watching the polls
Is McCain Really Down in Montana?
By Kellyn Brown, Flathead Beacon, 10-24-08
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A poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings and released Thursday shows that Democrat Barack Obama is now leading Republican John McCain by 4 points in Montana. A day prior, the Associated Press reported that nationwide Obama’s lead on McCain had dwindled to 1-percentage point, well within its poll’s margin of error. Neither can be right. Right?
At Real Clear Politics, which averages the latest polls, McCain still leads in Montana by 3.3 percentage points. Earlier this month, Research 200 found that the Republican was up by 4; ARG had him up 5; and Rasmussen showed an 8-point lead. The September polls were even more lopsided, with three consecutive polls giving McCain a double-digit lead. If Obama has really made up about 15 points in the last several weeks, it would be a truly amazing feat. It would be on same level as McCain’s remarkable nationwide comeback, which the AP explained this way.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The AP’s poll differed so substantially from nearly every other nationwide poll that it caused a minor row among, you guessed it, the pollsters. John Zogby, who has Obama up 10 over McCain, told the Boston Herald, “The AP poll is not only an outlier, it’s just preposterous!”
He then criticized the wire service for not properly counting college-age voters. At Real Clear Politics, Obama is still up by 7.1 points nationwide, a sizable number. And a national poll by FOX News released the same day as the AP’s had Obama up 9.
In Montana, it’s hard for me to believe Obama will win by 4 percentage points on Nov. 4. If he does, then this election will be won in a landslide. Then again, is this race really tied nationwide? Who knows? When the pollsters are fighting amongst themselves, and their results vary this much, it’s hard to believe any of them have figured out a reliable formula.
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Comments
If you were aware of the AP poll, it is hard to believe you didn't know how crappy their statistical model was.
Take this person's "analysis" with a grain of salt.
To the boards: Starting between September 8 and October 1, McCain's 11 point lead slipped 3 points (Rasmussen). Then, between September 22 and October 16, a second national firm found McCain's lead sliding 9 points, but retaining a 4 point lead (Research 2000). Then MSU started polling for 4 days, ending October 20, and found a 4 point Obama lead.
All available public data shows McCain's once-substantial lead in Montana has narrowed and possibly disappeared. Polls are only snapshots in time. These five document six weeks of Montana voter opinion, with three weeks still remaining. It doesn't say what the real poll on Election Day will tell.
No matter how surprising, the race in Montana is effectively tied and the final efforts of the candidates and their supporters will determine the outcome. Similar movement has taken place nationally during this period, showing a clear trend. The overall race could tighten, or continue this pattern. If this trend continues, Montana's polls could be precursors to an Obama electoral landslide.
One final point: Jim Messina, Sen. Baucus' chief of staff, assumed day-to-day leadership of the Obama campaign earlier this summer. While his focus is national, Obama clearly has someone who understands the West and Montana in particular at the highest level of his campaign. Winning Montana would be an enormous coup for the campaign manager and the Senator.
Clearly the American dream has changed so I have to ask myself, - Do I still want to be an American?
What good is American citizenship if it under socialism.
You get your socialist nirvana but my children inherit a country that is populated with people with their hand out.
Socialism is fine for the non-ambitious but I have been talking to my wife about moving the Chile. I don't want my 9 and 12-year-old boys to live next door to those that think big government is responsible for their healthcare, it is a bad lesson. I want my boys to grow up self-reliant.
When America puts hardship on American industry, industry will wisely find a friendlier business climate elswhere. Opportunities are diminishing here as they have in Europe.
I believe Chile will be a happening place, it is like America used to be and the more needy Americans demand of industry the more of them will show up on the foreign shores of promising places like Chile, they will grow, America will atrophy.
Our constitution is what I love about America, not its dirt. There is nice dirt all over the world but what our founding fathers conceived was brilliant, the brilliance of it is what I love and that brilliance is fluid it can go anywhere where people value freedom. Democrats are rejecting the ownership society and Thomas Jefferson and his colleagues would not approve.
My problem is my wife doesn’t want to move that far away from her family, she wants to go to Canada but that doesn’t fix the socialist problem does it.
You socialists will get what you ask for but I bet that after you get it you won’t like it so well.
http://www.free-press.biz/usa/American-Socialism.htm
Yes, socialism's a bitch, especially when it's brought to you by President George W. Bush, who just took over a dozen of the nation's largest (and bankrupt) banks, insurance companies, etc...
Guess what else is bankrupt?
Another good reason to get the heck out of here, Bush legitimized Obama’s Marxist ambitions.
Bush’s transgression doesn’t make Obama’s socialism OK, I speak for myself of course not the 150 million pan handlers that think Obama can fill their pot from an empty treasury.
http://www.free-press.biz/usa/national-debt.htm
P.S. From what I've heard, the the "privatization" of the Chilean Social Security plan didn't go too well, what with all the market losses and whatnot, and there is a lot of civil disrest. McShame's dictator-torturer-terrorist buddy started that privatization gig. Good luck down there...I'd suggest you not wear your McShame-Palin t-shirt.
Chile's Superintendency of Pension Fund Administrators said the profitability of the nation's long-lauded system of five pension funds has been hit hard by a retreat in stock indexes over recent weeks. The value of the holdings of the so-called "A Fund," which heavily invested in shares and is considered the riskiest of the funds, tumbled 11.8 percent in September.
But evidentially the rest of the system is fine, according Bloomberg news that states; Chile Stocks Regain `Bull' Status on Economic Outlook’.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aIOLa_d28LmA&refer=latin_america
Allende, a communist, couldn’t have created a Chilean GDP growth of more than 5% between 1990 and 2007.
At least we know what your price is...
I am glad that Chile is the most successful country in South America.
McCain wasn't negotiating with an enemy of the US like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jung Ill or Hugo Chavez, nor was he the president of the US in his capacity during his thirty-minute visit.
I find it odd that this half our visit with the leader of a country we were friendly with is more upsetting to you that the three years that Obama shared an office with pentagon bomber William Ayers.
I guess some terrorists are OK and others are not in the world of democrats.
I guess it is excusable to democrats if the reason you bomb it is to protest a war.
Timothy McVeigh was only protesting when he did his bombing but I guess that the democrats found that one unacceptable because McVeigh was protesting against Clinton. Both are appalling but Ayers killed under a dozen people so it isn’t as bad I guess.
Ayers participated in the bombings of New York City Police Headquarters in 1970, the United States Capitol building in 1971, and The Pentagon in 1972.
Well comrade I guess anything is OK in the pursuit socialism to correct the wrongs our founding fathers forgot to factor in their haste to make a more perfect union.
Oh yeah, that’s right, our founding fathers didn’t want to repeat the mistakes that were made in James Town, America's seventeenth century experiment with socialism.
So you don’t think Obama is a socialist?
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26913
Good luck with your conspiracy theories. Maybe you can get a place on Ruby Ridge to continue your research into the birth certificates and William Ayers connections.
You think the William Ayers connection is a conspiracy?
America has their head planted so for that they deserve whatever they get!
You are who you affiliate yourself with, Obama's record of affliliation is alarming for me and it shoud be with you but the Ayers conection is not a disqualifier for you because Obama can deliver your world view so his afflilations are merely and inconvience.
There is one conservative blogger I respect and believe, Jon Swift. He wrote about this and all the other stuff Obama has done, like planning since birth to hide his real birth certificate so he could put America under Sharia law.
Swift's explanation of all Obama's sins is broken down in one beautiful post.
http://jonswift.blogspot.com/2008/10/great-moments-in-election-year-blogging.html
I stand corrected!
You are what you swallow
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10082008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/terror_victims_qs_for_barack_132619.htm
But I bet you can explain Annenberg's terrorist ties away by using your earlier "Pinochet" standard: that if a terrorist makes money for right-wing capitalists they are okay.
Interestingly this standard also explains McCain's friendship and financial relationship with terrorist G. Gordon "headshots" Liddy. Since he is making money for right-wing radio stations, Gordon is by definition a good terrorist.
Btw, I find it interesting that this weekend Palin couldn't bring herself to call Women's clinic bombers and those that assassinate doctors terrorists, don't you?
What does it matter, to you William Ayers is a freedom fighter.
It's been fun flounder but my time will be better spent elsewhere for the next week.
Just remember, don't forget your tithing to Obama - he will be a demanding master!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SKINHEAD_PLOT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2008-10-27-16-21-21