Governor's Race

Can Keith Allred Work Sebelius’ Magic in Idaho? Being Blue in a Red State.

By Tina Deines, Guest Writer, 9-29-10

	Allred's website invites you to "write your own endorsement letter." Chances are good it'll take more than that for a Dem to beat out the Republican incumbent in Idaho.

The odds seem stacked against Keith Allred, 2010 Idaho Democratic gubernatorial candidate—a non-Republican has not won the state since 1990, when Cecil Andrus was elected to a second term.

While a Democratic win in a redder-than-red state may seem to be a daunting task, Allred’s campaign is not unlike that run by former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, now Secretary of Health and Human Services, who won over her deeply conservative state in 2002 and 2006. Sebelius focused her campaign on people over partisan politics and won the support of many Republicans. As it turns out, the Allred and Sebelius campaigns share more than one similarity.

Sebelius’ main staple was her ability to cross party lines and work with both Democrats and Republicans. In 2002, she ran with a registered Republican, John Moore, and in 2006, she ran with former chairmen of the Kansas Republican Party, Mark Parkinson.

Allred has shown a similar penchant—his campaign co-chairmen are Cecil Andrus, former Idaho Democratic governor, and Laird Noh, former Republican state senator. In addtion, Allred’s formed Republicans for Allred, a group of former and present state GOP leaders. Among them is former Republican Senator Dennis Hansen, who’s active with the campaign and describes Allred as a “can-do mediator” not tied to a political platform.

Hansen says of his own leanings he’s a “very strong committed Republican.” In a speech, he explained his support for the Dem in the race: “After sitting down with Keith for over two hours, I was convinced that Keith Allred is the type of person that we need as governor to lead our state.”

Bryan McQuide, assistant professor of political science at the University of Idaho, said that if Allred wants to win the race, he would need to prove that he truly is nonpartisan, even though he is running under a blue flag.
“What Allred really has to do is show that he really is independent,” McQuide said. “It’s really going to be an uphill battle given the Republican nature of the state.”

Focusing on the basics
Sebelius focused on better education, improving the economy and lowering the costs of healthcare. She steered clear of partisan politics, hammering general issues most Kansans could relate to.

Allred is takes a similar approach— Campaign Spokesmen Shea Andersen said the campaign is “focused like a laser” on things like K-12 education and creating jobs. The “Priorities section” on Allred’s campaign website list only two: jobs and education.

McQuide said this strategy of focusing on only a few key issues could work to Allred’s advantage, balancing out his lack of name recognition in the state: In elections when people do not know a lot about a candidate, too many priorities may confuse them, he said. The key, he said, is “to keep it to two to three key issues so voters can remember you when they go into the polls.”

He also acknowledges this could backfire if Allred does not have a grasp on other key topics like energy, transportation, higher education and agriculture. “Allred has to show he also has an understanding of those issues,” he said.

Allred’s campaign does difffer from Sebelius’ in at least one crucial arena: polls. During her 2006 re-election campaign, Sebelius led in September polls by 11 to 20 percent, depending on the poll. Allred trails incumbent Gov. Butch Otter by 16 percent in the latest statewide poll, which was commissioned by the Idaho Statesman and six other Idaho newspapers.

McQuide’s analysis is that while incumbents such as Otter are more likely to win, Otter should be leading by more in such a Republican-dominated state. He also noted that there is a 20-percent undecided vote in these polls.

Both McQuide and Andersen noted exposure as a main challenge in Allred’s campaign.

“If he can get Democrats and Independents, it could be a very close race,” McQuide said.

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