Diary Of A Mad Voter: Heath Haussamen

If Richardson Doesn’t Win In Iowa, What Next?

By Heath Haussamen, 12-26-07

The next eight days are going to be the most critical in Bill Richardson’s political life.

His longshot bid for the presidency is either going to get a huge boost in Iowa on Jan. 3 or it’s going to die. Most likely, Richardson will finish fourth, or even fifth, and the question will become how long the governor stays in the race before returning to New Mexico for the legislative session that begins Jan. 15.

Richardson’s effort on the campaign trail has been valiant. He has worked at least as hard as the other candidates. His campaign has produced brilliant television commercials. He has raised a respectable amount of money.

But his support in polls has fluctuated between insignificant and marginally significant since he entered the race in January. He came closest to breaking into the top tier of candidates in June, but repeated misstatements made him appear inarticulate and his self-deprecating explanations for those statements were goofy. His support waned.

Most of Richardson’s volunteers are working harder than ever, and many New Mexicans are in Iowa to help. But some are giving up. One who was a field organizer for Richardson in Iowa recently quit to work on a congressional campaign in New Mexico. Some volunteers have moved to other campaigns.

That’s not surprising. Richardson doesn’t appear to have the support he needs to place third or better in Iowa, which is what he says must happen for him to have a chance at the nomination.

That doesn’t mean he should be counted out. Richardson’s only previous loss in a political race was in 1980 to former U.S. Rep. Manuel Lujan, R-N.M. A week before the election, Richardson trailed in a poll 65-18 percent, but he ended up losing by less than one percent.

There is a big difference between rural New Mexico in 1980 and Iowa in the 21st Century, and I’d like to think polling is more accurate 27 years later. It’s likely that Richardson is going to lose big on Jan. 3, but we can’t say it’s certain.

What if he loses? He has also lost control in New Mexico while he focused on the race. After ruling with an iron fist during his four years, a distracted Richardson was outmaneuvered by the state Senate during this year’s session.

If he doesn’t place third or better in Iowa on Jan. 3 and New Hampshire on Jan. 8, Richardson is going to have to decide whether to remain in the race through Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 and hope for the best - and miss most of the 30-day legislative session - or drop out of the race and return to New Mexico in time to attempt to retake control of state government.

Richardson insists that, if he loses the race, he will finish out his second and final gubernatorial term that ends in 2010. If that’s true, he would have good reason to return quickly. Losing further control of state government in 2008 could make the rest of his tenure frustrating.

But many believe he would seek to become vice president or secretary of state. Look for him to keep his options open. And don’t quite count him out of the presidential race, at least not yet.

Editor’s note: Heath Haussamen’s weekly blogs are part of NewWest.Net/Politics’ “Diary of a Mad Voter” feature, a group blog, published in partnership with the Denver Post’s Politics West intended give a glimpse into the hearts and minds of several independent-minded voters and thinkers in the Rocky Mountain West in the ‘08 election cycle. For more columns check in with www.newwest.net/madvoter. And for more information on each of the bloggers, click here.

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