McCain Up Big in Montana, Poll Shows

By Matthew Frank, 9-24-08

A new CNN/Time Opinion Research poll indicates that John McCain holds a double-digit lead over Barack Obama in Montana, a state Obama has courted heavily in hopes of wresting its three electoral votes that haven’t gone to a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992.

The poll shows McCain up by 11—54 percent to 43 percent—in a head-to-head match up. With third-party candidates in the picture, McCain’s advantage is 49 percent to 40 percent. Ron Paul, who finished second in the Montana primary behind Mitt Romney, takes 7 percent.

All interviews were conducted by landline telephone between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23, and 903 registered voters and 737 likely voters were surveyed.

The poll corroborates one conducted about two weeks ago by Rasmussen Reports, which also showed an 11 point McCain lead. Early in the summer polls showed Obama up by as much as 5 percentage points.

The trend may be enough to convince the Obama campaign to scale back its ground game in Montana and dispatch resources to more competitive states with more electoral votes, as it’s done in Alaska and North Dakota.

Click here for trend lines from Pollster.com.

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