it,” said Brad Anderson, head of Yellowstone County GOP.

“Starting from top down, in the presidential race, it’s important for Dems because the Republicans have been in ascendancy. If Obama wins, then Montana’s sky is bluer than ever,” said political science professor Craig Wilson at Montana State University in Billings.

Wilson cautioned against reading too much into the race’s dynamics because the logistics of this state senate election are tilted toward the Republicans—with twice as many Democratic seats termed out as Republicans.

Still, consider this statement from Montana Democratic Party spokesman Kevin O’Brien: “What you’re seeing this year is the best-financed, most coordinated legislative effort in the history of the state. It’s unprecedented. I think you’ll see a big night for us on Tuesday, and I’m proud of it.”

It’s the kind of guarantee that can backfire painfully.

If Republican candidates can gain wins in closely fought legislative races, and take a few statewide offices such as attorney general or state auditor, the Democrats will have to reconsider their appeal in a year when they’ve enjoyed national momentum and have out-organized, out-campaigned and out-spent their opponents almost across the board.

Plus, if Republicans control the House or the Senate, or both, they will be able to groom candidates for statewide office and give Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer no end of trouble during the legislative session this winter.

On the other hand, if the Republicans take a round shellacking, the party will face other questions, too, including whether it is fragmenting, losing its most socially conservative core to third-party candidates.

After all, the Libertarian and Constitutional parties have gained some steam in Montana in recent years, most notably with the strong showing for Ron Paul in the Republican primary this year and with state Sen. Rick Jore of Lake County two years ago. Jore, who left the Republican Party, is the only Constitution Party candidate to win a state legislative seat in the nation, Wilson said.

“I’d be very surprised if they win another legislative seat…, but they could be the killer, drawing enough votes from the Republicans so Democrats win,” Wilson said. “In Missoula County, Ron Paul got five times the votes McCain got. Those voters are very conservative, and they care very intensely.”

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