watching the polls

McCain Maintains Slim Montana Lead

By Matthew Frank, 10-31-08

The third poll in two weeks suggests John McCain’s up by four points over Barack Obama in Montana.

From Rasmussen:

However, the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot adds an additional problem for the Republican hopeful. Six percent of McCain voters might vote for a third-party candidate while Obama faces no such threat.

Overall, two percent of the state’s voters are committed to voting for a third party candidate while two percent remain undecided.

If the election is perceived as being very close, most of those who currently lean in McCain’s direction would be likely to vote for the Republican candidate. However, the more it seems like Obama is going to win, the more likely it is that some of these voters will decide to file a protest vote.

The polling trends from Pollster.com:

Update: A Research 2000 poll released today also shows a four point advantage for McCain, 48 percent to 44 percent.

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