Colorado Polls Swing

Obama Enjoys Western Surge

By Richard Martin, 9-24-08

	And if elected, I won't raise lift-ticket prices

After his campaign swing through Colorado last week, putting down in Golden, Pueblo, and Grand Junction, Barack Obama enjoys a solid lead in polls in the state.

The latest poll from the independent surveyors at Quinnipiac University shows Obama with 49 percent of likely voters versus 45 percent for McCain. That’s a reversal of the findings from the week after the Republican convention, when Quinnipiac found McCain ahead.

Obama’s surge, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, speaking to the Grand Junction Sentinel, is due “to the importance of economic issues and the Democratic Party’s push to make the Rocky Mountain West a battleground this year.”

A closer look at the numbers, provided by Colorado Pols, reveals some telling details. Obama still trails among white voters, who back McCain 51 - 44 percent, while Hispanic voters overwhelmingly support Obama—68 - 26 percent. That disparity underlines the point I made in this space back in August, pre-conventions: “in the West, for certain, the biggest racial divide is not black-white but white-Hispanic.”

Obama has also won over, for the moment, middle-aged Westerners who would likely have voted Republican in most recent presidential elections. “Obama and McCain are tied 48 - 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 - 42 percent,” notes Colorado Pols.

Obama’s big lead among older voters and among Coloradoans of Hispanic descent could help tip the entire presidential election, since Colorado is among two or three key swing states this year.

“If you look at current polls, McCain looks like he is in serious trouble in states like Virginia and Colorado that he really needs to win in November,” writes John Judis on The New Republic’s political blog. The polling-analysis blog Five Thirty-Eight (named for the number of electoral college votes) lists Virginia and Colorado as the top 2 “tipping point states” and Colorado as the No. 1 state for Obama, and to a lesser degree McCain, to invest time & money into.

That makes the DNC’s decision to locate the convention in Denver even sharper, in hindsight.

There’s one other factor at work: the strong lead U.S. Rep. Mark Udall now shows over Republican Bob Schaffer. Udall is now up 48-40 percent, according to Quinnipiac, compared to a dead heat in mid-summer.

“If Udall blows out Schaffer, that could be a deciding factor in an Obama victory in November,” opines Colorado Pols. 

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