from the new west blog: election 2008

Campaign Focus at Seven Days

By Jill Kuraitis, 10-28-08

Election reading for Tuesday, October 28

NATIONAL
A site which posts a daily update of available political polls, USA Election Polls today has Obama at 48.8 vs. McCain at 41.6.  That’s an average of about 20 different national polls. The electoral vote estimate is Obama 340 vs. McCain 153 (270 needed to win.)

Another compilation site, Electoral-Vote.com, has Obama at 364 vs. McCain 157, with ties at 17.

Politico has its “First Politico Arena Election Prediction Challenge – 2008” posted today, with scholars, political strategists, think tankers, former Congress members and citizen leaders making predictions on the popular vote, the electoral college outcome, House and Senate win counts, and surprise win states.

The National Review Online has some terrific battleground news and links, from the Sen. Ted Stevens felony convictions to excellent swing-state analyses. (The Review is admired by many for its quality reporting, including New West associate publisher Robert Struckman.)

Congressional Quarterly’s CQ Politics has today’s Balance of Power Scorecards. An excerpt:

With the nation’s political atmosphere producing mostly dark clouds for the Republican Party and the strong organizational advantages built by the national Democratic Party fully on display, the trend in this year’s partisan battles for congressional control continues to flow strongly in the Democrats’ favor.
With just a week to go before Election Day, CQ Politics’ 13 latest changes to its competitiveness ratings of U.S. House races, 12 show stronger — though in most cases, far from certain — chances for the Democratic candidate.

WEST
CQ’s “Races to Watch”

Colorado’s 4th District has incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave slightly ahead of Angie Paccione in a Democratic-leaning district.

Idaho’s 1st District has the race leading Republican, but political editor Bob Beneson wrote today that the Minnick-Sali race is “teetering, in our minds, between tossup and No Clear Favorite—in a district that should be a Republican lock.

“We’ve hesitated to move the race to tossup or even Leans Democratic mostly because the district’s track record is SO incredibly Republican. But this gives me an opportunity to clarify what the “Leans Republican” rating means. It says that the Republican candidate has some edge—in Sali’s case, it is almost entirely the huge Republican base in Idaho’s 1st District—BUT that an upset by the Democratic candidate is clearly a plausible possibility. That said, we see this race in the gray area between leaning Republican and trending Democratic… and reserve the option to change our ratings right up until the morning of Election Day.”

Oregon’s 5th District (open seat)
Democrat Kirk Schrader is favored over Republican Mike Erickson.

Wyoming (at large)
CQ calls this race No Clear Favorite between Republican Cynthia Lummis and Democrat Gary Trauner.

More reading and Senate races to follow. Check back often.

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