Politics News | New West Network

Western State Electoral Votes Clacking The Dem Abacus

Clinton, Obama Seek Their Inner West Leading up to Nevada Debate

By Nathaniel Hoffman, 11-15-07

	Presidential candidate Barack Obama tips a cowboy hat given to him by a volunteer after a rally in Austin, TX, on Feb. 23, 2007. Photo by Matthew C. Wright.

It’s tough to picture any of them in boots and a hat. Scary even. But Democratic presidential hopefuls including frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have put time and money into the mountain states, particularly Nevada, in this Groundhog’s Day of a primary season.

And when they descend on Denver next August for the Democratic National Convention, perhaps we will get to see them in fleece, a Nalgene bottle clipped to their belts, titanium hiking polls at the ready.

“How cool would it be to do a party at REI?” asks Arizona’s Democratic Party Chief Maria Weeg, who is headed to the Democratic debate tonight in Las Vegas.

Weeg has visited Denver twice to scout hotels for the convention. She says it’s not news that Democrats are looking Westward in this election cycle. Democratic activists have long eyed the Western states as a potential “hotbed of new Democratic politics,” Weeg said.

Having the convention in Colorado and an early primary in Nevada has raised the importance of the Mountain West among the Democratic campaigns.

“They recognize that there are potential gains in the West,” said Democratic political consultant Jim Duffy, who works in Washington D.C.

While most Western states have seen little active Democratic campaigning during the primary season, outside of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona, some of the less populous, but growing states could be important destinations in the general election.

“I really don’t see from a timing perspective that the Western states will get as much attention as I think they will get in the general election,” Duffy said.

Still, Western Democrats will help decide whether Clinton can escape her “wife of Bill” baggage and Obama can surmount his newbie status.

“If the Democratic nominee is Obama or Hillary Clinton I don’t think that’s particularly helpful for the Democrats to carry Montana because neither of them seem to match well with the West,” said Bob Brown, senior fellow at the University of Montana’s Center for the Rocky Mountain West in Missoula.

Brown, a lifelong Montana Republican, said Democrats do have some compelling national issues going for them in ’08 – immigration, Iraq, the budget deficit – but they need the right candidate to make a dent in western states.

“Most voters in Montana would assume they wouldn’t know a single thing about Montana,” Brown said of the two frontrunners.

But in presidential races, Western voters, especially the party faithful, often have more national than regional concerns at heart.

“She’s the frontrunner, she’s a Clinton,” University of Nevada Reno political scientist Eric Herzik has told me. “The same factors that make her the frontrunner nationally… I don’t know that activists in the Democratic party in Nevada locally are any different from activists in the Democratic party nationally.”

In Nevada, two and a half western issues are at play: immigration, Yucca Mountain and something to do with water, Herzik said.

“If you’re looking at issues, the Republican primary in Nevada is more interesting,” Herzik said. “The Democrats are more interesting over personalities.”

Western Democrats used to drive national issues, but that was a while ago, says Pat Williams, a retired nine-term Montana congressman and now, like Brown, a senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West.

“We are now in the transition time when the West is regaining, reclaiming national policy recognition,” Williams said.

The transition is driven – in part – by several new policy groups he has helped found, including the Missoula center.

“Even with Idaho and Utah in it, polling, policy polling in the eight states of the Rocky Mountain West shows this to be one of the most progressive policy regions in America,” Williams said.

Both Clinton and Obama have a chance in the West if they hit the right stride, he said.

	“Even with Idaho and Utah in it, polling, policy polling in the eight states of the Rocky Mountain West shows this to be one of the most progressive policy regions in America.” -Pat Williams, former congressman, senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West.

“What Westerners are going to like about Hillary when they get a close look is that she is tougher than any of the guys,” Williams said. “She doesn’t abide insults easily, nor foolishness.”

He should know. The New York senator has chewed him out twice, once when she was First Lady and he tried to rush her failed health care package to a vote.

Williams said Obama, on the other hand, has a Reagan-like hope about him that could give him clout in the West.

“If he can figure a way to talk to Westerners about hope he’ll hit a chord because this is tomorrow country,” Williams said.

Obama’s recent aggressiveness in campaigning against Clinton is helping him in Western states, he added.

Western states have plenty of experience electing women, and though the African American vote is not strong in the West, Obama is not seen as a classic African American candidate, Williams said.

“He is an inspirational figure to a lot of people and a lot of people in Nevada are very, very curious about him,” said David Cohen, Obama’s deputy state director in Nevada.

Earlier this year, at an Obama event in Boise, many regular folks – not just activist Democrats or even "new Dems” – described Obama as “fresh” and “refreshing.” Obama has since opened an office in Boise and sent a campaign worker to staff it.

Though the figures are low, Obama has picked up more campaign cash than Clinton in six of the eight Mountain states, according to third quarter campaign finance reports. And he has out raised Clinton by almost $300,000 in the Western states with a very strong bankroll in Colorado.

Clinton, however, has pulled in a good deal of cash in Nevada – almost $300,000 more than Obama. And Nevada is where both campaigns are focusing much energy on the Jan. 19 caucus. The Democratic candidates debate on Thursday in Las Vegas that could prove to be a watershed campaign event.

The Clinton campaign is the best political organization Nevada has ever had, according to Rory Reid, Clinton’s Western issues advisor and chairman of her campaign in Nevada.

Several other western political watchers noted the breadth and aggressiveness of the Clinton operation in Nevada.

“I don’t think that there is any question that Nevada is the key to unlocking the Mountain West for the Democratic party,” Reid told me in an interview earlier this year.

Reid, a Clark County commissioner and son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said that Clinton has pulled together groups of African American, Hispanic and Asian American voters in Nevada including some key endorsements.

Obama officials believe these groups are comprised of soft voters, that the polls are flawed and that Obama supporters will represent the grassroots at caucus meetings.

But Clinton leads recent polls in Nevada by a large margin, with up to 51 percent of likely caucus goers giving her the nod. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is running second and Obama third.

Party activists in other states, including Williams in Montana, are still waiting for calls from the candidates. Some Democrats are already worrying that a Hillary Clinton nomination will whip up such a GOP furor that it will cost the party local support in their conservative western states and may hurt candidates lower down on the ticket.

Republican candidates out raised Democrats in the West by almost $3 million so far this year.

While Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are in play for Democrats this election, Arizona is on the table and Montana could swing. Democrats in Idaho, Utah and Wyoming don’t expect much attention, save a photo op at Sun Valley.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson should have an edge in the West – he is the leading candidate in his own state, and the top Democratic fundraiser in the Rockies – but he lags in national polls and has said he will spend his time building support in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Both Clinton and Obama seem to think their time has come.

“I believe that this is her moment in history,” Clinton strategist Rory Reid said.

And Cohen on Obama: “He’s talking about the right things for this moment in history.”

That’s a lot of talk about history in Pat Williams’ “Tomorrow Country.”

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