Rocky Mountain Fires

Hot Topic? Predictions for the 2010 Fire Season

Parts of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho could enjoy below-average fire potential; rest of the Rocky Mountains shaping up to see normal activity.

By Bea Gordon, 7-19-10

 
 

In Montana and other parts of the Rocky Mountain West, forests are now losing the moisture stored from spring rains and drying out.  The drier the material, of course, the greater potential there is for fire. Factor in lightening and campfires and summers bring a familiar haze in the mountains that surround us.

In an effort to anticipate the fire patterns, the U.S. Forest Service uses a complex set of equations that result in four predictive outputs that best evaluate the potential for fire. Usually, these outputs follow a typical pattern in any given year and, using reference points of extremely high and low seasons, the USFS is able to gather information regarding spread components, energy release components and burn indices, among others.

So what does all this mean for fire season 2010?

“So far,” says Rick Floch, Fire Management Officer for the Bitterroot National Forest, “we’re in a normal season.  We had a very wet spring this year, but as we approach higher temperatures, a lot of the Bitterroot is drying out.”

And this means that the fire crews rotating into the Bitterroot will most likely see action in the next few months. The Forest Service operates on a national dispatch system, sending firefighters and staff to areas that need it most. 

The Bitterroot, like other parts of the Rocky Mountain West, see a later start to fire season than, say, Arizona and New Mexico. “But as we dry out, we realize we have need of more people and are more reluctant to send them out. Typically we staff enough for an ongoing fire plus one more additional fire,” said Floch.

Throughout the spring and summer, Forest Service staffers measure moisture levels at both high and low altitudes in order to better understand the forest’s development into the oncoming fire season.  “Right now higher elevations are wet although the lower elevations have begun to dry out,” reports Floch, who notes that the higher-elevation fires are typically more difficult to fight due to limited accessibility and abundance of material to burn.

But not all fires will get water. Floch points out that “fire has a natural role and in the Western U.S. and it is a very significant one.” Modern wildfire fighting has shifted from containment to a more inclusive look at fire’s restorative capacity.  “In a way we are torn between two lovers: Some things we need to burn, but we obviously want to protect things of value as well as preserve certain areas.”

Fire prediction is neither easy, nor conclusive, because of constantly changing variables that go into its calculation.  Keeping that caveat in mind, here’s a brief preview of what to expect for the 2010 season for the Rockies according to the National Interagency Fire Department:
• Average fire season throughout the Northern Rockies.
• Below normal potential fire in northern Idaho, far western Wyoming, and western Montana through mid-July due to a cool, wet spring that has shortened the fire season at high altitudes.
• At low elevations, fire fuel is above normal and should burn out by late July. 
• La Niña will likely lead to a higher frequency of lightening in the Northern Rockies for the summer.
• Best predictions indicate a short, active fire season in August and September across the Rocky Mountain West that will likely diminish from late September to early October.



Like this story? Get more! Sign up for our free newsletters.

NEW WEST FEATURES                                                                 More>>

Advertisement

Comments

By Dave Skinner, 7-19-10
By bearbait, 7-19-10
By Fotoware, 7-20-10
By bearbait, 7-20-10

Comment policy:

NewWest.Net encourages robust and lively, but civil participation from our readers. By posting here, you agree to the NewWest.Net terms of service. You agree to keep your comments on topic, respectful and free of gratuitous profanity. Contributions that engage in personal attacks, racism, sexism, bigotry, hatred or are otherwise patently offensive will be subject to removal.

Other than using a filter that scans for comment spam, we do not moderate contributions before they are posted and we do not review every thread, so we ask that you help us in keeping the discussions civil and appropriate. Please email info@newwest.net to notify us of comments that may violate these guidelines. Thanks for your help and cooperation. Click here for some tips on how to best interact on NewWest.Net.

Your Comment

Name

Email

Remember my name and email address.

Notify me of follow-up comments.

 

Marketplace