The Property Rights Revolt

Poll: Oregonians Regret Passing Measure 37


By Dan Richardson, 10-26-06

 
 

We Oregonians, hoping to fend off intrusive government, passed Measure 37 two years ago by a muscular majority — but we wouldn’t if the election were re-voted today.

That’s the upshot of a recent poll of 405 Oregon voters.

Voters would oppose Measure 37 today by 2-to-1, according to the poll by the lefty statistics-mongers at Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner. The turnaround in public perception is stunning; or, it would be if you haven’t been reading about the spawn of Measure 37. See, it’s hard to miss the point when you hear things like one Oregon farmer saying of a neighbor’s mega-development, “This is not what I voted for.”

The poll, showing what the pollsters called “buyer’s remorse,” comes out this week just days before voters around the West will cast ballots on similar property rights initiatives.

Measure 37, of course, is Oregon’s law that requires local governments to either pay property owners who have been kept from developing their land by land use restrictions, or else waive the restrictions altogether.

The theory is called “regulatory takings.” It’s hot stuff in Libertarian circles; packing an emotional punch, it passed easily in Oregon and has since made a hash of the state’s 30-year-old anti-sprawl rules. More than 2,200 Oregonians have filed Measure 37 development claims to date. A vast majority — something like 85 percent — of the claims are property owners wanting to divide their land with the intention of building multiple dwellings, mostly on land currently zoned for farms or forestry.

In November 2004, Oregon voters passed M-37 by 61-39 percent. According to the Greenberg poll — commissioned by the Izaak Walton League of America, and Defenders of Wildlife — voters would reject the measure today. Probably. The poll identified among total voters that 29 percent would vote yes, 48 percent no, and 21 percent are now undecided.

“In sum, this poll has found that Oregon voters have deep regrets over Measure 37 and if they could do it all over again, they would vote no and reject this initiative,” wrote the pollsters in their memo.

So the number of people opposed to M-37 has increased; the supporters have decreased dramatically, by more than half; but most of them are now simply undecided. So who knows? Another property rights campaign showing a little old lady crushed by the machinery of the liberal, central-planning bureaucrats — the same sort of heart-tugging spin seen in other states’ initiatives this fall — could swing those undecideds back into the “Hell, yeah!” category.

Which means, Oregonians would be split pretty evenly down the middle.

Still, that’s a change from the 61 percent majority vote that M-37 supporters have so-often touted.

Even before the entire impact of Measure 37 has yet to be seen, or the precise implications hammered out in court, property rights activists began hawking the “takings” idea around the West. Funded by the now-infamous New Yorker real estate developer Howie Rich, a cabal of Libertarian activists have put similar, or even more radical, “takings” initiatives on the ballot in Arizona (Proposition 207), California (Prop. 90), Idaho (Prop. 2), Montana (I-154), Nevada (“PISTOL”), and Washington state (I-933).

Measure 37 was a bad idea, a front for developers, and the “pay-or-waive” concept that animated it is both emotionally appealing and deeply flawed. And now, a majority of Oregonians seem to realize that.

I wonder if people in other states will, too, or if they'll be suckers like we were.

(You can read the complete poll memo, as a .pdf document, here.)



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