A roundup of the confusion
Field Day for Political Analysts
By Jill Kuraitis, 4-23-08
Trying to analyze yesterday’s Pennsylvania primary win for Hillary Clinton has political analysts jumping up and down like schoolkids with their hands in the air saying, “I know! I know!”
Conflicting commentary dominates the news cycle, with everything from she-won-but-it-doesn’t-matter to she’s-inevitable-get-used-to-it.
The conventional wisdom that Democrats do it again - drilled themselves into the ground without hitting water for the thirsty faithful who just want an electable nominee – contrasts with, of course, the line that Republicans have their guy and early panic among conservatives that McCain’s so-called liberal views weren’t acceptable has almost jelled into their typical, disciplined united front.
But analysis is more complex than conventional.
Dick Polman, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s political columnist, puts the assumed attitude this way: “Six weeks of bowling and Bittergate and Pastorgate and nonexistent Bosnian snipers....and for what? The Pennsylvania results have essentially changed nothing. There is seemingly no cure for the chronic Democratic migraine - and the fear, among so many members, that they are tearing themselves asunder.”
But at least one writer, Gerald Seib of the Wall Street Journal, thinks the Democrats’ long period of disagreement is an advantage because “there is an intangible benefit to fighting through all the primaries: Like two-a-day practices at a football training camp, the process develops a kind of toughness that is beneficial.”
Analyzing voter demographics in Politico, David Paul Kuhn has this: “There were few surprises in Pennsylvania, according to the exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for television networks and The Associated Press. Clinton held about 65 percent of white women and about 55 percent of the key swing bloc of white men, a strong showing though slightly weaker than her Ohio showing.”
But also this: “Young Democrats made up only 12 percent of voters, however. In comparison, fully 22 percent were age 65 and older. Clinton won more than six in 10 senior voters while winning a majority of all voters 40 and older.”
But Millenial Makeover thinks younger people will have more influence in the general election.
Tom Bevan of Time and RealClearPolitics bravely comes out in favor of confusion with: “So is Clinton’s 10-point win a “game changer?” Depends on who you talk to, I suppose. Obama supporters and the Obama campaign will argue that nothing has changed: Clinton is still trailing in pledged delegates, trailing in number of states won, and trailing in the popular vote.”
May 6 will bring primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which could be decisive. With momentum now at a baffled - and baffling - stall, the assumption that Obama is favored in both states is more than in question.
Read more confounding analysis at RealClearPolitics.
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Comments
Its all good except for the poor traditional media trying to find a theme and continuing to make inane comments regarding trivial matters which the public will continue to ignore. Dems will continue to dominate the headlines towards Obama's eventual victory. And McSame twists in the wind.
It's often said in the business world that a bad decision is better than no decision. Which I guess is the basis for the Republican's choice of how to award delegates?
I am still laughing. The honeymoon trampoline or was it a spring board? The need for some floor exercise time. Judges with paddle with numbers on them. "And the Russian judge gave Putin a 10.1!!!!" "I spent the summer at our retirement dascha with her flipping out over me."
And if you think our process is anymore refined, not dominated by super alpha males, you didn't look at the trophy brides earlier in the primary season. Fred Thompson's wife would fail a Coast Guard stability test. And Biden's hair plugs, all spaced like a Plum Creek thinning job, holding his very young children in his very old arms. Chris Dodd with his arm candy wife and nanny cared for kids. Even McCain with the stunning blonde AND her inheritance. McCain and Kerry. Those Navy guys know how to pick 'em. Ya just gotta love the egos that run the world.
So with this all in mind, Bill Clinton is coming to Oreygawn this weekend to advance his pride and joy. My first inclination was to hire someone to play the song that has the words "lady with the blue dress, blue dress on" over and over on one of those old time trucks with the war surplus speakers pointed port and starboard, like were around when I was a kid. Better sense says no.
I will tell you this about Bill Clinton. He has had protection around him his whole life. He has led a sheltered life. He never had a workaday job in his life. The reason I know that is he points his finger at people when he talks, and sometimes jabs that finger at them, right at their chest. In this end of the world, if you did that enough, someone was going to poke you, hard, in the nose. Drop you like a hot rock. That is a fighting pose, a threatening stance. That jabbing finger is an invitation to have your snot locker realigned. His is too straight, has never been hit. He continues to point and poke. He never learned that lesson, is less a man for it. And that is why many men do not find him able to lead, and have no inclination to elect his wife and have him around again jabbing that index finger in their collective chests. Hillary was the smarty pants spouse, and who needs Bill to play that role in another of the same old same old?
And nope, nothing will be decisive until the convention. Unless Obama wins them all handily.