New West Analysis
Did Tea Party Blow it for GOP in Key Races?
Tea Party enthusiasm rallied voters. But GOP losses in Colorado and Nevada offer cautionary tales about the dangers of Tea Party excess.By David Frey, 11-04-10
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| Incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., fended off a Tea Party challenger with charges he was too extreme. | |
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In the last weeks before the election, Sen. Michael Bennet was crisscrossing his home state of Colorado, stumping in big cities and small towns, trying to extract every vote he could from any corner he could find it.
The race between he and his challenger Ken Buck, a Republican and Tea Party favorite, was neck-and-neck. Bennet, a Democrat, claimed internal polling showed him ahead, but other polls showed the two deadlocked, and the national mood seemed was poised to boot out Democrat incumbents like him.
Appearing in the back of a brewpub in Glenwood Springs, Bennet drove home a message he was making in stop after stop. He portrayed himself as the moderate candidate and Buck as extreme, and Buck’s talk of privatizing Social Security and ending student loans as “crazy.”
“If we do everything we’re supposed to do, we will win this seat,” he told supporters.
The strategy worked. Both candidates went to bed Tuesday night with the race in a tossup. They woke up Wednesday to find Bennet with a widening lead. It was one of a few races that Republicans lost by a hair’s breadth and raised questions about the Tea Party.
The movement undoubtedly was effective in rallying momentum behind the Republican tide. Exit polls showed two in five Americans identified themselves with the movement. But did the Tea Party cost Republicans the Senate by running candidates that were too extreme or unqualified in races a mainstream candidate could have won?
“The US Senate was the Republicans to win in this election,” said University of Denver political scientist Peter Hanson. “I think the fact that they nominated Sharron Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck in Colorado and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware all led to them losing races that they should have won.”
Colorado and Nevada offer cautionary tales for the Tea Party.
Nevada
“The bottom line is, candidates still matter and the individual dynamics of the state still matter,” said Jon Ralston, a political columnist for the Las Vegas Sun and longtime state political observer. “A better candidate could have beat Harry Reid.”
Reid, the Senate majority leader, is unpopular and uncharismatic. Las Vegas’ economy is among the hardest hit in the country. Its unemployment rate is the highest in the nation. But Angle, who reveled in thumping Nevada’s GOP establishment, left a wake of controversial statements and nasty ads that many took to be racist.
Reid succeeded in rallying the Democratic base behind him while convincing others that Angle was too extreme, a message he took to his victory speech Tuesday night.
“Nevada chose hope over fear,” he said. “Nevada chose to move forward, not backwards.”
Colorado
Bennet followed a similar playbook, rallying the base while trying to peel away the center. He narrowly pulled it off, joining Reid in a small club of Democratic incumbents who won reelection.
Like Angle, Buck enjoyed strong Tea Party support. But stumbles, like comparing homosexuality to alcoholism, hurt him. And stances that appealed to his base, including his strong anti-abortion stance, allowed him to be painted as out of the mainstream.
“I do think Republicans hurt themselves by nominating a candidate who was open to accusations of being extreme,” Hanson said.
The Tea Party may also be able to take some blame for Republicans losing the Colorado governor’s mansion. Their support for Dan Maes pitted an inexperienced candidate against Denver’s popular Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper. In the end, Maes struggled to get a double-digit share of the vote.
“On the one hand, they were very successful in having their candidates nominated by the Republicans for the governorship and the Senate,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. “On the other hand, the person they came up with – and they mostly recognized that – was beyond unqualified. He had so many problems in his background that he completely lost credibility. I think they lost an opportunity to elect a conservative. I think a conservative with a message may have won that race for the governorship.”
Questions about Maes’ background and integrity led many supporters to flee, laying the groundwork for anti-immigration firebrand Tom Tancredo to run an outsider’s campaign as the American Constitution Party candidate.
Tancredo’ campaign gained momentum. He became the effective conservative candidate, and late polls showed him close to Hickenlooper. But Hickenlooper, confident in his lead, mostly ignored his opponents and sailed to an easy win without going negative.
Lessons
Even Sarah Palin’s blessing proved a mixed blessing for candidates. Most of her picks won, but many were in safe races. In some key races, including Angle’s and Tancredo’s, they stumbled.
Republicans can thank the Tea Party for a groundswell movement that pushed voters to the polls. But the mixed results in high-profile races raise questions about the GOP and Tea Party’s future together.
“The challenge for the Republican Party going forward is whether or not the establishment can meet the Tea Party and come up with some accommodation that allows for better nominees in 2012,” Ciruli said.
That’s a challenge, he said, because the Tea Party is by its nature antiestablishment, and its candidates are often outsiders by design.
“They’re going to get some blame for not winning the Senate,” Ciruli said, “but the Republican Party can’t ignore them. By and large, the Tea Party agenda is the Republican Party agenda: bringing austerity to the federal government.”
Starting next year, he said, the Tea Party will be a stronger force in the Republican Party than ever before, he said.
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Comments
Owner of three ranches herself, Rep. Lummis, R-WY claimed that elderly ranch owners were so worried about the resumption of the estate tax, that they were seriously considering going off meds or medical treatment, so as to die before 12/31 and be able to pass on the ranch without paying higher taxes.
Lummis got mentioned on Keith Olbermann's very last edition of "Worst Persons in the World" for her hyperbole. As Keith mentioned, the estate tax only applies to estates valued $3.5 million or more, and there are still many ways to beat the estate tax. Lummis was fear-mongering, per usual.
Speaking of Lummis, I invite New West readers to periodically peruse the House roll call votes website at http://clerk.house.gov/legislative/legvotes.html
You won't have to click through many bills before you find votes where Lummis has been in the minority of her own party, either voting "No" on those rare bills that have true bipartisanship support, or voting "Yes" on such extreme whackadoodle bills that even fellow members of the House Tea Party Caucus vote "No."
Lummis is increasingly showing that she's no mainstream Republican.
What will she do as a member of a Republican-dominated House?
As long as extreme is the subject, why on earth would the President need 40 planes and several warships to make a trip to India? Is he planning to invade? Has he ever heard of GoToMeeting.com?
I consider politicians who speak of spending money in terms of millions, billions, and trillions instead of dollars extreme.
The TEA party is the best thing that has happened for a very long time. Any one of them were better for the country than the senile doddering old fools being wheeled around in wheel chairs with a blank smile on their faces.
even the vile olberman, the worlds worstest excuse for a journalist and the other msnbc bigots could not slow them down.
the fact that the repubs and the tea party didnt manipulate the candidates in the close senate races to reflect the " smarter choice" to take control of the senate is a feather in their cap. instead of doing what the political back room machines would recommend they let the people choose.
the tsunami is just beginning.
the "worstest" was a joke. sense of humor please. i think your hate and lack of tolerance may be controlling you.
Can't wait for his book on Hemingway to come out.
Trust me, Barack Hussain Obama, Harry Reid, Barney Frank, and Nancy Pelosi, the fab four, are not asking forgiveness, no matter how diligently they tried to destroy the economy. Their only mistake, as far as they’re concerned, is they didn’t do a good enough job convincing we poor unwashed imbeciles of their superiority in running the economy…opps, I meant ruining the economy. They got a slap in the face on November 2nd, and, like all good politicians, took it as a misdirected pat on the back. The old saying for we country boys is, “don’t piss down my neck and tell me it’s raining.” That’s exactly what the fab four are trying to do. Don’t let them. Don’t look back. Charge forward.
Let’s not forget that it was under their watch, with Obama as a mere senator, that four bedrooms and two and a half baths were dropped in the pot of anyone willing to lie about their income (and the republicans stood by watching, fat, dumb, and happy); and the exorbitant prices resulting were slathered on the poor unsuspecting who, even though telling the truth about income, bought into the “American dream” and found themselves owing more that their new house was actually worth.
I’ve been a homebuilder. A house is worth the land cost, the land improvement cost, the cost of construction, and a fair profit. If it’s appreciating 25% a year, trust me, there’s something wrong. If a thing looks to be too good to be true….
Don’t expect the fab four to take an iota of the blame for the destruction they wrought upon the economy and the employment in this country. We, and particularly those new to the house and senate, have to rise above their indifference, and get something done to reduce the cost of government, to get government off the backs of business and you and I, and to get government out of the way of the free enterprise system.
And the fact we, as a country, left the two of the four in office, when we had the chance to drop them in the grease, causes me to lose sleep at night.
Wake up, America, stay awake. Keep pounding on congress and try to make your voice heard all the way to the White House. All I saw in the presidents reaction to the elections was, “I didn’t do a good enough job educating you poor dumb hicks.”
http://fromthepeapatch.com
Go Tea Baggers, Go! You'll be the demise of the right wing wing nuts by showing just how nutty they really are. Oh, and how ineffective they will be at actually governing.
I fear that the Tea Party will think they received a great mandate just like Bush in 2000 (48% of the vote) and Bush in 2004 (51% of the vote). That means that half the country disagrees with you! The Tea Party couldn't even knock out Harry Reid. Nobody likes him but Nevada still thought he was a lesser evil than his Tea Party opponent. In Alaska Miller may squeak out a victory with 35% percent of the vote. Not exactly overwhelming numbers when 2 out of 3 people dislike you.
I predict that within two years most of these newly elected Tea Partiers will be sucked right into the Washington establishment, doing all the things they campaigned against.
if that is true then the tea party should morph right into the main stream of washington, the repubs, and the dems.
nobody has been governing there.
I suppose that depends on your definition of 'governing'. I to base my opinions on the best info I can find and trust. From what I understand, the Obama admin has been one of the most productive in history, as far as legislative action. He was elected on the platforms of getting troops out of Iraq, health care reform, not raising taxes on middle class, moving our energy policy into the 21st century, etc. I believe he's accomplished many of these things and more, including reducing the number of illegal immigrants crossing the borders. I appreciate that some may disagree with this line of 'governing', but I view it as 'governing' none the less.
My knowledge of most tea party candidates (and Republicans, and yes, some Democrats) leaves me wondering where they stand on the complicated issues facing our country. Cutting taxes and spending is a great campaign platform, but when it comes right down to it, how will they accomplish this? I don't believe 'cutting taxes' across the board is particularly realistic given the current deficit (some of which must be attributed to the previous administration). Neither is continuing the defense budget at its current size. Neither is cutting funding for important social programs (again, 'important' is certainly up to interpretation and debate).
I just don't understand how the Tea Party platform can address these complicated issues. Which is why I don't think they would be particularly effective at governing. Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Dem's and Obama have all the answers either.
And I don't find the angry, irrational rhetoric particularly appealing either, particularly toward those of us who don't necessarily agree with their social and religious views (abortion, gay rights, what is means to be a 'patriot'). If they could tone that down and explain what their plan(s) actually is (are), I would be less likely to view most of them as 'whackadoodle'. Still love that word though :)
The only reason the governorship stayed was because McInnis imploded himself and Penry was already out, leaving Maes. The Tea Party base really can't take credit or blame for that.
As for Buck, Jane Norton was in the Bill Owens mushball country club set, fine, but she would have probably lost anyway. Why? Last I heard, Colorado was the locus for an outrageous amount of extraparty PAC operations left over from the Gill team strategy of 2006. The impact of independent attack operations cannot be discounted.
Finally, I'm getting tired of you leftie weasels slagging the tea partiers (teabaggers...leave it to YOU to know what it means, while I quite honestly did not prior to it becoming leftstream slang) as racists.
I for one am delighted that Allen West won his race in Florida and quite unhappy that Perlmutter won over Ryan Frazier. Skin color? Matters much less than what's inside.
The housing crisis started LONG before the Obama administration came on board--long before Obama was even a Senator--and it was mainly the result of deregulation that was supported by several Republican administrations--you know the ones that operated under the philosophy the Republicans and TEA baggers still espouse that government just needs to get out of the way of business and everything will be fine. All I've seen as a result of that philosophy is that the hard-working middle class has been all but obliterated and the rich have gotten richer and richer while the poor get poorer and poorer.
And excuse me, but WHO was it that got us into TWO wars? The Obama administration and the Democrats can't be blamed for that--yet the Republicans seem to be trying their best to do so. And HOW much have those wars cost us? And how are we going to get out of them? Only the Democrats seem to be working on moving in that direction. If the Republicans had remained in power we'd probably be in a third war right now.
I believe the Republicans had complete control over both the House and the Senate and the White House during many of the years that the economy was falling apart. The fact that the Democrats gained a very slight majority in the House the last two years of the Bush administration seems, in the eyes of the Republicans, to be enough to blame a heck of a lot on the that party, while apparently absolving the Republican party of any responsibility for the years they were in complete control much less those last two years where they still had most of the control of what happened in government.
I don't understand how people think Obama could have solved the problems the Republicans spent years creating in 18 months. I don't understand why some people can't see that the increase in the deficit since he became President has been entirely related to emergency spending to deal with the mess the Bush years created--which cause much of the economy to crash not only in this country but all over the world. Where do they think we'd be right now without those emergency programs? All I hear is criticisms of what the Democrats have attempted to do--in spite of their continuing attempts to obstruct any progress--and I've NEVER heard any of them suggest alternative programs. Sarah Palin may be great at telling jokes, but I've yet to hear an intelligent plan--with any kind of meat to it--come out or her mouth or that of any of the people she's supported. The Democrats at least admit to not having all of the answers and they are in mostly uncharted waters.
My biggest fear now is that the Republicans and their crazy cousins in the Tea Party are vowing to ensure that the Obama administration can't accomplish anything in the next two years. That's NOT what they owe the American people and that's NOT going to solve ANY of the huge problems facing this country and the world today. We need people in government who are sincerely interested in working for a better country and a better world.
I was a very hard-working government employee (state and federal agencies) for 28 years and I am now among the many who have lost my job (3 times) due to years of budget cuts. I have been forced into an early retirement and am doing my best to find a way to pay the bills and keep a roof over my head. I did all of the right things for 28 years and didn't even file for unemployment because I hoped I could find another way to support myself. That's how much I believe in being self-reliant. But I will NEVER support the Republican party or the Tea party and the hypocritical misinformation they insist on spreading. I will never understand how people can buy this crap and I fear for our country when I see how many people are buying it.
I think one thing that is badly needed in the country's struggling educational system is much more emphasis on 2 things: how our government works, and how to distinguish truth from lies, black and white areas from grey areas--particularly with regard to what we see and hear on the TV, radio and on the internet. If we don't educate people better in these areas we will see more and more misinformation being accepted truth, and people who are less and less able to think intelligently for themselves or make good decisions at the polls.
Those "senile doddering old fools" you spoke of? Again, Toddy, check your facts. All those "new" repubs who are going to be infecting the white house have been around for 20-30 years under different titles. They're calling them "new and fresh" because they know people are so stupid they're going to fall for it. Check it out there Toddy
Under her own name, Marion spoke assertively, with feigned authority, on ranching and food production and so forth; but, the irony there is that she really has no deep ranching background. Her family raised some sheep (those of us who consider ourselves traditional cattlemen really aren't comfortable with sheepherders speaking on our behalf) and then went into raising "ranch" mink for the fur trade.
She acquired at least some of her deep hatred of "liberals" from the fact that she sees "liberalism" as the force that hurt the fur trade and put her relatives out of their lucrative niche. The fact is that raising weasels in a metal shed full of wire cages has little to do with ranching, whether you call the product "ranch" mink or not, hence Marion's nickname as the "weasel" rancher. Neither does raising weasels for their fur give Marion much experience as a champion of food production, unless you eat the weasel carcasses post-skinning, which raises the question of whether you are what you eat.
It's ironic that Todd (AKA Marion) would be calling anybody "senile doddering old fools" one minute and then, in other postings, assailing her detractors for being mean to a 73 year old lady by exposing her use of Todd's identity.
The bottom line is that arguing with Todd (AKA Marion) is a waste of time; there's nobody, nobody real at least, in there.
I never met Mrs Norton but from listening to her and reading up on her record I came to the conclusion that she was a typical political hack without much to recommend her than he connections.
Senator Bennet in my several meetings with him and phone conversations comes across as a thoughtful, experienced man with the ability to make sound judgments based on the concept that problems can be solved without injecting any kind of ideology into the situation. I like that. I like pragmatic people.
They are using easily persuaded right wingers to do their fighting for them. Pro-corportae, pro war, anti regulation, anti taxes for big corps etc.
They claim they hate the big banks etc. yet they are maniuplated to fight for the causes they think they're agianst.
They want society to swing in their favor and the tea party is helping them. Tea baggers love big coporations and agree with reducing any and all regualtions or taxes on them. Why do they love them becuase they thin kthey will rpvode jobs. And whe nthe corporations outsource "their jobs" overseas they blame liberlas for "overregualtion"
Look at the recent tar sands highway 12 fiasco. All the equipment manufacturing was outsourced to Korea instead of in ID or MT.
But the tea baggers rush to Exxon Mobil's defense cliaming that if there was'nt so much regualtion in the US we could've manufactured the eqip. here.
WRONG exxonmobil cares about profits period. They wil manufacture their equip. wherever they have to pay the least. They don't care about America or it's economies or it's workers. Now they don't even have to defend their atrocious anti0-american actions. Now they have the the party to do the defending for them. All you tea baggers are being taken advantage of your just too stupid, and riled up with bigoted hatred to know it.
The other thing that annoys me here, as usual, is how the Left always calls for civility and all that other manneristic whatnot, yet takes the cheap shots on full auto. Case in point being the new creature, Ridgerunnah (must be from back East, eh) yarfing on the teabagger angle and calling New West right-wing? Psht.
I still think David's analysis is lacking and stereotyped. While there's an issue with the arch-Right picking "less-electable" primary winners, the arch-Left is no better in that regard.
Overall, tho, it's a wash. I'd rather have hardcores, because then there really IS a choice to be made on Election Day.
Skinner scofs at newwest being kinda right wing. He'll shoew us right wing with his preference for hardcore republicans not softies. Well skinner despite the fact you think your fighting for the little guy with the tea party...your not.
You can continue to spin you leftie jargon, but the numbers don't lie:
Number of House seats rated “tossup” by the Cook Political Report before Tuesday: 50
Won by Republicans: 32
Won by Democrats: 10
Number of House seats won by Tea Party candidates: 39
Number of Blue Dogs seeking re-election: 48
Number winning: 23
Number losing: 22
(*The rate will be 86 percent if all the incumbents in undecided races win; if they all lose, it will be 83 percent.)
Health Problems?
Number of House Democrats from districts McCain won who voted in favor of health care reform: 17
Number winning re-election: 1
Number losing: 15
Number of House Democrats from districts McCain won who voted against health care reform: 23
Number winning re-election: 8
Number losing: 14
Star Power
Number of candidates Sarah Palin endorsed in congressional races: 33
Number winning: 21
Number losing: 9
Number of congressional candidates President Obama held fundraisers or rallies for: 12
Number who won: 4
Number who lost: 5
Person with the most years in Congress who lost: 36 (James Oberstar) Dem
Current number of black GOP members of Congress: 0
Number of black GOP members in next Congress: 2
And don’t forget the 18 or 19 States where legislatures flipped from Democrats to Republican.
Then there is the sweep of Republican Governors, two of them women and minorities to boot ya they were elected by Tea Baggers.
Ya those damn racist Tea Baggers they even elected an African-American in Florida.
I imagine all you lefties will call him an "Uncle Tom" or something worse.
and bush and those two wars have nothing to do with the "lib crash"
Delusional is all I can muster.