Flu News and Blues

Flu Update: H1N1 Cases Down, But is Uptick Ahead?

By Amy Linn, 11-19-09

	Flickr photo by Davide Taviani.

As flu pandemics go, H1N1 sometimes seems hard to compute, given all the information flooding our way. Is it a panic? An impending storm? A party theme?

Yes, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports that some people are hosting “swine flu parties” where people who know someone with H1N1 purposely hang out and try to get infected. Their goal is to get a mild case and gain natural immunity, so they won’t catch a more dangerous version later on. Health officials, not surprisingly, say this doesn’t work and isn’t smart. “While the disease ... has been mild for many people, it has been severe and even fatal for others,” the federal health agency says. “There is no way to predict with certainty what the outcome will be for an individual or, equally important, for others to whom the intentionally infected person may spread the virus.”

Meanwhile, as news about the flu continues to spread at viral speed, a Montana health specialist offers a few facts to help put things in perspective. Elton Mosher is the influenza surveillance coordinator with the Department of Public Health and Human Services. Here’s his view of the flu, plus statistics from the World Health Organization and CDC:

-- The H1N1 pandemic has now infected as many as 22 million people around the world. But the majority of people get mild cases and recover without medical care. “Most people have a mild case, and they don’t even come in to see the doctor,” says Mosher.

-- That said, the severe cases are dangerous. According to Dr. Anne Schuchat at a CDC briefing Nov. 12, an estimated 63,000 to 153,000 people have been hospitalized worldwide, and as many as 6,100 people have died, about 4,000 of them in the United States. The deaths have chiefly occurred in children and young adults—“sparing the elderly, very different from seasonal flu,” Schuchat said. “In children under 18, we estimate 8 million children have been ill with influenza, 36,000 hospitalized, and 540 children have died from this pandemic influenza.” (Exact numbers are hard to come by because of the complicated nature of tallying the information.)

-- In Montana, there have been 691 confirmed cases and 9,500 suspected cases overall. An estimated 12 people have died.

-- Comparatively speaking, the H1N1 virus is not as deadly as others. Seasonal flu alone kills tens of thousands annually. “Each year, 20,000-to-40,000 people die from the flu,” says Mosher. The 1918-19 Spanish flu epidemic was estimated to have killed 50 million people or more.

-- The number of H1N1 cases in Montana spiked in October, Mosher says, and then slowed down in recent weeks. But things aren’t likely to stay calm, since the seasonal flu season is due to start in December.

What can everyone do to stay healthy? Here’s what the CDC recommends:

* Flu is spread by coughs and sneezes, or by touching a surface that holds the virus and then touching your nose or mouth. To keep safe, cough and sneeze into a sleeve or cover your nose and mouth with a tissue. Throw the tissue in the trash afterward. Then make sure to wash your hands with soap and water, or use an alcohol-based hand rub.
* In general, wash your hands often, and avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth.
* Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
* Stay home if you’re sick with a flu-like illness (except to get medical care and necessities). Remain at home until your fever has been gone for at least 24 hours. Wait until your fever is gone naturally, without the use of fever-reducing medications.
* Don’t send children to school if they have a flu-like illness.

For more information, go to flu.gov.

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